POLITICAL LEADER RECEIVES DEATH THREAT, SAYS CNDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000280

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: POLITICAL LEADER RECEIVES DEATH THREAT, SAYS CNDD
IS HERE TO STAY

REF: 08 CONAKRY 0571

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. A young political party leader, Mouctar
Diallo, received a death threat on May 11 when an anonymous
caller warned him to stop speaking out against the CNDD.
Diallo was one of the first to criticize the military junta
and has continued to do so publicly on a weekly basis.
During a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, he said that the CNDD
has no plans to leave and is actively implementing a strategy
to maintain its hold on power. Diallo also discussed his
impressions of waning popular support for Dadis as well as
concerns about the ineffectiveness and intent of Les Forces
Vives. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On May 18, Pol/Econ Chief met with Mouctar Diallo,
the young leader of the New Democratic Forces (NFD) political
party, which he launched in August of 2008 (reftel). Diallo
was a significant player in the 2007 nationwide labor strike
and is seen as one of the youths that was actively leading
others out into the streets to protest against the Conte
regime. He is well respected among his peers and claims to
have significant support, especially from youths in Conakry.
Other prominent political leaders, including Sidya Toure,
Alpha Conde, Cellou Diallo, and Francois Fall, are reportedly
courting Diallo in order to form political alliances. Diallo
was one of the first Guinean actors to speak out against the
coup and the CNDD, and has continued to routinely do so. He
is frequently heard on the radio, highly critical of the
military junta. Embassy nominated Diallo for the FY09
International Visitor Program.

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DEATH THREAT IN THE NIGHT
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3. (SBU) The NFD issued a declaration on May 15 detailing a
death threat made against Diallo just short of midnight on
May 11. Diallo told Pol/Econ Chief that someone called and
warned him to stop speaking out against the CNDD. "Enough is
enough," the caller said. According to Diallo, the caller
warned him that if he continued, the caller would "finish
him." The caller reportedly refused to identify himself,
saying only that his identity was not important, and then
hung up.


4. (SBU) A few days later, one of Diallo's contacts, who is
close to the CNDD, called him to provide "friendly advice."
The contact told Diallo that he should be very careful. "We
are in a situation where no one is in control, including
Dadis...anything can happen," the contact warned. The
contact added that there are many rogue elements at work and
the CNDD cannot control everyone's actions.


5. (SBU) Diallo remains undeterred by the threat. He
conducted two radio interviews last week and said he has no
plans to soften his message. One journalist asked him if he
was afraid. Diallo told Pol/Econ Chief "a goat who is
already dead is not afraid of having his throat cut." Diallo
explained that in 2007, he witnessed the killing of hundreds
of youths by the same military that is now ruling the
country. "I am responsible too because I helped convince
them to join the protest." He added that he no longer fears
death because in many ways, the violence in 2007 only
emphasized the importance of speaking out. "When people are
afraid, we are simply paving the way for another
dictatorship. If this country wants to avoid a third regime,
we need to have young people who are ready to make sacrifices
to achieve their objectives," Diallo said.

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CNDD IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
--------------


6. (C) Turning to the political situation in general, Diallo
said that he is convinced that Dadis and the CNDD are intent
on staying in power. "Their declarations, decisions, and
general activities make their intent clear," he said. Citing
the CNDD's first few declarations in which they called for a
two-year transition, Diallo added that the CNDD's intent has
been evident from the very beginning. Diallo questioned why
the CNDD is busy organizing public demonstrations of support
for Dadis. "They only need such demonstrations if they are
planning to say in power." He also commented on Dadis'
public statements about possibly presenting himself as a
candidate. Even though Dadis has since backtracked, Diallo
said that the CNDD is merely preparing the way for an
eventual announcement. "It's all a strategy to maintain

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their hold on power," he said.


7. (C) According to Diallo, other elements of the CNDD's
strategy include Dadis' recent ceremonies in which he asked
members of the military to swear on the Koran and the Bible
as to their fidelity and patriotism. Diallo said this was
little more than a thinly veiled attempt to buy loyalty
within the unruly military. Another example is the CNDD's
continued delays in setting up a National Transition Council
(CNT). In addition, Diallo noted that it is now clear that
if it is even established, the CNT will be nothing more than
an instrument of the CNDD.

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POPULAR SUPPORT BEGINNING TO WANE?
--------------


8. (C) However, Diallo said that many people in the streets
of Conakry are beginning to lose patience with Dadis and the
CNDD. Water and electricity shortages, the high cost of
food, and generally poor economic conditions continue to take
their toll. Diallo said people are beginning to realize that
the CNDD has not really tackled any of the issues critical to
the majority of Guineans. "I know many people who were very
supportive of the CNDD from day one, but they are now
beginning to change their minds.

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LES FORCES VIVES
--------------


9. (C) In response to a question about Les Forces Vives,
Diallo expressed disappointment. He said that many
civil/political actors are simply positioning themselves for
their own personal benefit. In addition, Diallo said that
certain members of Les Forces Vives report directly to Dadis,
essentially spying on the civilian discussions and then
quickly running to Dadis to tell him what was discussed.
When pressed, Diallo said he could not confirm these
allegations because he has no proof, but that he suspects
political leader Jean-Marie Dore to be among those playing
both sides. "It's the same thing he did with Conte...he was
always on the outside of the opposition and he was always
looking for personal advantages," Diallo said. (COMMENT.
Jean-Marie Dore's political viewpoints were often perceived
as generally more supportive of the Conte regime, although he
was still among the opposition. END COMMENT).


10. (C) In addition, Diallo said that some other political
parties may be increasingly in the CNDD's pocket. He noted
that he had been approached several times by different people
close to the CNDD, all of whom told him that Dadis wanted to
meet with him personally because he is interested in
promoting youth interests. Diallo repeatedly refused. One
contact reportedly encouraged Diallo to have the meeting
because Dadis would likely give him a significant amount of
money that would enable him to bolster his party. "If he's
willing to offer money to me, he's probably willing to offer
it to others...and there are some who would be willing to
take the money," Diallo said. According to Diallo, the CNDD
is actively seeking allies and ways to reinforce its hold on
power.

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COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Although his comments about death and sacrifice
might suggest otherwise, Diallo does not come across as a
political radical. Measured and thoughtful in his speech, he
seems more like a pragmatist who is simply looking at the
situation and trying to figure out how he can best advance
his political agenda. When other youth leaders were sitting
down with the military last fall to talk about a "military
transition," Diallo was quick to distance himself from such
talks, instead publicly pushing for elections as the best way
forward. Although he sometimes seems to fly under the radar,
the recent death threat suggests that the authorities are
beginning to pay attention. While Diallo's political support
is unclear, the fact that major party leaders are actively
trying to bring Diallo and his supporters under their fold
indicates that he is becoming a significant player. END
COMMENT.
RASPOLIC