CNDD OUTLINES VAGUE ELECTION TIMELINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000114 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM SOCI ASEC GV SUBJECT: CNDD OUTLINES VAGUE ELECTION TIMELINE REF: CONAKRY 0096 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Recent meetings between the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) and the Forces Vives, a group of civil and political actors, have focused on identifying an election date and defining a transition timeline. The Forces Vives recently sent a letter to the President of the CNDD, Moussa Dadis Camara, pressing for clarification of the transition process, but received no reply. Thereafter, during a nationally broadcast meeting with members of the international community and Guinean civil society, Dadis outlined a potential timeline for holding elections, but did not include specific dates. The reaction from civil society seems positive, albeit tentative. END SUMMARY. -------------- CIVIL SOCIETY ASKS FOR CLARIFICATION -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following a disappointing meeting with Dadis Camara (reftel),representatives from political parties, civil society, labor unions, religious leaders and youth--collectively known as the Forces Vives--met on February 10 in order to determine an appropriate course of action. Frustrated by Dadis' ambiguity in regards to a transition timeline, the group sent Dadis a letter asking that he clarify in writing his vision for the transition. The letter was reportedly received, although the Forces Vives received no reply. -------------- -------------- CNDD ASKS FOR "NO TROUBLE" FROM POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On February 14, representatives from the CNDD, without Dadis present, met with the Forces Vives to prepare for the arrival of the International Contact Group on Guinea (ICG-G). CNDD representatives emphasized the importance of presenting a collaborative and harmonious image to the ICG-G. According to LES sources, when the Forces Vives continued to press for a repeal of the suspension of political activity, the CNDD demanded assurance that there would be "no trouble" from the political parties if it was lifted. -------------- DADIS LAYS OUT A TIMELINE FOR ELECTIONS -------------- ¶4. (U) On February 16 at the People's Palace, the CNDD met with the ICG-G and the Forces Vives to discuss the transition process. (NOTE. The US delegate to the ICG-G is reporting on the group's response in septel. END NOTE). During the meeting, Dadis Camara proposed a timeline of essential activities that would lead to elections, but this timeline did not identify specific dates. Dadis also indicated that the Forces Vives will have a significant role in both the approval of the timeline and the implementation of many of the actions. Among the key measures included in the timeline were: -- Establishing a National Transition Council, composed of members of the CNDD and members of the Force Vives, to manage the transition. -- Resuming the voter registration process. -- Lifting the suspension of labor union and political party activities. -- Establishing a structure to monitor the Transition Road Map with the Contact Group. -- Establishing a Commission on Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation to investigate crimes committed during the June 2006 and January 2007 events. -- Revising and adopting a new constitution. -- Publishing a decree to call for elections. -------------- DADIS CLAIMS HE WILL NOT RUN FOR ELECTION -------------- ¶5. (U) During his speech, Dadis assured the ICG-G that CONAKRY 00000114 002.2 OF 002 neither he nor the Prime Minister would run in the presidential elections. He also noted that any member of the government who wished to run would be asked to step down. Dadis included in his statement a denunciation of corruption, drug-trafficking, and patronage, while reiterating a plea for international support for the electoral process. -------------- REACTIONS FROM CIVIL SOCIETY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) According to LES sources, the members of the Forces Vives, though hoping for specific dates to be included in the timetable, demonstrated support for the proposed timeline. Presidents of several political parties--the Union of Republican Forces (UFR),the Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR),the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG),and the Guinean People's Assembly (RPG)--expressed their approval for a National Transition Council that would serve as a platform to debate political, social, and economic issues facing Guinea. Ousmane Bah, President of UPR, noted in his speech that the meeting was the first time an opposition party had been allowed to speak at such a gathering. Representatives from the labor unions, the National Council for Civil Society Organizations (CNOSC),youth groups, and religious leaders all pledged support to the CNDD and affirmed their commitment to the transition process. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Some members of civil society seem hopeful that Dadis is increasingly taking their recommendations into account. However, the CNDD'S continued reluctance to establish a definite timetable casts doubt on Dadis' commitment to move rapidly towards elections. Further, it is unclear who would be responsible for the implementation of many of the proposed measures. RASPOLIC