REPORTED INCREASE IN MILITARY TENSION NOT VISIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000400

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: REPORTED INCREASE IN MILITARY TENSION NOT VISIBLE
ON THE STREETS OF CONAKRY

Classified By: POLOFF JULIA TULLY FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to information obtained by
Embassy's DAO, some elements of the military appear to be
solidifying alliances with either Captain Jean Claude Pivi or
the Minister of Defense Sekouba Konate. Military sources
agree that tensions within the army are very high, though
there is little evidence of this in the street and few
Guineans outside military and government circles appear to be
aware of it. An Embassy EAC meeting on July 7 and a follow-up
meeting on July 10 reviewed preparedness and safety
guidelines, as well as indicators for potential military
violence. Conakry, however, remains peaceful. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Increased reports of divisions within the Guinean
military have surfaced more forcefully this week although
little evidence of this conflict is visible on Conakry's
streets. According to Embassy DAO, factions of the Guinean
Armed Forces appear to be aligning themselves with either the
Minister of Presidential Security, Captain Jean Claude Pivi,
or the Minister of Defense, Sekouba Konate. Sousou officers
are reported to be supporting Pivi in an alliance with
military from the Forest Region, while Malinke officers are
said to have gone over to Konate. During the early hours of
July 6 and 7 patrols from both factions conducted
reconnaissances on each other's positions, further
heightening speculation of a possible rift within the
military.


3. (C) The information DAO obtained is based on close
military contacts and other sources, but has not been
convincingly corroborated by non-military, non-GOG contacts
of the Embassy. Military sources emphasize, however, that the
situation in the armed forces appears tense, leading most to
believe a combustible mix is either gathering or is already
present. What might spark a military clash and whether or not
it could lead to broader civilian unrest is unknown at this
point. The timing is also an open question, with some sources
claiming an imminent conflict, while others see an event in
the more distant future.

-------------- -
Ethnic Military Divisions Will Lead to Strife
-------------- -


4. (C) On July 7, an Embassy contact who is also a CNDD
sympathizer and government official, said he sees the
military becoming more and more divided along ethnic lines.
He described military forces as bored, underpaid, and
over-armed. This combination, the contact believes, could
quickly deteriorate and fracture along ethnic lines if it is
not resolved. He urged the U.S. to focus on restructuring the
Guinean military rather than pushing for elections. If the
army is not restructured, he added with a sense of urgency,
"we are sitting on a bomb - we are no different than Sierra
Leone or Liberia." He concluded by minimizing Dadis's
presidency, waving his hand dismissively, "Forget about Dadis
-- that's not the main concern."

5. (C) That warnings of an impending clash are intentionally
being passed to us in order to influence U.S. policy vis a
vis the CNDD cannot be discounted.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Divisions within the military have been observed even
before the junta took power but were primarily between
generations. Since the coup,however, loyalties to Dadis,
Pivi, Konate and Tiegboro have fueled a lack of military
discipline and a culture of impunity that now permeates the
GAF. Recent shifts in military alliances are, therefore, not
surprising, but the emphasis on ethnic divisions is more
troubling. Conakry appears calm and most Guineans seem
unaware of the military maneuverings. Nevertheless, at an EAC
meeting on July 7, Embassy preparedness and safety guidelines
were reviewed and a warden message was issued. During a
follow-up EAC meeting on July 10, the situation was again
reviewed and no new information was presented. While there
is reason for concern, daily life in Conakry remains for the
present unaffected. END COMMENT.


BROKENSHIRE