POLITICAL PARTIES MULTIPLY IN UNCERTAIN POLITICAL

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000345

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTIES MULTIPLY IN UNCERTAIN POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT


1. (U) According to contacts, there are now approximately 75
political parties officially registered with the Ministry of
Territorial Administration and Political Affairs. Before the
coup, there were 47 official parties in Guinea although some
sources indicate that there were a few more "unofficial"
parties. Traditionally speaking, Guinean political parties
are generally organized around a key political personality,
often with specific ethnic ties. Guinea's newest parties are
no exceptions.


2. (U) Newcomers to the political arena include former Prime
Minister Francois Fall, controversial millionaire Mamadou
Syllah, former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate, and former
Secretary General of the Presidency Ibrahima Keira.
Political rallies are increasingly common with large
gatherings of citizens sporting t-shirts or hats with their
candidate's picture prominently displayed across the front.
Party offices are also springing up all over Conakry. New,
high profile political personalities, such as the ones listed
above, are making their voices heard, appearing often in the
printed press and broadcast media.


3. (SBU) Despite this seemingly dramatic increase in
political interest, Guinea's political leaders, both old and
new, are still saying little about what they actually hope to
accomplish. With few exceptions, much of the rhetoric
focuses not on a policy agenda, but rather, on criticisms of
the CNDD and discussions of when and how to hold elections.
The political dialogue is no different now than it was before
the coup other than the fact that the targets have changed.
Instead of opposing Conte, the "opposition leaders" are now
opposing the CNDD.


4. (U) Newer political arrivals, such as Lansana Kouyate,
are actively pushing to delay elections while long-time
opposition leaders, such as Sidya Toure, are pushing for
elections as soon as possible. The entry of each new
political party corresponds to another seat around the table
at Les Forces Vives meetings, and in some cases (such as with
Mamadou Syllah),another seat at the negotiating table with
the International Contact Group for Guinea (ICG-G). Each new
addition also adds another voice to the discussion, which can
then delay the decision-making process.

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Most of Guinea's political parties are small and
attract only a handful of supporters. However, each
political party is equal in the eyes of the law and therefore
has a say in how the country moves through this transition
period. More than 75 different political leaders are now
entitled to sit around the table and debate with other
members of Les Forces Vives. To put the steadily increasing
size of this group in perspective, the dissolved National
Assembly only had 114 members. The number of parties is
growing so quickly, with an average of about one new party
per week, that it is difficult to get an accurate tally from
one day to the next.


6. (SBU) Some contacts have speculated that new political
leaders such as Mamadou Syllah and Ibrahima Keira, who are
commonly perceived as Conte loyalists, entered the political
arena in order to ingratiate themselves with the new regime
by blocking progress towards elections. Others say that
candidates such as Lansana Kouyate are actively pushing to
delay elections because they need time to establish a voter
base. Regardless of the motives, it is clear that the new
players are adding a complicating dynamic. Rather than
strengthening the collective political voice, in some cases
they seem to be diluting it. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC