CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000183 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PMIL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: CNDD LEADER IS A "SIMPLE SOLDIER IN WAY OVER HIS HEAD" REF: CONAKRY 0169 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Following his private meeting with CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara and 2nd Vice President Sekouba Konate, opposition leader Sidya Toure described an inseparable leadership duo caught in the middle of a political and economic mess from which they have no idea how to extricate themselves. Dadis is reportedly deeply worried about the lack of discipline within the military, but hesitant to try and address the problem for fear of sparking a mutiny or a counter-coup. On the economic front, Dadis is apparently expecting a $100 million "gift" from China to keep the national budget afloat. However, he has been quiet on elections even after receiving the proposed transition timeline from Les Forces Vives. Sidya also commented on his own developing relationship with the CNDD leadership and an ideological fracture within Les Forces Vives. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE DADIS AND KONATE TEAM -------------- ¶2. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with former Prime Minister and opposition political leader (UFR) Sidya Toure on March 25. Sidya had spent more than an hour with CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara and the 2nd Vice President, Sekouba Konate, in a private meeting at Camp Alpha Yaya on March 20. Sidya said that the two leaders are inseparable and that Dadis relies heavily on Konate's judgment and advice. He described Dadis as more of a dreamer while Konate is someone who keeps both feet on solid ground. According to Sidya, Konate has a much better grasp of the practical realities facing the CNDD. "Dadis is more theoretical...he talks about patriotism and morality, but he doesn't really understand the challenges ahead," Sidya commented. ¶3. (C) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he thought that both Dadis and Konate were just beginning to feel the "weight of power." He was convinced that neither leader is interested in remaining in power, but that they seem to have gotten themselves into a mess that they do not know how to get out of. According to Sidya, the people around the president, particularly the civilian ministers, are a big part of the problem. "They keep giving bad advice, basically reinforcing the weaknesses of the last regime...and they have no interest in handing power over to a new group." 
 -------------- WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE MILITARY -------------- ¶4. (C) Aside from Dadis' crusade against corruption and narcotics, which Sidya believed Dadis sees as a personal moral responsibility to his country, Dadis is preoccupied with the question of military reform. "The army is his biggest problem and he doesn't know what to do about it," Sidya said. Citing the almost complete lack of military discipline and chaotic disorder at Camp Alpha Yaya, Sidya said that handing power over to civilians before the government has established firm control over the military would only escalate the country's political instability. At the same time, Sidya commented that Dadis' own position is too precarious for him to try and institute any reforms since doing so could spark an immediate revolt or counter-coup. "It's not just about elections and handing power back...we have to be sure that we can hold onto that power." -------------- GIFTS FROM CHINA -------------- ¶5. (C) Sidya was also concerned about the country's deteriorating economic situation, which is characterized by a deepening recession, diminishing government revenues, and endemic poverty. When Pol/Econ Chief asked if Dadis and Konate had a plan to address these issues, Sidya laughed uncomfortably. "Sure...the Chinese have promised them $100 million so they plan to use that to stay afloat." Sidya attributed this strategy to one of the president's civilian ministers. He said it was not at all clear what the Chinese expect to gain in return, although mining concessions would probably figure in, but "they certainly aren't going to hand us $100 million just because they like us." Sidya added that certain ministers are also lobbying Libya for cash donations. -------------- CONAKRY 00000183 002 OF 003 NOTHING NEW ON ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) On the question of elections, Sidya confirmed that Les Force Vives had formally passed their transition proposal to Dadis last week (reftel). However, when asked whether Dadis would accept the proposal, Sidya said he did not know as Les Forces Vives had not received a response. -------------- NEED TO GET ECOWAS ON OUR SIDE -------------- ¶7. (C) During the course of his discussion with Dadis, Sidya said he advised him that his number one priority should be to reach out to the international community and repair relationships. He specifically told Dadis that he needed to define his transition plan and then get ECOWAS board. "I told him that if he can get ECOWAS on our side, everyone else will have no choice but to follow." However, Sidya commented that one of Dadis' problems is that he doesn't have a clear vision of how he plans to proceed. "I keep telling him that it is critical that he articulate a strategic vision," Sidya said. -------------- A ROLE FOR SIDYA IN THE JUNTA -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Sidya, Dadis welcomed his advice and even offered to give him an official government position. Sidya declined, reportedly telling Dadis that as the leader of an opposition political party, it would be inappropriate for him to serve in Dadis' government. Nevertheless, Dadis apparently asked him to provide occasional advice, which Sidya said he would be willing to do. ¶9. (C) Pol/Econ Chief remarked on the fact that Dadis had recently named Sidya to a new mining commission established to review the country's mining contracts (septel). Sidya said the appointment reflects Dadis' confidence in his judgment, but that the commission's role and responsibilities are not yet clear. -------------- THE FRACTURE WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES -------------- ¶10. (C) In response to a question about unity within Les Forces Vives, Sidya readily admitted that the loose association of political and civil leaders is deeply divided. "We're fractured into two groups...I'm on one side and Alpha Conde (RPG) is on the other." According to Sidya, this divide is primarily ideological and related not to a difference of opinion over the course of the transition, but rather, over two diverse forces competing for eventual control of the country. He noted that union leader Dr. Ibrahima Fofana has sided with Alpha Conde while rival union leader Sera Rabiatou Diallo has sided with Sidya. ¶11. (C) Before ending the meeting, Pol/Econ Chief asked Sidya why the controversial millionaire turned political party leader, Mamadou Syllah, was able to nab a seat at the bargaining table as a member of Les Forces Vives. Shrugging his shoulders, Sidya said "you'll have to ask the others because frankly, I don't understand it...I've been asking myself the same question." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) It appears as if Dadis may have changed his tune when it comes to Sidya Toure since Sidya's name figured prominently on the CNDD's list of economic predators, and Dadis publicly identified Sidya as one of the corrupt former government officials responsible for Guinea's current economic and political crisis. Dadis is now apparently seeking Sidya's advice and naming him to one of his commissions. A CNDD insider recently commented that Sidya has been lobbying to be prime minister, and that Dadis is looking on the possibility favorably (septel). However, Sidya's comments to Pol/Econ Chief suggest that he is trying to walk a delicate line, balancing between distancing himself from the junta while trying to influence its leaders. ¶13. (C) While not necessarily pro-Dadis or pro-CNDD, especially since Sidya's ultimate goal is to become president, he seemed to sympathize with Dadis. According to CONAKRY 00000183 003 OF 003 Sidya, Dadis is simply an inexperienced young military captain who has bitten off way more than he can chew. He seemed to think that Dadis is probably sincere in his intentions, committed to lofty if perhaps unattainable ideals, but woefully unaware of the practical realities and challenges of running a country. Continued international pressure for elections, a weakening economy, a loaded transition agenda, and an out of control military are converging issues that are proving difficult to reconcile. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC