VOTER REGISTRATION COMES TO A TEMPORARY HALT, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000266

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: VOTER REGISTRATION COMES TO A TEMPORARY HALT, BUT
CENI CLAIMS ELECTIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Guinea's National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI) has temporarily suspended the voter
registration process in order to take stock of progress to
date and address continued funding challenges. Approximately
70% of voters have been registered so far. The CENI
President remains optimistic about the prospects for
elections in 2009, at least in terms of fulfilling the CENI's
responsibilities. At the same time, likely challenges ahead
and recent statements by the CNDD President suggest that
elections are likely to be much further down the road. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
VOTER REGISTRATION SUSPENDED, NOT CLOSED
--------------


2. (SBU) Pol/Econ Chief met with Ben Sekou Syllah, the
President of the National Independent Electoral Commission
(CENI) on May 5 to discuss the status of the national voter
registration campaign. Syllah clarified that the campaign is
not yet closed despite press reports to the contrary, but
rather, temporarily suspended. He estimated that
approximately 70% of voters have been registered to date -
close to 90% in the interior with lower numbers in the
capital.


3. (SBU) Syllah explained that he decided to call a halt to
the process primarily because they were already five months
in arrears in paying salaries and expenses to registrars and
local CENI representatives. With monthly expenses totaling
approximately $1.25 million, Syllah estimated that workers
are now due over $6 million. When Pol/Econ Chief pointed out
that the Guinean Government is responsible for paying these
expenses, Syllah sidestepped the issue, saying "all I know is
I need the money in my budget." (COMMENT. The GoG is
responsible for paying the bulk of these expenses and has
been promising the funds since before the coup. END COMMENT).


4. (SBU) Although the financial issue was identified as the
major impediment, Syllah said he also wanted to suspend the
process because he needs some time to evaluate what has
already been accomplished in order to strategically target
any areas that still need attention. In addition, he wants
to start downloading the registration data and begin
developing a national voter list. "In two or three weeks,
we'll know where we're at and then we can focus on what
remains."

--------------
ALL IS WELL, THINGS MOVE FORWARD
--------------


5. (C) On the issue of funding, Syllah said he was very
happy to report that the Minister of Finance had called him
that week and promised to release 15 billion GnF (a little
more than $3 million) within a week. However, he later said
that this amount is little more than a token since much more
is needed. Syllah commented that the Minister of Finance had
never called him before and that he saw the personal promise
as a sign of the GoG's sincere intentions to move elections
forward.


6. (C) When Pol/Econ Chief asked whether elections would
move forward in October as planned, Syllah replied "the month
is not really important, but certainly by the end of the
year...we will be ready by December." He also commented
"anyway, it's not me who decides, it is the president." As
the discussion turned to questions of political will, Syllah
said he believes CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara is
sincere in his intentions to hold elections, but that members
of his entourage are encouraging him to delay.

--------------
WHO NEEDS UNITY?
--------------


7. (SBU) With respect to Les Forces Vives, Syllah admitted
that the group lacks unity as a whole, but asserted that
unity is not all that important. "Why do they need
unity...they all agree on the end objective." Pol/Econ Chief
pointed out that in fact they do not all agree on the end
objective since various groups are advocating different
transition timelines, some with elections far down the road.
At this point, Syllah said "it is better than nothing." He
later commented that there is internal divergence within Les
Forces Vives, they still present a united front.


CONAKRY 00000266 002 OF 002


-------------- ---
COMMENTS ON VOTER REGISTRATION FROM THE INTERIOR
-------------- ---


8. (SBU) During a trip to the Boke region of Guinea the
following day, Pol/Econ Chief spoke with two government
representatives of the sub-prefecture of Sangaredi. The
elected community official said that he still had two
districts in which the voter registration process has not yet
been launched. However, the sous-prefect claimed that the
region had already registered 106% of its estimated voters.
He attributed the discrepancy to higher than anticipated
numbers of people who had recently moved to the region in
order to take advantage of the mining based economy.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) Syllah was a prominent and outspoken civil society
leader before his appointment to the CENI, eager to share his
opinions and analysis of Guinean politics. However, after
more than a year into the job, he is increasingly careful
about what he says in meetings with Embassy officials. His
reticence may be linked to his need for international donor
assistance to accomplish his mission, but it is quite clear
that he is essentially towing the official government line.


10. (SBU) Although Syllah maintains that elections will
happen by the end of the year, he is quick to dismiss the
formidable challenges ahead. The funding issue remains
unresolved, which will likely make it difficult to restart
the registration process. At the same time, the country is
quickly approaching its rainy season, which will force the
process to a standstill. In the meantime, Dadis has been
making problematic statements in the press. Over the
weekend, he described the agreed upon election timeline as
little more than a decision made on paper rather than a
concrete commitment. He accused the political parties and
the international community of trying to assert undue
pressure and warned that he would not be intimidated.
Despite Syllah's assurances to the contrary, a number of
indicators suggest that elections before the end of 2009 are
increasingly unlikely. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC