YOUTHS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH LES FORCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000458 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: YOUTHS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH LES FORCES VIVES REF: CONAKRY 0447 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Members of Les Forces Vives continue to disagree over key transition issues including whether to hold presidential or legislative elections first, and how to handle constitutional reforms. While older, more seasoned members are frustrated with the transition process (SEPTELS), they seem to feel that Les Forces Vives is serving as a relatively effective mechanism for pushing the transition agenda. However, Guinea's youths are becoming increasingly critical of the organization and especially its spokesperson, Jean-Marie Dore (UPG). Some argue that personal political agendas within Les Forces Vives may ultimately be sabotaging the transition process. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) A/DCM met with Mouctar Diallo, the young political leader of the New Democratic Forces (NFD) party, on August 3 to discuss the political environment, particularly indications of dissention within Les Forces Vives. Subsequent conversations with other key contacts, including Jean-Marie Dore (UPG),Sidya Toure (UFR),and youth leader Dansa Kourouma, also touched on this issue. ¶3. (C) Mouctar Diallo was frustrated with Les Forces Vives, the loose association of political and social actors that serves as the counterweight to the CNDD, which he sees as a deeply divided, ineffective organization lacking cohesion and leadership. As he discussed the decision-making process leading to the present iteration of the National Transition Council (CNT) (reftel),Diallo described two clearly different agendas. According to Diallo, approximately half of the Forces Vives is pushing for elections in 2009 while the other half prefers to wait until 2010. He put his own NFD party on the 2009 side, along with Cellou Diallo's UFDG, Alpha Conde's RPG, Mamadou Syllah's UDG, and Jean-Marie Dore's UPG. Those pushing for 2010 (or giving lip service to 2009, but then putting up obstacles) reportedly include Sidya Toure's UFR, Francois Fall's FUDEC, Ousmane Bah's UPR, the labor unions, and the National Council of Civil Society Organizations (CNOSC). ¶4. (C) Although everyone is still pushing for elections, the "2010" group is more focused on revising the constitution. Diallo claimed that civil society is particularly keen to get a new constitution in place because they want to legalize independent candidature so they can run for elections. Other political parties are simply unprepared for elections (i.e. unable to win them). ¶5. (C) Youth leader Dansa Kourouma seemed to share Mouctar Diallo's frustration with Les Forces Vives, and in particular, with its spokesperson, Jean-Marie Dore. "We no longer have any confidence in Dore - he is too close to Dadis and the CNDD," Dansa said. Continuing, he said that Dore has been too "soft" on Dadis and is pursuing his own personal interests at the expense of the Forces Vives. At one point, Dansa referred to Dore as "Dadis' marionette." Other Embassy contacts have also complained about Dore's leadership and his seemingly close association with Dadis. Dansa indicated that youth leaders are discussing ways to push Les Forces Vives to select a different, more forceful spokesperson. ¶6. (C) Sidya Toure alluded to divisions within Les Forces Vives, although he did not see these divisions as necessarily blocking the organization's effectiveness. Sidya was in favor of the CNT and of holding presidential elections in ¶2009. Jean-Marie Dore said that "everything is fine" with Les Forces Vives and assured A/DCM that all of its members are focused on holding elections in 2009. These seasoned opposition leaders seemed more frustrated with the transition process itself rather than the Forces Vives as an organization (see SEPTELS). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) There have been divided opinions within Les Forces Vives ever since the organization regrouped in January. It seems that some of the older, more seasoned politicians are more tolerant of these divisions, seeing them as natural and healthy. However, the country's younger generation appears increasingly frustrated. More than seven months into the transition, they are eager for a more forceful approach and may see the Forces Vives as more of a hindrance to the transition process than a catalyst. They are also increasingly mistrustful of the motivations of some of the CONAKRY 00000458 002 OF 002 key members of the organization. ¶8. (C) The Forces Vives does tend to move sluggishly. While everyone seems to want elections, they continue to disagree over several key electoral issues, including whether to hold presidential or legislative elections first, and how to handle constitutional reforms. With a cultural preference for consensus, decisions are slow to come and often represent compromises that leave many members dissatisfied. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE