GUINEAN ALERT LIKELY A POLITICAL PLOY

S E C R E T CONAKRY 000403 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PBTS PINS PREL KPAO XA GV SUBJECT: GUINEAN ALERT LIKELY A POLITICAL PLOY REF: CONAKRY 00400 Classified By: Andrew J. McLean for reason 1.4 B/D ¶1. (S) Summary: On Saturday, July 11, RTG national television and radio read a communique from the CNDD stating that the army has been placed on a state of alert. The communique said troops financed by narco-traffickers were amassed along the Guinean borders with Guinea-Bissau, the Cassamance region of Senegal, and Liberia. This alert comes as there are reports of ethnic strife and divisions in the military that could pose a threat to the stability of the nation. There are reports of two Guinean convoys being sent to separate bases in Guinea, but no reports of incidents along Guinea's borders. The Embassy, other diplomatic missions, and members of Guinean civil society believe that this alert is a diversion to rally support for Dadis and the CNDD. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As soon as the communique was read on national radio the Embassy began closely monitoring the situation. The Charge d'Affaires called a meeting at 2200 GMT with the RAO, DAO and RSO. It was agreed that this was likely a political ploy to shore up support for Dadis and the CNDD. The Charge spoke with other members of the diplomatic corps who also agreed that this was a political move. DAO received reports of two Guinean convoys being sent to bases in Boke and Kindia. DAO has consulted with DOD colleagues in neighboring countries and none are reporting armed groups, financed by narco-traffickers, making threats against Guinea. ¶3. (U) The Embassy monitored the media to determine popular reaction to the communique. Most local media reported the communique with little or no commentary. There was no other reporting of military movements along the border other than what was in the communique. RTG itself read the communique and then went into a lengthy report about an electricity and water meeting Dadis held the day before. During that meeting, Dadis did not mention any trouble along the border (Septel). ¶4. (U) Guinean websites continue to disparage the communique. Guinea-forum.org calls it another lie from the CNDD. (Note: Guinea-forum has been a forum for military officers to vent their frustration against the CNDD anonymously.) Guineenews.org asks if the communique is a hoax and notes the dwindling popularity of the CNDD among ordinary Guineans. Agence France Presse (AFP) quotes an unidentified civil society leader as saying this "is just a diversion that is not fooling anyone." An anonymous trade unionist told AFP, "Guineans are not taken in by (the communique)." An unidentified opposition politician said, "The CNDD wants to justify its grip on power instead of holding elections." ¶5. (S) Comment: The consensus among the Embassy Pol-Mil team is similar to what is reported in the media, that this is a political ploy and a red herring for other possible maneuvers by the CNDD. Recently there have been reports of possible ethnic tensions in the Guinean military, with Susu and Forrestiers soldiers lining up with Minister of Presidential Security Claude Pivi and Malinke troops lining up behind Defense Minister Konate (Reftel). This alert may be an attempt by Dadis to keep his rivals occupied during this tense period. On Saturday afternoon before the communique was read fighter jets were seen circling over Conakry. Guinean military sources say these were maintenance flights, however it is very unusual to see this kind of military activity in Conakry. End comment. BROKENSHIRE