CNDD ANNOUNCES ACCEPTANCE OF 2009 ELECTION TIMELINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000193

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD ANNOUNCES ACCEPTANCE OF 2009 ELECTION TIMELINE

REF: CONAKRY 0171

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (U) A GoG press office official read a statement over
national television on March 28, announcing that the CNDD had
accepted the election timeline developed by Les Forces Vives
during the International Contact Group visit earlier this
month (reftel). This timeline calls for legislative
elections on October 11 followed by presidential elections on
December 13, with a presidential run-off on December 27. The
GoG official emphasized that the presidential election will
end Guinea's transition, and that the presidential election
will be held no later than December 2009.


2. (SBU) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara later muddied
the waters on the question of elections. In response to
calls for him to stay in power through 2010 from the more
than 25,000 youths at a CNDD rally on March 29 (septel),
Dadis initially refused, saying he would honor the
commitments he had already made to the political parties and
other actors. He reiterated this statement later that
evening at 21:00 on national television. However, just a few
hours later, he made another televised appearance during
which he announced that the country needed to organize a
national forum in order to "re-discuss" the transition.


3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Guinea's National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI) is pushing to complete the first stage of
voter registration by April 16. In a March 23 letter
addressed to the country's political parties, CENI President
Ben Sekou Syllah requested that party leaders help energize
and inform their constituents in order to get everyone
registered on time. Once the first stage is complete, the
process of reviewing and verifying the lists and then issuing
voter identification cards is expected to take another three
to four months.

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COMMENT
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4. (C) It is interesting, and perhaps not coincidental, that
the day after the CNDD announced acceptance of the 2009
transition timeline, Dadis attended the March 29 rally of
youths calling for him to stay in power through 2010
(septel). Over the past three months, Dadis consistently
maintained that he was pro-elections and then expertly tossed
the responsibility for developing a timeline from one
civilian group to another, thereby wasting three months of
what he eventually promised would be a 12 month transition.
The CNDD's acceptance of the Forces Vives' transition
timeline aside, Dadis' political will is still very much in
question.


5. (SBU) The next few months are critical to the election
timeline and will indicate whether or not elections are
likely to take place before the end of the year. Key
developments to watch include completion of the first phase
of voter registration, commitments of additional election
funding from donor countries, GoG release of Guinea's
committed election funding, and the prompt establishment of
the Forces Vives' proposed National Transition Council (CNT).
END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC