INCHING TOWARDS A NATIONAL TRANSITION COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000447 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: INCHING TOWARDS A NATIONAL TRANSITION COUNCIL Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. As the weeks steadily march on, Guinea's Forces Vives continue to debate the need for and composition of a National Transition Council (CNT). The CNDD is responsible for some of the delay, but the Forces Vives deserve blame as well. Dadis signed a decree on July 27 authorizing the creation of the CNT (for the third time),but contacts are uncertain as to whether or not this latest decree is really the final word. In its newest iteration, the CNT is to be comprised of 159 members and is tasked with reviewing Guinea's legal code over a period of 30 days only. The CNT is expected to issue a list of recommendations, but it is unclear how those recommendations will be implemented. Half of the Forces Vives seem content with the July 27 decree while the other half seems to see the whole exercise as a waste of time. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE CNT SAGA -------------- ¶2. (SBU) One of the conditions of Les Forces Vives' transition plan, which they presented to Dadis in March, was the establishment of a National Transition Council (CNT). Dadis accepted the proposal a few weeks later, but did not formally establish the CNT Until May, on the eve of a visit from the International Contact Group. However, Les Forces Vives was not satisfied with how the CNT was initially structured and demanded that the concept be reworked. Now in the eighth month of what is supposed to be a twelve-month transition period, Guineans are still debating the same transition questions. ¶3. (SBU) During the July International Contact Group meeting, Les Forces Vives stated that its members could not come to a consensus on key questions surrounding the CNT issue, but in order to avoid dissension and problems in the future, would willingly consider a new CNT proposal from the CNDD. According to a Forces Vives contact, CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara sent them a signed ordinance authorizing the creation of the CNT on July 17. However, shortly after it was delivered, a CNDD member apparently said Dadis had changed his mind and wanted further input from Les Forces Vives, input that was reportedly provided last week. Dadis issued a new decree on July 26. Political leader Sidya Toure (UFR party) told Pol/Econ Chief that the main issues had been resolved from the perspective of the Forces Vives, but that it still is not clear whether or not the July 26 decree will end up being the final document. -------------- THE LATEST -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In the decree signed July 27, the CNT is tasked with reviewing Guinea's code of laws, including the electoral code. The Council is to comprise 159 members, which includes specific numbers of representatives from political parties, civil society, the security sector, the legal system, women's organizations, youth organizations, the media, and many others. The CNT is to meet for 30 days only and any operating funds will be provided by the CNDD. All members will be paid for their services. ¶5. (SBU) Over the past seven months of discussion, the size of the theoretical CNT has steadily grown. It was initially envisioned to comprise about 75 members, was then expanded to 114 (like the dissolved National Assembly),went up to 132 in the July 17 decree, and has now hit 159, although a copy obtained from the UN had 159 scratched out and replaced with ¶163. Critics have commented that the CNT will ultimately be too large and unwieldy to do its stated job. These critics add that instead of technical experts, the CNT is really just a hodgepodge of socio-political actors who will never be able to come to a consensus on the key issues. ¶6. (SBU) The purpose of the CNT has also evolved. In the beginning, it was to be a full legislative institution that would balance the CNDD. Just two weeks ago, the Forces Vives were still essentially talking about a constitutional convention. Now its mandate is to review the legal texts. -------------- DIVIDED OPINIONS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Mouctar Diallo, the young leader of the NFD party (New Democratic Forces),told Pol/Econ Chief that the CNT is a waste of time and will essentially serve as yet another CONAKRY 00000447 002 OF 002 tool the CNDD can use to delay elections. However, Sidya Toure felt that the CNT is an important step that will bring elections closer. He said the Council should easily fulfill its mandate within 30 days, thereby addressing some of the key legal challenges that are currently making many people reluctant to head to the polls, such as term limits and definitions of presidential powers. ¶8. (SBU) In the midst of all this discussion of a CNT, the Forces Vives also advocated for the creation of an Ad-Hoc Committee, which was created on July 14 and consists of 32 members. According to sources, certain members of the Forces Vives pushed for this institution because they felt they weren't getting anywhere with the CNT and they needed "something" so they could review the election timeline. Reportedly, the Committee's job is to review the "obstacles" to elections and make a series of recommendations. With a mandate of ten days only, the Committee has held one meeting so far according to Sidya Toure. Contacts say they expect little to come out of the Ad-Hoc Committee. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The seven month struggle to define and create a transition council serves as an excellent example of why Guinea is moving so slowly towards elections. The Forces Vives may deserve just as much of the blame as the military junta. They continue to disagree over what the CNT should do, how it should be structured, and who should be on it. Some of them are still arguing over whether or not it is even still relevant to have one. In the meantime, Dadis is well positioned to simply keep tossing proposals back to them while claiming that he has their best interests at heart. ¶10. (C) The end result is that Guineans are still talking about how to organize a transition that is supposedly closer to its conclusion than it is to its beginning. Even if everyone agrees that the latest iteration of the CNT is the one everyone is comfortable with, it is likely to take several weeks, if not longer, just to name delegates. Provided the Council is able to agree on a set of recommendations after one month of meetings, it is not clear how these recommendations would be implemented, especially since they would likely involve changes to the legal code. Since those first few post-coup weeks, contacts have repeatedly said the issues to be addressed by the CNT are "simple" and will be taken care of quickly. Seven months later, they are still saying the same thing. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE