FORCES VIVES LEADER WORRIED ABOUT DADIS RUNNING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000463

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES LEADER WORRIED ABOUT DADIS RUNNING
FOR ELECTION

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting with A/DCM, Forces Vives
spokesman Jean-Marie Dore claimed that CNDD President Moussa
Dadis Camara is planning to present himself as a candidate in
Guinea's upcoming election. Dore was visibly agitated at the
prospect, claiming that such an announcement would bring
about total "chaos" as the population is unlikely to accept
another military candidate. At the same time, some contacts
have been increasingly critical of Dore in recent months,
arguing that he is playing both sides and possibly trying to
curry favor with Dadis in order to bolster his own chances at
the polls. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A/DCM met with Forces Vives spokesman and opposition
political leader Jean-Marie Dore on August 4 to discuss
recent developments in Guinea. Dore heads the Union for
Guinean Progress (UPG) party, which is perceived to enjoy
significant support from the Forest Region. Dore is himself
from the Forest Region, a commonality that he has used to
build a relationship with CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara
over the past seven months. Other members of Les Forces
Vives have been increasingly suspicious of what they see as a
growing "closeness" between Dore and Dadis


3. (C) When asked about Forces Vives activities, Dore said
"everything is fine...but I am really just very worried about
the current situation." Explaining, he said that the Forces
Vives is committed to holding elections in 2009, but that the
CNDD lacks the political will to make elections happen.
According to Dore, the population is increasingly unhappy
with the current situation and if they realize that elections
will not happen, they will likely take to the streets in mass
protests.


4. (C) Dore was also convinced that Dadis is preparing to
present himself as a candidate for president. "Dadis is
surrounded by people who are telling him that Sekou Toure
held power for 26 years and Lansana Conte for 25 years...why
should he not have the same thing?," Dore said. He also
mentioned the recent creation of a new pro-CNDD political
party (septel) as another indication of Dadis' intent.


5. (C) Dore told A/DCM "I tried to tell him (Dadis) that the
smart thing to do would be to let me represent him for now."
According to Dore, his UPG party cannot win a presidential
election in the first vote, but he should have no problem
winning the election during a run-off. "I told Dadis he
should let me win...I am old and will only serve one
term...then when it is time for elections again, the UPG will
support him as a son of the Forest Region and he can take the
presidency five years down the road."


6. (C) With respect to the French, Dore was convinced that
France is pursuing an independent agenda in Guinea and will
likely be willing to tolerate having Dadis as a candidate in
order to serve their own undefined interests. Dore
participated in Dadis' meetings with the French Secretary of
State for Cooperation and claimed that Joyandet did not
attempt to dissuade Dadis when he started alluding to a
possible bid for the presidency. When asked what France's
agenda might be, Dore could not formulate a clear answer.


7. (C) Clearly agitated about the question of Dadis'
candidacy, Dore said "we need a high-level American
personality to pass through Guinea and give a direct message
to Dadis that his candidacy will not be acceptable." Dore
argued that if Dadis does not get the message soon, the
country risks falling into chaos. "The people absolutely
will not accept another military candidate." He added that
Forces Vives members are not even considering the possibility
because they thought the issue had already been addressed.
"If he goes through with this, he will be the source of great
disorder - the international community must dissuade him,"
Dore said.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Embassy has been picking up other indications that
Dadis and/or the CNDD may be actively strategizing about how
to win the election, either by directly naming a candidate or
by supporting a "puppet" candidate. However, several
contacts have also suggested that Dore might be trying to put
himself forward as the "puppet," and Dore's own comments to
A/DCM lend support to this idea. Critics claim that Dore has
become too close to Dadis, given his responsibility to the
Forces Vives. One contact claimed that Dadis had given Dore

CONAKRY 00000463 002 OF 002


a significant sum of money to construct a house in the Forest
Region, a project that is already underway.


9. (C) Dore seemed genuinely worried about the possibility
of Dadis presenting himself as a candidate. While Dore may
be concerned about the general consequences for the country,
he may also be concerned about what Dadis' candidacy implies
for him personally. If Dadis runs, Dore would probably be
put out of the picture. Available information suggests that
Dore is playing a tricky game with Dadis, ingratiating
himself an elderly, non-threatening advisor from Dadis' home
region, while subtly trying to influence Dadis to support his
own bid for the presidency. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE