FORCES VIVES LEADER WORRIED ABOUT DADIS RUNNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000463 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES LEADER WORRIED ABOUT DADIS RUNNING FOR ELECTION Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting with A/DCM, Forces Vives spokesman Jean-Marie Dore claimed that CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara is planning to present himself as a candidate in Guinea's upcoming election. Dore was visibly agitated at the prospect, claiming that such an announcement would bring about total "chaos" as the population is unlikely to accept another military candidate. At the same time, some contacts have been increasingly critical of Dore in recent months, arguing that he is playing both sides and possibly trying to curry favor with Dadis in order to bolster his own chances at the polls. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) A/DCM met with Forces Vives spokesman and opposition political leader Jean-Marie Dore on August 4 to discuss recent developments in Guinea. Dore heads the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG) party, which is perceived to enjoy significant support from the Forest Region. Dore is himself from the Forest Region, a commonality that he has used to build a relationship with CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara over the past seven months. Other members of Les Forces Vives have been increasingly suspicious of what they see as a growing "closeness" between Dore and Dadis ¶3. (C) When asked about Forces Vives activities, Dore said "everything is fine...but I am really just very worried about the current situation." Explaining, he said that the Forces Vives is committed to holding elections in 2009, but that the CNDD lacks the political will to make elections happen. According to Dore, the population is increasingly unhappy with the current situation and if they realize that elections will not happen, they will likely take to the streets in mass protests. ¶4. (C) Dore was also convinced that Dadis is preparing to present himself as a candidate for president. "Dadis is surrounded by people who are telling him that Sekou Toure held power for 26 years and Lansana Conte for 25 years...why should he not have the same thing?," Dore said. He also mentioned the recent creation of a new pro-CNDD political party (septel) as another indication of Dadis' intent. ¶5. (C) Dore told A/DCM "I tried to tell him (Dadis) that the smart thing to do would be to let me represent him for now." According to Dore, his UPG party cannot win a presidential election in the first vote, but he should have no problem winning the election during a run-off. "I told Dadis he should let me win...I am old and will only serve one term...then when it is time for elections again, the UPG will support him as a son of the Forest Region and he can take the presidency five years down the road." ¶6. (C) With respect to the French, Dore was convinced that France is pursuing an independent agenda in Guinea and will likely be willing to tolerate having Dadis as a candidate in order to serve their own undefined interests. Dore participated in Dadis' meetings with the French Secretary of State for Cooperation and claimed that Joyandet did not attempt to dissuade Dadis when he started alluding to a possible bid for the presidency. When asked what France's agenda might be, Dore could not formulate a clear answer. ¶7. (C) Clearly agitated about the question of Dadis' candidacy, Dore said "we need a high-level American personality to pass through Guinea and give a direct message to Dadis that his candidacy will not be acceptable." Dore argued that if Dadis does not get the message soon, the country risks falling into chaos. "The people absolutely will not accept another military candidate." He added that Forces Vives members are not even considering the possibility because they thought the issue had already been addressed. "If he goes through with this, he will be the source of great disorder - the international community must dissuade him," Dore said. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Embassy has been picking up other indications that Dadis and/or the CNDD may be actively strategizing about how to win the election, either by directly naming a candidate or by supporting a "puppet" candidate. However, several contacts have also suggested that Dore might be trying to put himself forward as the "puppet," and Dore's own comments to A/DCM lend support to this idea. Critics claim that Dore has become too close to Dadis, given his responsibility to the Forces Vives. One contact claimed that Dadis had given Dore CONAKRY 00000463 002 OF 002 a significant sum of money to construct a house in the Forest Region, a project that is already underway. ¶9. (C) Dore seemed genuinely worried about the possibility of Dadis presenting himself as a candidate. While Dore may be concerned about the general consequences for the country, he may also be concerned about what Dadis' candidacy implies for him personally. If Dadis runs, Dore would probably be put out of the picture. Available information suggests that Dore is playing a tricky game with Dadis, ingratiating himself an elderly, non-threatening advisor from Dadis' home region, while subtly trying to influence Dadis to support his own bid for the presidency. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE