LES FORCES VIVES NOW REPORTEDLY PUSHING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000157

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LES FORCES VIVES NOW REPORTEDLY PUSHING FOR
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
IN MARCH

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. During a March 5 meeting with Charge,
opposition political leader Jean-Marie Dore said that he had
been selected by his peers as the spokesperson for Les Forces
Vives. Critical of recent CENI activities, including the
proposal of an election timeline to the CNDD, Dore said Les
Forces Vives are developing their own election timeline,
based on the consensus of all political actors, which will
propose to hold legislative elections in October or November
and presidential elections in March. Although he gave plenty
of justification for the perceived delays, Dore seemed to
have no real strategy as to how to deal with the CNDD in the
interim. Guinea's political actors seem to be continuing to
fight amongst themselves as they seek to position themselves
strategically, thereby inadvertently giving the CNDD the
perfect opportunity to manipulate the political situation.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Charge met with opposition political leader
Jean-Marie Dore, of the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG),on
March 5. Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff also participated in the
meeting. In his seventies, Dore is one of the oldest
candidates expected to run for president. During the last
legislative election, the UPG won three seats out of 114, but
Dore refused to fill them because he said the election was
rigged. In the past, he privately told Pol/Econ Chief that
the UPG had easily won at least 20 seats. Dore is from the
Forest Region and his UPG party is perceived to be largely
Forestier although he maintains that it is has significant
multi-ethnic, national support.

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REPRESENTING LES FORCES VIVES
--------------


3. (C) Dore commented on a series of recent meetings of Les
Forces Vives, which is primarily comprised of political
parties, civil society groups, and labor unions. He claimed
that he had been selected as the group's spokesperson and
that he had been meeting with CNDD President Moussa Dadis
Camara on their behalf. Of key CNDD members, Dore said "I
think they are all really sincere...not all of them, but
certainly Dadis, Toto Camara, Sekouba Konate, Faro, and
Mathurin...there are about seven to ten of them who
understand very well that they need to leave power quickly,
but not in a situation of disorder."

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DISSATISFACTION WITH THE CENI
--------------


4. (C) Turning to elections, Dore said that the National
Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) is not functioning
well. He claimed that many political leaders are
dissatisfied with CENI President Ben Sekou Syllah and want to
remove him from the CENI. "I am against that because it
would just cause further delays," Dore said. However, he
said that although the law creating the CENI was a good
thing, the fact is that the actual text of the law is flawed.
"The law itself does not really give any power to CENI
members to disagree with the CENI President," Dore explained.
According to Dore, one of the current problems is that
Syllah went to meet with Dadis shortly after the coup,
without consulting with anyone, and successfully convinced
Dadis to sign a decree giving the CENI full control over
elections. "I am absolutely against that decision...that was
never the intent of the law," Dore told Charge.


5. (C) Similarly, Dore criticized Syllah's presentation of
an election timeline to Dadis, claiming that Syllah had
failed to consult with anyone else. He explained that Les
Forces Vives are responsible for drafting the timeline and
that he, as their spokesperson, will present it to Dadis when
it is ready. Dore claimed that the group had nearly reached
consensus, and that they planned to propose holding
legislative elections in October or November, followed by
presidential elections in March. Responding to a question
about the apparent backsliding on the presidential elections,
Dore explained that there needed to be at least two or three
months in between the two elections because "the results of
the legislative elections will drive presidential campaigns
and candidacies." Dore added that the new legislature's
immediate priority will be to pass a national budget, a
process that generally takes at least two months, and that
National Assembly members will not have time to focus on
another election at that time. Dore said Les Forces Vive
want to have the chronogram ready in time for the mid-March

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arrival of the International Contact Group.

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EMERGING POLITICAL ALLIANCES
--------------


6. (C) Within Les Force Vives, Dore said that three
political alliances have emerged. He claimed that one
alliance is dominated by RPG leader Alpha Conde (Rally for
the Guinean People),another by UFR leader Sidya Toure (Union
of Republican Forces),and a third by controversial
millionaire Mamadou Syllah. Pol/Econ Chief questioned
whether Mamadou Syllah had any real political influence.
Dore agreed that he had little, but that Mamadou Syllah is
still part of the political landscape. According to Dore,
his own UPG party is at the heart of a fourth emerging
alliance, along with Ousmane Bah's UPR (Union for Progress
and Renewal). When asked where UFDG leader Cellou Diallo
(Union of Guinean Democratic Forces) fit into the picture,
Dore said that Cellou is not being picked up in any of the
alliances because "he has too much baggage." Dore claimed
that his emerging UPG-UPR alliance will prove to be the most
powerful out all of the groupings.

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WHAT ABOUT THE CNDD?
--------------


7. (C) Pol/Econ Chief asked how Les Forces Vives plan to
handle the question of the CNDD in the proposed interim
period between legislative and presidential elections.
Instead of answering the question, Dore expounded on the need
for constitutional reform. When asked again, Dore shrugged
his shoulders and said "that is why we need to cultivate
close relationships with them (the CNDD) now...we need to
explain our position...if there are differences, we will
negotiate with each other like they do in Washington."

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IF I WERE PRESIDENT...
--------------


8. (SBU) Throughout the course of the discussion, Dore
repeatedly made statements such as "if I am made President"
or "if I am lucky enough to win the election." He mentioned
several immediate priorities if he ends up heading a new
administration, including improving the civil service
retirement pension system, retiring a significant number of
senior military officers, and creating a special, exceptional
court to address narco-trafficking.

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BETTER TO SACRIFICE AN INNOCENT
--------------


9. (C) As the meeting came to a close, Dore praised the
CNDD's recent arrests of individuals suspected of
narco-trafficking. He said he was not worried about how the
trials were being conducted because the most important thing
is to address the problem. Dore claimed that it is better
for society to sacrifice an innocent person than to let a
guilty one go free. "Besides, even if they are innocent,
they made the choice to get mixed up in that stuff," he said.
Dore also claimed that while it was appropriate for the CNDD
to go after Ousmane Conte and other prominent officials, they
should refrain from arresting any of the late President
Conte's wives. "Arresting the wives would just give Guinea a
bad image," Dore told Charge.

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COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Although the CENI has already developed a
technically sound election timeline, it appears that other
political actors want to have a say before they sign off on
it. There has been friction between the political parties
and the CENI ever since the CENI was initially established,
despite the fact that each of the major political parties has
at least one representative sitting on the Commission.
Dore's insights suggest that it is politics as usual in
Guinea, i.e. plenty of political infighting and strategic
positioning. Such shenanigans, as exemplified by the
disagreement between the CENI and the political parties over
the elections timeline, may give the CNDD the perfect
opportunity to manipulate the political situation -- much
like Conte and others did in the months before the coup.


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11. (C) Dore's responses to questions regarding the CNDD
suggest that he, and by association Les Forces Vives, have no
real strategy in place to force the CNDD to cede power. Dore
was adamant that there needed to be a three or four month
delay between legislative and presidential elections, but he
had no idea what to do about the CNDD during that time
period. END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC