POLITICAL LEADER RECEIVES DEATH THREAT, SAYS CNDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000280 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: POLITICAL LEADER RECEIVES DEATH THREAT, SAYS CNDD IS HERE TO STAY REF: 08 CONAKRY 0571 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. A young political party leader, Mouctar Diallo, received a death threat on May 11 when an anonymous caller warned him to stop speaking out against the CNDD. Diallo was one of the first to criticize the military junta and has continued to do so publicly on a weekly basis. During a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, he said that the CNDD has no plans to leave and is actively implementing a strategy to maintain its hold on power. Diallo also discussed his impressions of waning popular support for Dadis as well as concerns about the ineffectiveness and intent of Les Forces Vives. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On May 18, Pol/Econ Chief met with Mouctar Diallo, the young leader of the New Democratic Forces (NFD) political party, which he launched in August of 2008 (reftel). Diallo was a significant player in the 2007 nationwide labor strike and is seen as one of the youths that was actively leading others out into the streets to protest against the Conte regime. He is well respected among his peers and claims to have significant support, especially from youths in Conakry. Other prominent political leaders, including Sidya Toure, Alpha Conde, Cellou Diallo, and Francois Fall, are reportedly courting Diallo in order to form political alliances. Diallo was one of the first Guinean actors to speak out against the coup and the CNDD, and has continued to routinely do so. He is frequently heard on the radio, highly critical of the military junta. Embassy nominated Diallo for the FY09 International Visitor Program. -------------- DEATH THREAT IN THE NIGHT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The NFD issued a declaration on May 15 detailing a death threat made against Diallo just short of midnight on May 11. Diallo told Pol/Econ Chief that someone called and warned him to stop speaking out against the CNDD. "Enough is enough," the caller said. According to Diallo, the caller warned him that if he continued, the caller would "finish him." The caller reportedly refused to identify himself, saying only that his identity was not important, and then hung up. ¶4. (SBU) A few days later, one of Diallo's contacts, who is close to the CNDD, called him to provide "friendly advice." The contact told Diallo that he should be very careful. "We are in a situation where no one is in control, including Dadis...anything can happen," the contact warned. The contact added that there are many rogue elements at work and the CNDD cannot control everyone's actions. ¶5. (SBU) Diallo remains undeterred by the threat. He conducted two radio interviews last week and said he has no plans to soften his message. One journalist asked him if he was afraid. Diallo told Pol/Econ Chief "a goat who is already dead is not afraid of having his throat cut." Diallo explained that in 2007, he witnessed the killing of hundreds of youths by the same military that is now ruling the country. "I am responsible too because I helped convince them to join the protest." He added that he no longer fears death because in many ways, the violence in 2007 only emphasized the importance of speaking out. "When people are afraid, we are simply paving the way for another dictatorship. If this country wants to avoid a third regime, we need to have young people who are ready to make sacrifices to achieve their objectives," Diallo said. -------------- CNDD IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to the political situation in general, Diallo said that he is convinced that Dadis and the CNDD are intent on staying in power. "Their declarations, decisions, and general activities make their intent clear," he said. Citing the CNDD's first few declarations in which they called for a two-year transition, Diallo added that the CNDD's intent has been evident from the very beginning. Diallo questioned why the CNDD is busy organizing public demonstrations of support for Dadis. "They only need such demonstrations if they are planning to say in power." He also commented on Dadis' public statements about possibly presenting himself as a candidate. Even though Dadis has since backtracked, Diallo said that the CNDD is merely preparing the way for an eventual announcement. "It's all a strategy to maintain CONAKRY 00000280 002 OF 002 their hold on power," he said. ¶7. (C) According to Diallo, other elements of the CNDD's strategy include Dadis' recent ceremonies in which he asked members of the military to swear on the Koran and the Bible as to their fidelity and patriotism. Diallo said this was little more than a thinly veiled attempt to buy loyalty within the unruly military. Another example is the CNDD's continued delays in setting up a National Transition Council (CNT). In addition, Diallo noted that it is now clear that if it is even established, the CNT will be nothing more than an instrument of the CNDD. -------------- POPULAR SUPPORT BEGINNING TO WANE? -------------- ¶8. (C) However, Diallo said that many people in the streets of Conakry are beginning to lose patience with Dadis and the CNDD. Water and electricity shortages, the high cost of food, and generally poor economic conditions continue to take their toll. Diallo said people are beginning to realize that the CNDD has not really tackled any of the issues critical to the majority of Guineans. "I know many people who were very supportive of the CNDD from day one, but they are now beginning to change their minds. -------------- LES FORCES VIVES -------------- ¶9. (C) In response to a question about Les Forces Vives, Diallo expressed disappointment. He said that many civil/political actors are simply positioning themselves for their own personal benefit. In addition, Diallo said that certain members of Les Forces Vives report directly to Dadis, essentially spying on the civilian discussions and then quickly running to Dadis to tell him what was discussed. When pressed, Diallo said he could not confirm these allegations because he has no proof, but that he suspects political leader Jean-Marie Dore to be among those playing both sides. "It's the same thing he did with Conte...he was always on the outside of the opposition and he was always looking for personal advantages," Diallo said. (COMMENT. Jean-Marie Dore's political viewpoints were often perceived as generally more supportive of the Conte regime, although he was still among the opposition. END COMMENT). ¶10. (C) In addition, Diallo said that some other political parties may be increasingly in the CNDD's pocket. He noted that he had been approached several times by different people close to the CNDD, all of whom told him that Dadis wanted to meet with him personally because he is interested in promoting youth interests. Diallo repeatedly refused. One contact reportedly encouraged Diallo to have the meeting because Dadis would likely give him a significant amount of money that would enable him to bolster his party. "If he's willing to offer money to me, he's probably willing to offer it to others...and there are some who would be willing to take the money," Diallo said. According to Diallo, the CNDD is actively seeking allies and ways to reinforce its hold on power. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Although his comments about death and sacrifice might suggest otherwise, Diallo does not come across as a political radical. Measured and thoughtful in his speech, he seems more like a pragmatist who is simply looking at the situation and trying to figure out how he can best advance his political agenda. When other youth leaders were sitting down with the military last fall to talk about a "military transition," Diallo was quick to distance himself from such talks, instead publicly pushing for elections as the best way forward. Although he sometimes seems to fly under the radar, the recent death threat suggests that the authorities are beginning to pay attention. While Diallo's political support is unclear, the fact that major party leaders are actively trying to bring Diallo and his supporters under their fold indicates that he is becoming a significant player. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC