(S) YOUTH DISCUSS PLANS FOR "CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000464 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: (S) YOUTH DISCUSS PLANS FOR "CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE" CAMPAIGN Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. A prominent youth leader and activist claims that Conakry youth are planning a campaign of "civil disobedience" against the CNDD in the weeks ahead, characterized by tire burning and the forcible closure of key traffic circles in Conakry. Keyed into a national network of politically conscious youths, Contact claims that he can mobilize 10,000 youths in Conakry alone. Contact stated that the movement will be "spontaneous," but can be expected "soon." This latest youth movement may very well fall apart, as have similar initiatives over the past two years. However, participation in the January/February 2007 strike demonstrates just how politically potent the youth can be when they are able to unite. It remains to be seen whether or not they can do it this time around. END SUMMARY. -------------- A CAMPAIGN OF CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE -------------- ¶2. (S) Dansa Kourouma, youth leader and activist, told A/DCM on August 7 that he and others are planning to launch a campaign of "civil disobedience" against the CNDD in the coming weeks. He argued that the entire transition process is off track since it is clear that elections will not take place in 2009. "People are dreaming if they think we are actually going to vote in December," he said. ¶3. (S) According to Dansa, the only way to focus attention on the transition and the urgent need for elections is to "create a scandal." In order for people to realize that Guinea's youth are determined to fight for a better future, Dansa said they need to "shock" the population and the CNDD into action. ¶4. (S) When asked to describe what he meant by "civil disobedience," Dansa said youths plan to burn tires and block major traffic circles in order to shut down the city. (NOTE. Such demonstrations were common in Conakry during the last few months of the Conte regime. END NOTE). He said they discussed the option of peaceful marches and/or protests, but agreed that such tactics are no longer effective. "Dadis is not scared...if we are going to have any impact, we have to organize an insurrection," Dansa said. -------------- MOBILIZING GUINEA'S YOUTH -------------- ¶5. (S) Dansa claims that he is capable of mobilizing 10,000 youths in Conakry. Over the past year, he has been working to develop a youth leadership network throughout the country, a project that was partially funded by USAID, through IFES. This youth network has been successfully used as a mechanism for informing citizens on key issues, providing civic education, and encouraging youth participation in the electoral process and other forms of peaceful change. An unanticipated side benefit for Dansa is that he is now well known to a national communication network focused on the country's most politically conscious and active youths. Dansa claimed that Mouctar Diallo, the young leader of the New Democratic Forces (NFD) party, and Allesandre Camara, youth representative to the National Council for Civil Society Organizations, have also been involved in the recent discussions. ¶6. (S) With respect to timing, Dansa said they are planning to launch the campaign "soon," but that it will be a spontaneous movement. "We will make the call one morning and the streets will be blocked." -------------- WORKING FOR THE MILITARY, NOT AGAINST -------------- ¶7. (S) Cognizant of the risk of political violence at the hands of the military, Dansa said he is in regular contact with select military officers in an attempt to explain his group's motivations, and to try and minimize any potential backlash. Dansa claimed that his contacts are sympathetic to the youths' agenda and are eager for the transition to end. "We are not against the military, we are working for their interests too," Dansa said. -------------- COMMENT -------------- CONAKRY 00000464 002 OF 002 ¶8. (S) This is not the first time Dansa has talked about a youth movement to force political change. He was a key participant in discussions in September 2008 wherein youth were talking about launching a peaceful, sustained demonstration against the Conte regime. That effort fell apart a few weeks later due to disagreements among youth leaders and allegations of acceptance of bribes. As the youth quieted down, elements of the military started talking about a possible coup. When the coup took place in December, Dansa and his supporters were some of the first to take to the streets in celebration and support of the CNDD. Just a few weeks later, he met with A/DCM and described his profound disappointment with the military led transition, a disappointment that has turned into frustration as the transition drags on. ¶9. (S) This most recent youth movement may very well fall apart at the seams. Potentially, youth represent perhaps the most potent political voice in Guinea - if they can just hold themselves together long enough to make their voice heard. They were able to do so in January/February 2007 and people like Dansa Kourouma, Mouctar Diallo, and Allesandre Camara were at the center of the youth leadership at the time. It is unclear whether this particular movement is likely to gain momentum or not. ¶10. (S) Although Dansa indicates that the youths plan to launch their campaign "soon," heavy rains and the start of Ramadan (expected August 21) may encourage them to postpone until mid-September. Indications of progress towards the transition agenda in the weeks ahead may also influence youth discussions. Lack of progress towards elections, the continued impunity of the military, and suggestions of CNDD members as political candidates are all issues that could raise tempers. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE