CONTACT GROUP ANNOUNCES SUFFICIENT FUNDING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000448

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM GV
SUBJECT: CONTACT GROUP ANNOUNCES SUFFICIENT FUNDING FOR
ELECTIONS IN 2009

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent C. Brokenshire for Reason 1.4 B/D


1. (U) Summary: Donors comprising the International Contact
Group for Guinea released a communique July 31 in Conakry
announcing sufficient funding for Guinea's national assembly
and presidential elections. The communique is intended to
make clear to the CNDD and the Guinean public that funding is
not an obstacle for elections tentatively scheduled for 2009.
The communique is in direct response to spurious government
claims that the international community has failed to honored
its pledge to help fund Guinea's elections. This action is
the latest demonstration of the contact's group's resolve and
cohesiveness in taking a firmer stand for democratic rule in
Guinea. End Summary.


2. (U) After a careful review of Guinea's electoral finances,
including international donations, government pledges, and
anticipated expenses, representatives of major donors
comprising the International Contact group for Guinea (ICG-G)
issued a communique July 31 making clear that a financial gap
no longer exists for Guinea's presidential and national
assembly elections. The communique, drafted and released by
the Spanish Ambassador, representing the EU presidency in
Guinea, amounts to a direct refutation of frequent government
claims that elections remain doubtful due to a lack of
international funding.


3. (U) In a roundtable analysis of the state of Guinea's
electoral finances, the local group, which comprised
representatives of Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Japan,
the EU and UN, noted recent cost saving in Guinea's electoral
budget, and confirmed additional donor contributions. When
combined, these two factors have almost entirely eliminated
the election deficit which stood at $20 million just three
months ago.


4. (U) Cost cutting: Prior to the ICG-G's July 16-17 visit,
Guinea's independent electoral commission (CENI) reviewed the
government's election budget, and found it could save $10
million by enacting a number of moderate measures such as
shortening the electoral process to December, tightening its
own belt and reducing the costs of registering Guineans
living abroad. This brought elections costs from $38 million
to $28.5 million.


5. (U) Additional contributions: Donors also rallied with
additional funding, led by the EU with $7.9 million, the U.S.
with $4.9 million, and Japan with 1.8 million. U.S. funding
will be channeled through USAID grantees. The government of
Guinea has pledged $5.3 million toward elections. However,
further international pressure will likely be required to
press the GoG to make good on its commitment. The bottom
line, however, is that CENI cost saving measures combined
with additional international funding have reduced the
electoral funding gap to $1.35 million. Budget and electoral
officials are confident that further cost-saving can reduce
this deficit to nil.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) With funding reasonably secure, elections in Guinea
now come down to a question of political will on the part of
the government and key political actors. Based on past
performance, we may reasonably assume that junta leader
Moussa Dadis Camara and the ruling CNDD will seize every
opportunity to delay Guinea's elections. Should no
opportunities present themselves, they will almost certainly
create their own opportunities.


7. (C) The ICG-G is itself emerging as a persuasive force in
Guinea's elections. With active participation of the AU,
ECOWAS, UN, EU, World Bank and IMF, as well the U.S., France,
UK, Germany, Japan, Spain, Russia and (sometimes) China, it
represents a broad and diverse front. Over the past few
months it has demonstrated its resolve to press Dadis and the
CNDD for elections in 2009 and urge critical electoral
reforms. It's actions have the strong backing of the Forces
Vives and other key players. The ICG-G's determination to see
elections through is largely based on clear indications that
without concerted international pressure Guinea will likely
experience another long-standing military dictatorship or
stumble toward the strife and divisions of a failed state.
End Comment





CONAKRY 00000448 002 OF 002


BROKENSHIRE