INCHING TOWARDS A NATIONAL TRANSITION COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000447

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: INCHING TOWARDS A NATIONAL TRANSITION COUNCIL

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. As the weeks steadily march on, Guinea's
Forces Vives continue to debate the need for and composition
of a National Transition Council (CNT). The CNDD is
responsible for some of the delay, but the Forces Vives
deserve blame as well. Dadis signed a decree on July 27
authorizing the creation of the CNT (for the third time),but
contacts are uncertain as to whether or not this latest
decree is really the final word. In its newest iteration,
the CNT is to be comprised of 159 members and is tasked with
reviewing Guinea's legal code over a period of 30 days only.
The CNT is expected to issue a list of recommendations, but
it is unclear how those recommendations will be implemented.
Half of the Forces Vives seem content with the July 27 decree
while the other half seems to see the whole exercise as a
waste of time. END SUMMARY.

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THE CNT SAGA
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2. (SBU) One of the conditions of Les Forces Vives'
transition plan, which they presented to Dadis in March, was
the establishment of a National Transition Council (CNT).
Dadis accepted the proposal a few weeks later, but did not
formally establish the CNT Until May, on the eve of a visit
from the International Contact Group. However, Les Forces
Vives was not satisfied with how the CNT was initially
structured and demanded that the concept be reworked. Now in
the eighth month of what is supposed to be a twelve-month
transition period, Guineans are still debating the same
transition questions.


3. (SBU) During the July International Contact Group
meeting, Les Forces Vives stated that its members could not
come to a consensus on key questions surrounding the CNT
issue, but in order to avoid dissension and problems in the
future, would willingly consider a new CNT proposal from the
CNDD. According to a Forces Vives contact, CNDD President
Moussa Dadis Camara sent them a signed ordinance authorizing
the creation of the CNT on July 17. However, shortly after
it was delivered, a CNDD member apparently said Dadis had
changed his mind and wanted further input from Les Forces
Vives, input that was reportedly provided last week. Dadis
issued a new decree on July 26. Political leader Sidya Toure
(UFR party) told Pol/Econ Chief that the main issues had been
resolved from the perspective of the Forces Vives, but that
it still is not clear whether or not the July 26 decree will
end up being the final document.

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THE LATEST
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4. (SBU) In the decree signed July 27, the CNT is tasked
with reviewing Guinea's code of laws, including the electoral
code. The Council is to comprise 159 members, which includes
specific numbers of representatives from political parties,
civil society, the security sector, the legal system, women's
organizations, youth organizations, the media, and many
others. The CNT is to meet for 30 days only and any
operating funds will be provided by the CNDD. All members
will be paid for their services.


5. (SBU) Over the past seven months of discussion, the size
of the theoretical CNT has steadily grown. It was initially
envisioned to comprise about 75 members, was then expanded to
114 (like the dissolved National Assembly),went up to 132 in
the July 17 decree, and has now hit 159, although a copy
obtained from the UN had 159 scratched out and replaced with

163. Critics have commented that the CNT will ultimately be
too large and unwieldy to do its stated job. These critics
add that instead of technical experts, the CNT is really just
a hodgepodge of socio-political actors who will never be able
to come to a consensus on the key issues.


6. (SBU) The purpose of the CNT has also evolved. In the
beginning, it was to be a full legislative institution that
would balance the CNDD. Just two weeks ago, the Forces Vives
were still essentially talking about a constitutional
convention. Now its mandate is to review the legal texts.

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DIVIDED OPINIONS
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7. (SBU) Mouctar Diallo, the young leader of the NFD party
(New Democratic Forces),told Pol/Econ Chief that the CNT is
a waste of time and will essentially serve as yet another

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tool the CNDD can use to delay elections. However, Sidya
Toure felt that the CNT is an important step that will bring
elections closer. He said the Council should easily fulfill
its mandate within 30 days, thereby addressing some of the
key legal challenges that are currently making many people
reluctant to head to the polls, such as term limits and
definitions of presidential powers.


8. (SBU) In the midst of all this discussion of a CNT, the
Forces Vives also advocated for the creation of an Ad-Hoc
Committee, which was created on July 14 and consists of 32
members. According to sources, certain members of the Forces
Vives pushed for this institution because they felt they
weren't getting anywhere with the CNT and they needed
"something" so they could review the election timeline.
Reportedly, the Committee's job is to review the "obstacles"
to elections and make a series of recommendations. With a
mandate of ten days only, the Committee has held one meeting
so far according to Sidya Toure. Contacts say they expect
little to come out of the Ad-Hoc Committee.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The seven month struggle to define and create a
transition council serves as an excellent example of why
Guinea is moving so slowly towards elections. The Forces
Vives may deserve just as much of the blame as the military
junta. They continue to disagree over what the CNT should
do, how it should be structured, and who should be on it.
Some of them are still arguing over whether or not it is even
still relevant to have one. In the meantime, Dadis is well
positioned to simply keep tossing proposals back to them
while claiming that he has their best interests at heart.


10. (C) The end result is that Guineans are still talking
about how to organize a transition that is supposedly closer
to its conclusion than it is to its beginning. Even if
everyone agrees that the latest iteration of the CNT is the
one everyone is comfortable with, it is likely to take
several weeks, if not longer, just to name delegates.
Provided the Council is able to agree on a set of
recommendations after one month of meetings, it is not clear
how these recommendations would be implemented, especially
since they would likely involve changes to the legal code.
Since those first few post-coup weeks, contacts have
repeatedly said the issues to be addressed by the CNT are
"simple" and will be taken care of quickly. Seven months
later, they are still saying the same thing. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE