FORMER PM FRANCOIS FALL ENTERS THE POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000206

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FORMER PM FRANCOIS FALL ENTERS THE POLITICAL
ARENA, LOOKS TO MOBILIZE CIVIL SOCIETY

REF: CONAKRY 0093

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. After resigning from a UN post in Bangui,
former Prime Minister Francois Fall has returned to Guinea to
enter the political arena. Visibly energized and ready to
get to work, Fall described a strategy focused not only on
elections, but also on mobilizing a grassroots youth movement
to force the CNDD out of power. His approach is markedly
different from that of his political rivals, but he has also
been absent from the Guinean political scene for some time.
Untainted by corruption and viewed as a man of integrity,
Fall may be just what is needed to jumpstart a more proactive
civic activism. He may ultimately fall prey to the typical
political pitfalls of Guinea, but he is certainly a political
persona to watch in the months ahead. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Three days after his very public return to Conakry
on March 28, Pol/Econ Chief met with former Prime Minister
Francois Louceny Fall to discuss his political agenda. Fall
had initially met with Charge in February and indicated that
he planned to permanently return to Guinea to run for
president (reftel). By the end of February, he had resigned
from his UN position in Bangui and was preparing to return to
Guinea.

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ANOTHER NEW POLITICAL PARTY
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3. (C) Apparently eager to discuss his political plans with
the Embassy, Fall had requested the meeting less than 24
hours after his flight had landed in Conakry. He told
Pol/Econ Chief that he had already filed the necessary
paperwork to create his own political party, the United Forum
for Democracy and Change (FRUDEC),which he believed would
soon be officially approved by the Minister of Territorial
Administration and Political Affairs. Although he emphasized
that the party is multi-ethnic, Fall acknowledged that
approximately 80% of his current support base comes from the
Soussou ethnic group. He noted that his party is
particularly attractive to the country's youths and claimed
to have widespread support throughout this demographic,
regardless of ethnicity.


4. (SBU) Fall said that he had already resumed talks with
rival political leaders since arriving a few days earlier.
Once his party is official, Fall said he would start
participating as a member of Les Forces Vives, Guinea's loose
affiliation of political and social leaders pushing for a
quick return to civilian rule.

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IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT WINNING THE ELECTION
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5. (C) With respect to his political agenda, Fall said he
has two overarching priorities: economic growth and
strengthening democratic institutions. However, Fall
emphasized that his strategy is not focused solely on winning
the election. "There is no guarantee that there will be an
election...we need to force Dadis (CNDD President) to
leave...and I am going to be very active in this effort," he
said. According to Fall, Guinea's current range of political
actors is not being proactive enough - they are focusing on
how to win the election rather than ensuring that an election
takes place. "We need widespread civil pressure to force the
action and mobilizing the youth is the key to such an
initiative."

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DADIS' ALLEGED POLITICAL MANIPULATIONS
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6. (C) On the subject of CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara,
Fall was highly critical. He said that Dadis is secretly
hoping to influence the election results because he wants to
make sure that whoever is elected is someone that he can
influence and later take power from. "For that reason, he is
more interested in supporting one of the older candidates,
such as Jean-Marie Dore or Alpha Conde, because they will
only be able to serve one or two terms." Fall commented that
"Dadis talks a lot," but that in reality, he has not
mentioned, let alone begun to address, the country's real
problems, namely the deteriorating economic situation and the
continued lack of water and electricity.


7. (C) According to Fall, the only way to make sure Dadis

CONAKRY 00000206 002 OF 002


fades into the background is to motivate the population for
the elections. "I want to make Conakry hot...we need to have
people out in the street sending a clear message," he said.

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BUILDING SUPPORT
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8. (C) When asked to estimate the level of his political
support, Fall said that it was still too early since he had
only recently returned to Guinea. He admitted that most of
his supporters are centralized in Conakry, but that he plans
to soon launch his campaign in the interior. Fall mentioned
that the rival RPG (Rally for the Guinean People - Alpha
Conde) party is falling apart and that many of its youths are
switching allegiances in favor of Fall. Fall said that he
has also been courting members of other political parties,
particularly the youth, and claimed that many have expressed
interest in joining his party.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Fall was clearly energized. His strategy, which
seems to focus on mobilizing youths in a very public and
perhaps risky way, is markedly different from that of his
rivals. While other political leaders are being careful to
avoid antagonizing the CNDD, Fall seems to harbor no such
reservations. For the time being, he seems less interested
in talking about elections and more interested in making sure
that the CNDD understands that its hold on power must be
short-lived.


10. (C) At the same time, Fall is newly returned to the
Guinean political scene. He may very well fall prey to the
same dynamics that have crippled the opposition for years
(i.e. political infighting, corruption, self-promotion,
etc.). However, if he can successfully mobilize the
country's youths as he says, he may very well provide a much
needed impetus to what has been a largely disappointing
effort on the part of civil society. He also may be just the
person to do it. His political "persona" is largely
untainted since he is not viewed as one of the problematic
political leaders of the past. He is also seen as a man of
integrity for his decision to resign from office under the
late President Conte. It will be interesting to see what
kind of political support Fall can muster -- and what he does
with it in the months ahead. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC