MFA SECRETARY "SANGUINE" ON IDP ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000962 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE SUBJECT: MFA SECRETARY "SANGUINE" ON IDP ISSUE Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) In an October 20 meeting with Ambassador, new MFA Secretary Romesh Jayasinghe claimed that the government's attitude toward the IDP situation was changing for the better. Jayasinghe, who recently returned to Colombo after what was seen as a very successful stint as Sri Lankan high commissioner in New Delhi, said that a number of factors were contributing to the change. The GSL initially was overwhelmed by the numbers of IDPs and now was better able to deal with the problem. Also, initially -- since the military had the lead -- the GSL had started off dealing with the IDPs with a "military mindset." This mindset, both in terms of IDPs and in the wider approach to government policymaking, was now changing (he hinted at intentions to downgrade the military, which would be a natural reaction to the recent rise of former army chief and now CHOD Fonseka as a potential rival for the presidency). ¶2. (C) Jayasinghe argued that demining and security issues remained significant, but even these were better under control and headed toward resolution. These developments had led to a recognition in government circles that the costs of keeping the IDPs in the camps were outweighing the benefits, which made Jayasinghe "sanguine" that the GSL was turning a corner in its approach to the IDP issue. He cited the recent visit of the Indian Tamil-Nadu parliamentarians to the camps -- something that would never have been considered earlier -- as evidence of the GSL's loosening up on the issue. In connection with that visit, Jayasinghe said the GSL pledged to the Indians that 54,000 IDPs would be released by the end of the month. He claimed a tacit deal was reached with the Indians that they could take credit for gaining the IDPs, freedom in exchange for moderating their public statements on the IDP issue. The secretary thought it was significant that, unlike past GSL pledges to release specific numbers of IDPs, this time the government told the Indians privately that it would honor the target figure. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: The proof of the pudding is in the tasting, and in the case of IDPs in Sri Lanka, triply so; embassy has learned only to believe GSL pronouncements about IDP returns when people actually arrive at their old homes. Nevertheless, there may be some truth to Jayasinghe's observations that the mood in the government is changing. We cannot confirm the 54,000 release figure by the end of the month that he cited, but the GSL has made several announcements about speeding up returns. Also, General Fonseka's open-secret consideration of running for president has lessened enthusiasm in leadership circles for the military. This might make it easier for civilian authorities to move IDPs from transit camps to their homes, movements which the military earlier had carte blanche to block at the local level due to security considerations. In any case, we will be watching closely for any evidence of whether the GSL is beginning to change its approach. BUTENIS