Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09COLOMBO1145
2009-12-16 12:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:
SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.2
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C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001145
C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDED PASSING INSTRUCTIONS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB
RELEASABLE TO: UK, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.2
Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)
FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE APPEARS TO SUPPORT FONSEKA
--------------------------------------------- --
C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001145
C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDED PASSING INSTRUCTIONS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB
RELEASABLE TO: UK, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.2
Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)
FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE APPEARS TO SUPPORT FONSEKA
-------------- --
1. (C) Former Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva spoke at an event
organized by UNF member Mangala Samaraweera on December 15,
criticizing the concentration of powers developed through the
executive presidency under Mahinda Rajapaksa. Fonseka was a
"surprise" guest at the event, and local media published
photos on December 16 of Silva shaking hands with him. Some
observers have said Silva is a possible pick for the office
of prime minister if Fonseka were to win the election.
PRESIDENTIAL POLLSTER SURPRISED BY GOOD FIGURES
-------------- --
2. (C) President Rajapaksa's chief opinion pollster -- who is
a good contact of the EMBASSY on other issues -- shared with
us the first findings from their initial survey. Admitting
that he earlier believed the contest was going to be very
tight, the pollster told us he was surprised at how well the
president appeared to be doing. 1,000 responses had come
back for the Central Province (a total of 25,000 responses
would eventually be received from the entire island). These
initial responses indicated that potential voters had little
interest in the symbolic issues. Only about 10 percent cared
about the president's creation of a "patriotic society" after
the war or his willingness to stand tall against the West.
Also, many voters saw the Rajapaksa family as corrupt (85
percent) and the president himself as corrupt (80 percent).
Despite all his faults, the pollster claimed, many voters
still saw Rajapaksa as a man of action and a man of his word
and would vote for him over Fonseka. The figures showed
Sinhala voters preferring the president over Fonseka 83 to 17
percent; Tamils 65 to 35 percent; and Muslims 60 to 40
percent. As the pollster put it, "voters seem to prefer the
tested man, with all his faults." He said he was at first
reluctant to share the data with the president because it
seemed too good to be true.
3. (C) The campaign had hired a small Indian firm that
specializes in high-tech paperless surveys. Surveyors were
sent to selected respondees with cell-phone-based electronic
devices, which also had GPS components. The latter allowed
the pollsters to track where the surveyors were at any given
time and to ensure that the surveys were, in fact, being done
properly. For example, each survey should take 18 minutes.
If a surveyor was in a house for 12 minutes or less, he was
not paid and that household was removed from the sample.
4. (C) COMMENT: The pollster prides himself on being one of
the few figures in the president's circle who gives him
objective information and is not a yes-man. He said he
understood these figures were preliminary and that anything
could happen between now and January 26. He does not appear
to be trying to mislead us but he could still be falling
victim to wish-fulfillment group-think within the president's
circle. We find interesting the very high negatives for the
president on corruption and the apparent lack of voter
interest in Rajapaksa's standard patriotic issues, which
could eat away at the president's positive figures as the
campaign progresses. END COMMENT.
BUTENIS
C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDED PASSING INSTRUCTIONS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB
RELEASABLE TO: UK, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, SWITZERLAND
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.2
Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)
FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE APPEARS TO SUPPORT FONSEKA
-------------- --
1. (C) Former Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva spoke at an event
organized by UNF member Mangala Samaraweera on December 15,
criticizing the concentration of powers developed through the
executive presidency under Mahinda Rajapaksa. Fonseka was a
"surprise" guest at the event, and local media published
photos on December 16 of Silva shaking hands with him. Some
observers have said Silva is a possible pick for the office
of prime minister if Fonseka were to win the election.
PRESIDENTIAL POLLSTER SURPRISED BY GOOD FIGURES
-------------- --
2. (C) President Rajapaksa's chief opinion pollster -- who is
a good contact of the EMBASSY on other issues -- shared with
us the first findings from their initial survey. Admitting
that he earlier believed the contest was going to be very
tight, the pollster told us he was surprised at how well the
president appeared to be doing. 1,000 responses had come
back for the Central Province (a total of 25,000 responses
would eventually be received from the entire island). These
initial responses indicated that potential voters had little
interest in the symbolic issues. Only about 10 percent cared
about the president's creation of a "patriotic society" after
the war or his willingness to stand tall against the West.
Also, many voters saw the Rajapaksa family as corrupt (85
percent) and the president himself as corrupt (80 percent).
Despite all his faults, the pollster claimed, many voters
still saw Rajapaksa as a man of action and a man of his word
and would vote for him over Fonseka. The figures showed
Sinhala voters preferring the president over Fonseka 83 to 17
percent; Tamils 65 to 35 percent; and Muslims 60 to 40
percent. As the pollster put it, "voters seem to prefer the
tested man, with all his faults." He said he was at first
reluctant to share the data with the president because it
seemed too good to be true.
3. (C) The campaign had hired a small Indian firm that
specializes in high-tech paperless surveys. Surveyors were
sent to selected respondees with cell-phone-based electronic
devices, which also had GPS components. The latter allowed
the pollsters to track where the surveyors were at any given
time and to ensure that the surveys were, in fact, being done
properly. For example, each survey should take 18 minutes.
If a surveyor was in a house for 12 minutes or less, he was
not paid and that household was removed from the sample.
4. (C) COMMENT: The pollster prides himself on being one of
the few figures in the president's circle who gives him
objective information and is not a yes-man. He said he
understood these figures were preliminary and that anything
could happen between now and January 26. He does not appear
to be trying to mislead us but he could still be falling
victim to wish-fulfillment group-think within the president's
circle. We find interesting the very high negatives for the
president on corruption and the apparent lack of voter
interest in Rajapaksa's standard patriotic issues, which
could eat away at the president's positive figures as the
campaign progresses. END COMMENT.
BUTENIS