SRI LANKA IS MEETING IMF TARGETS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000905 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EEB JENNIFER PETERSON AND TANYA SPENCER DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY FOR MALACHY NUGENT AND ATTICUS WELLER USTR FOR MICHAEL DELANEY AND VICTORIA KADER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CE ECON EFIN IMF PGOV SUBJECT: SRI LANKA IS MEETING IMF TARGETS REF: COLOMBO 724 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. An IMF team conducting its first quarterly assessment has determined that Sri Lanka is meeting the targets of the July IMF standby agreement, and it appears that the IMF staff will recommend release of the second tranche of IMF funds in October. The IMF agreement, combined with optimism from the end of Sri Lanka,s conflict and an improving external economic environment, has encouraged substantial inflows of foreign capital into Sri Lanka. Although the road forward will be challenging, the IMF believes that Sri Lanka is on track to build international foreign reserves, control expenditure, increase government revenue, and reform the banking sector. The IMF will establish an office housed in the Sri Lankan Central Bank to monitor compliance. Overall, the IMF seems more optimistic than several local economists. End Summary. IMF Mission Background ¶2. (SBU) Sri Lanka reached an agreement in July to disburse $2.6 billion in eight separate tranches, with the provision that the IMF would conduct quarterly reviews of Sri Lanka,s progress toward IMF goals. The IMF conducted the first such review September 8-22. Brian Aitken, head of the IMF mission, met privately with econoff to discuss their findings on September 21, and then held a press conference September 22 with the GSL. Aitken commented that the GSL has been very transparent, posted the IMF letter of intent on its Central Bank website, and was very open during the review process. The IMF mission will prepare a report for the IMF board in late October, and the board will decide whether to disburse the next tranche of $322 million. The IMF will establish an office in the Central Bank to monitor Sri Lanka,s economic health. Sri Lanka is meeting the IMF Targets ¶3. (SBU) There have been very large inflows of foreign exchange into Sri Lanka, which swelled Sri Lanka,s foreign exchange reserves from $1.2 billion in March (about one month of import cover) to $4.1 billion today. The IMF agreement provided confidence to private investors that Sri Lanka is on the right track. For instance, a U.S. based hedge fund has purchased $875 million in two and four year Sri Lankan rupee denominated government bonds. The hedge fund receives a high interest rate from these bonds, and even though they have taken on an exchange rate risk, several economists opined that the hedge fund,s bet is reasonable. Similarly, the Sri Lanka Central Bank is preparing to issue $500 million in government bonds, and the IMF,s Aitken guessed that the bond issue would be oversubscribed. Sri Lanka,s current account deficit declined by almost 60% in the first six months of 2009, an 18% drop in exports was overshadowed by a 36% fall in imports, and remittances from workers abroad increased 5.4%. Finally, the Standard and Poor,s rating service has revised Sri Lanka,s sovereign ratings outlook from negative to stable. ¶4. (SBU) Sri Lanka is having some success controlling its spending. According to a local business journal,s analysis, total government spending increased by 8% in the first half of 2009, a period including the end of their 30 year civil war. After the conflict, the GSL told Aitken that military costs would remain stable. The GSL has an ambitious plan to spend up to $2.4 billion on reconstruction of the war ravaged North and East, and the GSL hopes to receive substantial donor and private sector funding to cover much of these costs. The Central Bank estimates that yearly GSL spending would average 0.8% of total GDP, or approximately $320 million per year. Interest rates have also fallen, which will help reduce government payments to cover its debt. The real test will be the 2010 budget. The GSL is scheduled to draw up the parameters of its spending in October and will present its budget in November. ¶5. (SBU) The most difficult challenge will be to increase revenue so that Sri Lanka escapes from chronic balance of payments crisis. Government revenue fell by an estimated 6% COLOMBO 00000905 002 OF 002 in the first half of 2009, reflecting declining imports (GSL derives a key segment of its revenue from import duties) and a weak domestic economy. The GSL has targeted increasing its revenue by 2% of GDP by 2011, starting from the 14.9% collected in 2008. Aitken was optimist that the GSL is ready to make fundamental reforms to increase revenue, and he noted that Sri Lanka has already increased its "nation building tax" from 1.5 to 3%. Sri Lanka will also benefit from increased revenues as the economy improves and imports increase. GSL has a Presidential Commission to examine ways to increase revenue, focusing on widening the taxpayer base rather than increasing tax rates. Currently there are only 650,000 taxpayers (out of a total 20 million population) but the GSL to start collecting from 1 million taxpayers by 2010. ¶6. (SBU) The GSL could meet its IMF target for two key state owned enterprises (SOE) to break even financially by ¶2011. The Ceylon Petroleum Company (CPC) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) chronically lose money, but the IMF team thought that the GSL has fully committed to reforming these SOEs to stop the drain on government finances. The CPC has benefited from falling international oil prices, while they have kept domestic retail oil prices high. Similarly, the CEB is building a coal fired electricity plant, so they could benefit from moving from high cost oil to cheaper coal. It is not clear that the GSL has planned real reforms of either SOE. ¶7. (U) The IMF assessment was that the Sri Lanka financial industry was in good shape. Sri Lanka avoided much of the direct contagion of the global financial crisis because they did not delve deeply into sophisticated financial instruments like derivatives. Although the level of non-performing loans is rising, reflecting weakness in certain domestic sectors, overall the financial system is well capitalized and the IMF did not foresee a systemic risk. The IMF also thinks that the Central Bank supervision of the banking industry is good. ¶8. (U) Sri Lanka,s GDP growth expectations are picking up. The IMF increased its growth forecast from 3% to 3.5% in 2009, within the range of the Central Bank,s forecast of 3.5% to 4.5% growth. The Central Bank forecasts growth to improve to 6% in 2010, and it could reach the 7% range thereafter. Will the GSL stick to the IMF fiscal medicine? ¶9. (SBU) The big question is whether Sri Lanka will stick to the IMF targets and discipline. Several private sector economists and business leaders were pleased with the IMF,s involvement, which they believe will encourage GSL fiscal discipline. The GSL now has good international reserves, although the build up in reserves is predicated on confidence built on the IMF agreement. Therefore, at least in the short term, it seems that the GSL has incentives to continue meeting its IMF targets. ¶10. (SBU) Comment. Econoff was surprised by the IMF,s optimistic assessment. Although clearly the GSL has built up its reserves, and private capital is flowing into portfolio investments, many economists and businessmen are skeptical that the GSL will be able to continue to meet its spending and revenue targets. The GSL plans to call Presidential and Parliamentary elections over the next six months, which could lead to excessive spending. End Comment. BUTENIS