CNDD ANNOUNCES ACCEPTANCE OF 2009 ELECTION TIMELINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000193 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: CNDD ANNOUNCES ACCEPTANCE OF 2009 ELECTION TIMELINE REF: CONAKRY 0171 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (U) A GoG press office official read a statement over national television on March 28, announcing that the CNDD had accepted the election timeline developed by Les Forces Vives during the International Contact Group visit earlier this month (reftel). This timeline calls for legislative elections on October 11 followed by presidential elections on December 13, with a presidential run-off on December 27. The GoG official emphasized that the presidential election will end Guinea's transition, and that the presidential election will be held no later than December 2009. ¶2. (SBU) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara later muddied the waters on the question of elections. In response to calls for him to stay in power through 2010 from the more than 25,000 youths at a CNDD rally on March 29 (septel), Dadis initially refused, saying he would honor the commitments he had already made to the political parties and other actors. He reiterated this statement later that evening at 21:00 on national television. However, just a few hours later, he made another televised appearance during which he announced that the country needed to organize a national forum in order to "re-discuss" the transition. ¶3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Guinea's National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) is pushing to complete the first stage of voter registration by April 16. In a March 23 letter addressed to the country's political parties, CENI President Ben Sekou Syllah requested that party leaders help energize and inform their constituents in order to get everyone registered on time. Once the first stage is complete, the process of reviewing and verifying the lists and then issuing voter identification cards is expected to take another three to four months. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) It is interesting, and perhaps not coincidental, that the day after the CNDD announced acceptance of the 2009 transition timeline, Dadis attended the March 29 rally of youths calling for him to stay in power through 2010 (septel). Over the past three months, Dadis consistently maintained that he was pro-elections and then expertly tossed the responsibility for developing a timeline from one civilian group to another, thereby wasting three months of what he eventually promised would be a 12 month transition. The CNDD's acceptance of the Forces Vives' transition timeline aside, Dadis' political will is still very much in question. ¶5. (SBU) The next few months are critical to the election timeline and will indicate whether or not elections are likely to take place before the end of the year. Key developments to watch include completion of the first phase of voter registration, commitments of additional election funding from donor countries, GoG release of Guinea's committed election funding, and the prompt establishment of the Forces Vives' proposed National Transition Council (CNT). END COMMENT. RASPOLIC