INSIDE LOOK AT A DIPLOMATIC DEBACLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000432

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV GV
SUBJECT: INSIDE LOOK AT A DIPLOMATIC DEBACLE

REF: A. CONAKRY 423

B. CONAKRY 400

C. CONAKRY 408

D. FREETOWN 280

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent C. Brokenshire for Reason 1.4 B/D


1. (C) Summary: A closer examination of the July 11 CNDD
communiqu, which placed Guinea's military on a high state of
alert following alleged threats to the country's borders,
provides a revealing look into the dysfunction and
miscommunications of Guinea's current military government and
the impulsive nature of the man who leads it. End Summary

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THE NARCOS ARE COMING....
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2. (C) During a recent conversation at a diplomatic
reception, a career officer in Guinea's MFA, El Hadj Naby
Dina Soumah, told Charge that the CNDD's July 11 communiqu
caught Guinea's Foreign Ministry by complete surprise. The
communiqu, which was read by junta leader Moussa Dadis
Camara over national television, stated that troops financed
by narco-traffickers were massing along Guinea's borders with
Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Liberia, and were poised to
strike. Dadis announced he was placing Guinea's military on
high alert to thwart the perceived threat.


3. (C) The Guinean public has become accustomed to the antics
of Dadis and did not react to his alarms with any concern.
Nearly every observer of regional events quickly surmised
that Dadis had invented this new menace either to focus the
military's attention on the border regions and away from its
own ethnic worries or as an artifice to delay elections.
Across the spectrum of Guinean society, Dadis quickly became
the butt of ridicule. Note: There were reports of an incident
involving gunfire along Guinea's border with Guinea Bissau.
However, nothing has surfaced to suggest a possible invasion
or even a serious threat. End Note.

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REGIONAL EFFECTS
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4. (C) While the communiqu stirred laughter and head shaking
among the populace, Guinea's Foreign Ministry found itself
facing a serious international incident involving three heads
of state and five of the six countries on its borders. "The
CNDD did not inform us about the border issue," said Naby.
"They did not ask us to clear on the communiqu and they did
not ask for our opinion."


5. (C) According to Naby, the MFA had been negotiating with
neighboring states Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Cote d'Ivoire
on the venue for the Mano River Union Summit. During this
summit the presidency of the Mano River Union was to be
passed from Liberia to Guinea. The summit was originally
scheduled to take place in Liberia. According to Naby, Dadis
did not feel secure enough in power to leave the country, and
insisted on changing the venue to Guinea. The Liberians
graciously accommodated the request and informed the other
nations. Sierra Leone president Ernest Koroma was scheduled
to arrive in Conakry on July 13, while President Sirleaf
Johnson made arrangements to travel to Guinea the following
day accompanied by Cote d'Ivoire's Laurent Gbagbo. Then came
the communiqu.


6. (C) "Imagine what Sirleaf Johnson must have felt," said
Naby. "After offering to move the summit to Conakry she hears
that Guinea has placed its military forces along Liberia's
border on a state of high alert for reasons that are quite
ridiculous." While the communiqu was seen as another CNDD
bungle by the populace, it "scared all of our neighbors,"
said Naby.


7. (C) The communiqu also resulted in the cancellation of
the summit. "Gbagbo heard that narco-traffickers were in
control of our border areas and asked for assurances of
security," said Naby. When the Guinean Government was
reportedly unable to provide a satisfactory response, Gbagbo
canceled his visit. Soon after, Sirleaf Johnson also
canceled, saying she would not attend without Gbagbo. This
left Sierra Leone's Ernest Koroma waiting on the tarmac in
Conakry for the Godot-like delegations from Liberia and Cote
d'Ivoire to arrive. Meanwhile, Senegal, Guinea Bissau and
Liberia all denied any narco-military activity along their
borders with Guinea.

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CONAKRY 00000432 002 OF 002


DAMAGE CONTROL SPARKS MORE CONTROVERSY
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8. (C) Seeing that the communiqu was setting off
international alarms abroad and laughter at home, Dadis tried
to downplay its significance, which created further
embarrassments. He claimed it dealt purely with military
matters too technical for civilian comprehension. When this
failed to quieten the chuckles of disbelievers, he threatened
to jail anyone who criticized the communiqu, particularly
members of political parties. This didn't placate anyone but
it did bring human rights groups into the picture in defense
of free speech.


9. (C) Dadis has reportedly grown tired of discussing the
communiqu. During the visit of the International Contact
Group (Ref A),he mentioned the communiqu only to say that
if anyone attempts to use it has a tool to block elections he
would "pursue them and punish them." He then quickly changed
the subject.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Little apparent thinking beyond the impulsive went
into the formulation of the communiqu. Neither is there
evidence to suggest that any consideration was given to its
possible consequences, either domestic, regional or
international. Though the MFA could have warned Dadis of dire
consequences of broadcasting such a volatile message in the
midst of Mano River Summit negotiations, its views were
apparently never considered. This is not the first time that
Dadis has launched new initiatives without consulting the
experts at hand. In this case, he has so alienated the MFA
that Guinean diplomats in Conakry routinely approach US
counterparts to state that their president is a national
embarrassment.


11. (C) The incident also points to disturbing flaws in the
government's command structure. Perhaps the most notable is
Dadis' penchant for making on-the-spot decisions without due
consultation or consideration of the consequences. He does
this quite frequently, with the result that he has built up a
steady record of taking decisions based on incomplete
information and little debate. The second is the fear that
grips his advisers whenever there is unpleasant news or
dissenting advice to give Dadis. We have received repeated
reports of this. Their ensuing silence on this score has
created a bubble of infallibility around Dadis. Dadis
apparently spends a great deal of time in this bubble
convinced he is right on all counts. Only the occasional
uproar from the population and or weary sigh from
international community offers him hints of a different
reality lying beyond.


12. (U) Embassy Conakry will continue to collaborate with the
international community and local partners to impress upon
Dadis and the CNDD that free and fair elections offer the
best chance to achieve political and economic stability.
Dadis has publicly committed Guinea to elections in 2009. On
this matter he has made the right decision. We will work with
our partners to assure him of this, and support efforts to
see it through.



BROKENSHIRE