TECHNICAL PARTNERS SAY ELECTIONS LIKELY TO TAKE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000025 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV SOCI ASEC GV SUBJECT: TECHNICAL PARTNERS SAY ELECTIONS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE TOWARDS END OF 2009 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Technical experts who have been working with the Guinean Government to organize elections since June of 2007 maintain that it will take at least another eight to nine months before elections will be feasible, provided that all goes perfectly between now and then. They cited a host of technical issues and questionable political will as the main challenges. Although the EU initially estimated that the voter registration process would take no more than four months, the process now looks like it will take a full year, ending sometime in August or September. GoG financing problems may continue to impede the process, especially given that the long-anticipated debt relief under HIPC has not materialized. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) USAID Technical Office Chief attended a regularly scheduled elections focal group meeting hosted by the UNDP on January 7. The meeting tends to focus on technical implementation issues and is routinely attended by representatives from the EU Mission, France, the U.S., Japan, and project partners such as IFES. The Deputy Director of the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP) and the Vice President of the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) participated as well. USAID spoke privately with the EU/UNDP computer expert on the voter registration process after the formal meeting concluded. ¶3. (SBU) Although the technical experts were still working on a feasible election timeline, they agreed that the voter registration process will not be completed by the end of March as initially anticipated. The computer expert estimated that the process would be completed sometime in August or September due to funding issues and a lack of technical competence. Other participants highlighted the numerous technical problems that have slowed the registration process down, including equipment failure and difficulties in replenishing supplies. Experts estimated that approximately 1.5 million people have been registered to date, or about 40% of the between 4.5 and 5 million eligible voters. (COMMENT. MATAP announced last week that 3 million voters had been registered. END COMMENT). Experts also reported that many of the registrars have stopped reporting to work because they have not been paid. In addition, 38 of the 924 registration units have not yet started operating. Participants recommended conducting a full assessment on the status of the registration process in order to develop a realistic timeline for elections. ¶4. (SBU) In the follow-on meeting with USAID, the computer expert clarified some of the technical processes required to complete the voter registration process. He said that the process does not end with the actual registration of voters, which generally does not take much time. Once the voters are registered, all the information must be downloaded into a central database, and this process can take several months. Once the download is completed, the registration lists need to be sent out to the registration districts for confirmation. Only after all these steps are completed, are the actual voter identification cards issued. (COMMENT. The former government may not have been aware of these follow-on steps, which may explain why government officials kept maintaining that the registration process was almost finished. END COMMENT). ¶5. (SBU) Aside from the voter registration process, participants also discussed the possibility of revising the constitution before elections are held. Specific concerns included calls to allow for independent candidacy, further clarifications of the CENI's role and authority, term limitations, and defining the powers of the prime minister. ¶6. (SBU) Following a series of meetings with various actors, the UNDP Country Director said that most of the political parties agreed that the presidential election needed to be held by the end of 2009, and that the parties were still debating whether the legislative election should be held concurrently or after the presidential election. He said that the labor unions had not reached a common position with respect to elections while other civil society organizations are proposing a transition period of 12 to 18 months in order to address key issues such as constitutional reform. (COMMENT. Most of the major political parties have publicly demanded that legislative elections be held within six months, and presidential elections within twelve months. Several party contacts have maintained the same position in private meetings with Poloff. See septel. END COMMENT). CONAKRY 00000025 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Before ending the meeting, participants agreed to the following recommendations: - Evaluate the status of voter registration - Prepare a formal recommendation for election implementation, to be presented to the Election Pilot Committee (a GoG interagency group) - Have MATAP transfer to the CENI the 9 billion GnF intended to pay registrars and related expenses - Find a way to close the remaining funding gap for elections -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Eighteen months of delays in election organization have been due to a combination of factors, including a lack of political will on the part of key actors as well as technical implementation challenges. The political will of the new government to hold elections is still unclear. The fact that civil society itself is divided over how things should be done may present the CNDD with a perfect opportunity to willfully delay the process, or conversely, the continued divisions could continue to undermine efforts to move the process forward. The technical experts seemed convinced that even in perfect conditions, the registration process will take several more months. The GoG's failure to finance various stages of the process has slowed things down in the past, and may do so in the months ahead, especially since critical financing, namely HIPC debt relief, has not materialized as anticipated. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC