YOUTHS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH LES FORCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000458

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: YOUTHS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH LES FORCES
VIVES

REF: CONAKRY 0447

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. Members of Les Forces Vives continue to
disagree over key transition issues including whether to hold
presidential or legislative elections first, and how to
handle constitutional reforms. While older, more seasoned
members are frustrated with the transition process (SEPTELS),
they seem to feel that Les Forces Vives is serving as a
relatively effective mechanism for pushing the transition
agenda. However, Guinea's youths are becoming increasingly
critical of the organization and especially its spokesperson,
Jean-Marie Dore (UPG). Some argue that personal political
agendas within Les Forces Vives may ultimately be sabotaging
the transition process. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A/DCM met with Mouctar Diallo, the young political
leader of the New Democratic Forces (NFD) party, on August 3
to discuss the political environment, particularly
indications of dissention within Les Forces Vives.
Subsequent conversations with other key contacts, including
Jean-Marie Dore (UPG),Sidya Toure (UFR),and youth leader
Dansa Kourouma, also touched on this issue.


3. (C) Mouctar Diallo was frustrated with Les Forces Vives,
the loose association of political and social actors that
serves as the counterweight to the CNDD, which he sees as a
deeply divided, ineffective organization lacking cohesion and
leadership. As he discussed the decision-making process
leading to the present iteration of the National Transition
Council (CNT) (reftel),Diallo described two clearly
different agendas. According to Diallo, approximately half
of the Forces Vives is pushing for elections in 2009 while
the other half prefers to wait until 2010. He put his own
NFD party on the 2009 side, along with Cellou Diallo's UFDG,
Alpha Conde's RPG, Mamadou Syllah's UDG, and Jean-Marie
Dore's UPG. Those pushing for 2010 (or giving lip service to
2009, but then putting up obstacles) reportedly include Sidya
Toure's UFR, Francois Fall's FUDEC, Ousmane Bah's UPR, the
labor unions, and the National Council of Civil Society
Organizations (CNOSC).


4. (C) Although everyone is still pushing for elections, the
"2010" group is more focused on revising the constitution.
Diallo claimed that civil society is particularly keen to get
a new constitution in place because they want to legalize
independent candidature so they can run for elections. Other
political parties are simply unprepared for elections (i.e.
unable to win them).


5. (C) Youth leader Dansa Kourouma seemed to share Mouctar
Diallo's frustration with Les Forces Vives, and in
particular, with its spokesperson, Jean-Marie Dore. "We no
longer have any confidence in Dore - he is too close to Dadis
and the CNDD," Dansa said. Continuing, he said that Dore
has been too "soft" on Dadis and is pursuing his own personal
interests at the expense of the Forces Vives. At one point,
Dansa referred to Dore as "Dadis' marionette." Other Embassy
contacts have also complained about Dore's leadership and his
seemingly close association with Dadis. Dansa indicated that
youth leaders are discussing ways to push Les Forces Vives to
select a different, more forceful spokesperson.


6. (C) Sidya Toure alluded to divisions within Les Forces
Vives, although he did not see these divisions as necessarily
blocking the organization's effectiveness. Sidya was in
favor of the CNT and of holding presidential elections in

2009. Jean-Marie Dore said that "everything is fine" with
Les Forces Vives and assured A/DCM that all of its members
are focused on holding elections in 2009. These seasoned
opposition leaders seemed more frustrated with the transition
process itself rather than the Forces Vives as an
organization (see SEPTELS).

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COMMENT
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7. (C) There have been divided opinions within Les Forces
Vives ever since the organization regrouped in January. It
seems that some of the older, more seasoned politicians are
more tolerant of these divisions, seeing them as natural and
healthy. However, the country's younger generation appears
increasingly frustrated. More than seven months into the
transition, they are eager for a more forceful approach and
may see the Forces Vives as more of a hindrance to the
transition process than a catalyst. They are also
increasingly mistrustful of the motivations of some of the

CONAKRY 00000458 002 OF 002


key members of the organization.


8. (C) The Forces Vives does tend to move sluggishly. While
everyone seems to want elections, they continue to disagree
over several key electoral issues, including whether to hold
presidential or legislative elections first, and how to
handle constitutional reforms. With a cultural preference
for consensus, decisions are slow to come and often represent
compromises that leave many members dissatisfied. END
COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE