GOVERNMENT OF SRI LANKA LIKELY SOON TO BAN LTTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000012 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA AND S/CT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER CE SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT OF SRI LANKA LIKELY SOON TO BAN LTTE REF: COLOMBO 3 Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr. for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) A senior Government Minister confirmed to Ambassador on January 5 that the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) is likely to ban the LTTE as early as Wednesday, January 7. Although he was one of the Ministers involved in lifting the ban in 2002 so the Government could open peace talks with the LTTE, the Minister confided that recent GSL military successes had given impetus to JVP, JHU and other Sinhalese nationalists within the Cabinet who not only want to pursue a military solution to crush the LTTE, but also want to take advantage of public support for recent military progress to also pursue measures to curb Tamil nationalism. The Minister confided there is no support in the Cabinet any longer for talks with the LTTE so the proposal to ban the LTTE is likely to be approved with wide support. However, he expressed concern about the wider agenda to curb Tamil nationalism which he saw as an opportunistic move by Sinhalese nationalists to pre-empt any kind of political solution. He said he and other moderates in the Cabinets quietly have spoken to President Rajapakse who thus far remains committed to a political solution, albeit after the LTTE has been defeated. ¶2. (C) Ambassador subsequently spoke with Norwegian Ambassador Hattrem who agreed the GSL was likely to ban the LTTE in the near future. He said he had urged the GSL not to take this course since it does not gain the Government anything. But he assessed that his appeal would have no impact given the groundswell of support for the idea. ¶3. (C) Comment: We and other diplomats successfully persuaded the GSL not to ban the LTTE when this idea came up in the early and middle part of 2007 with the argument that a ban would close off the possibility of dialogue with the LTTE, and that it is always useful to have at least a backchannel open to talk to the LTTE. However, the GSL never opened any backchannel and the recent capture of Kilinochchi (reftel) has reinforced optimism in Government circles that a military victory over the LTTE is possible and therefore there is no need to talk to the LTTE. Post's view is that even if the GSL is able to occupy all of northern Sri Lanka, the LTTE is likely to go underground and pursue a terrorist insurgency with continued financial support from the Tamil diaspora and logistical support from Tamils in Sri Lanka who remain skeptical of the GSL's commitment to the Tamils. Ambassador will speak with the President's senior advisor and brother Basil Rajapakse, who returns from leave on January 6, about this matter. Given the US designation of the LTTE as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, we do not expect to make headway with this argument. Post shares Norwegian and other views that the ban is likely to be approved. Septel later in the week will consider in more depth the rise of Sinhalese chauvinism in the wake of the fall of Kilinochchi and other recent military successes. Blake