CONTACT GROUP ANNOUNCES SUFFICIENT FUNDING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000448 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM GV SUBJECT: CONTACT GROUP ANNOUNCES SUFFICIENT FUNDING FOR ELECTIONS IN 2009 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent C. Brokenshire for Reason 1.4 B/D ¶1. (U) Summary: Donors comprising the International Contact Group for Guinea released a communique July 31 in Conakry announcing sufficient funding for Guinea's national assembly and presidential elections. The communique is intended to make clear to the CNDD and the Guinean public that funding is not an obstacle for elections tentatively scheduled for 2009. The communique is in direct response to spurious government claims that the international community has failed to honored its pledge to help fund Guinea's elections. This action is the latest demonstration of the contact's group's resolve and cohesiveness in taking a firmer stand for democratic rule in Guinea. End Summary. ¶2. (U) After a careful review of Guinea's electoral finances, including international donations, government pledges, and anticipated expenses, representatives of major donors comprising the International Contact group for Guinea (ICG-G) issued a communique July 31 making clear that a financial gap no longer exists for Guinea's presidential and national assembly elections. The communique, drafted and released by the Spanish Ambassador, representing the EU presidency in Guinea, amounts to a direct refutation of frequent government claims that elections remain doubtful due to a lack of international funding. ¶3. (U) In a roundtable analysis of the state of Guinea's electoral finances, the local group, which comprised representatives of Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Japan, the EU and UN, noted recent cost saving in Guinea's electoral budget, and confirmed additional donor contributions. When combined, these two factors have almost entirely eliminated the election deficit which stood at $20 million just three months ago. ¶4. (U) Cost cutting: Prior to the ICG-G's July 16-17 visit, Guinea's independent electoral commission (CENI) reviewed the government's election budget, and found it could save $10 million by enacting a number of moderate measures such as shortening the electoral process to December, tightening its own belt and reducing the costs of registering Guineans living abroad. This brought elections costs from $38 million to $28.5 million. ¶5. (U) Additional contributions: Donors also rallied with additional funding, led by the EU with $7.9 million, the U.S. with $4.9 million, and Japan with 1.8 million. U.S. funding will be channeled through USAID grantees. The government of Guinea has pledged $5.3 million toward elections. However, further international pressure will likely be required to press the GoG to make good on its commitment. The bottom line, however, is that CENI cost saving measures combined with additional international funding have reduced the electoral funding gap to $1.35 million. Budget and electoral officials are confident that further cost-saving can reduce this deficit to nil. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) With funding reasonably secure, elections in Guinea now come down to a question of political will on the part of the government and key political actors. Based on past performance, we may reasonably assume that junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara and the ruling CNDD will seize every opportunity to delay Guinea's elections. Should no opportunities present themselves, they will almost certainly create their own opportunities. ¶7. (C) The ICG-G is itself emerging as a persuasive force in Guinea's elections. With active participation of the AU, ECOWAS, UN, EU, World Bank and IMF, as well the U.S., France, UK, Germany, Japan, Spain, Russia and (sometimes) China, it represents a broad and diverse front. Over the past few months it has demonstrated its resolve to press Dadis and the CNDD for elections in 2009 and urge critical electoral reforms. It's actions have the strong backing of the Forces Vives and other key players. The ICG-G's determination to see elections through is largely based on clear indications that without concerted international pressure Guinea will likely experience another long-standing military dictatorship or stumble toward the strife and divisions of a failed state. End Comment CONAKRY 00000448 002 OF 002 BROKENSHIRE