NAFTA, ELECTORAL POLITICS AND ALLEGATIONS OF PROTECTIONISM:

UNCLAS CIUDAD JUAREZ 000021 DEPARTMENT FOR EEB:ANU PRATTIPATI;DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FOR DAVID OLSON;DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USTR JOHN MELLE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD PGOV MX SUBJECT: NAFTA, ELECTORAL POLITICS AND ALLEGATIONS OF PROTECTIONISM: THE ELIMINATION OF USED CAR TARIFFS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BORDER ¶1. Summary: On January 1, 2009, Mexico eliminated tariffs for imports of used cars ten years and older from the United States and Canada. The implementation of the new tariff structure brings Mexico into technical compliance with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) rules that went into effect on that date. President Calderon's decision, however, to require that imported used vehicles obtain a certificate of origin, a document that manufacturers are reluctant to issue, has effectively blocked all used car imports at the border. Calderon's political opponents and used car dealers in Chihuahua claim that the President's motive for issuing this requirement is to protect Mexican automakers. They argue that the new measure will hurt the border economy and disrupt the fight against organized crime by impeding the process for citizens to legally register used vehicles. Despite the announcement on January 21 by the President of the Mexican Senate, Gustavo Madero Munoz, that the GoM will lower the reference prices on imported used vehicles by 50 percent, there is still no agreement on the certificate of origin requirement. Background - Turmoil in the Auto Industry ¶2. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has changed the institutional framework of the Mexican economy and radically liberalized its highly protected domestic automotive market. Since NAFTA took effect in 1994, the Mexican auto industry has thrived, becoming a critical driver of economic growth and job creation in Mexico. For instance, in the first ten years of NAFTA, the Mexican auto industry created over 200,000 new jobs. Industry analysts estimate that the average salary associated with the new jobs created in this sector is 30 percent higher than the national average. This gap can largely be attributed to the higher skill premium required for workers in this sector, which has been supported by greater international competition and an infusion of auto-related foreign direct investment (FDI). Mexico's auto sector currently accounts for approximately 4 percent of Mexican GDP and around 20 percent of total manufacturing output. ¶3. The recent turmoil surrounding the global economic crisis has hit Mexican auto manufacturers hard. The industry, which exports over 70 percent of its total production to the United States, experienced significant declines in both overall production and domestic sales in 2008. According to the website for the Mexican Auto Industry Association (AMIA),sales of domestically produced automobiles fell 6.8 percent in 2008. Moreover, Mexico's National Institute for Statistics (INEGI) projects that production in the manufacturing sector, of which the auto industry is an important component, will decline 3.6 percent in 2009. Other industry experts, such as Eduardo Solis, the President of AMIA, forecast worse domestic market conditions for the auto sector. He claims that domestic vehicle production could fall by 20 percent in 2009. NAFTA Eliminates Tariffs on Used Car Imports ¶4. Beginning on January 1, 2009, NAFTA regulations require that Mexico begin a ten-year process of phasing out restrictions on used cars imported from Canada and the United States. The first phase, which will last until December 30, 2010, requires Mexico to eliminate all tariffs on used vehicles originating from a NAFTA country that are at least 10 years old. ¶5. In response to the tariff elimination requirements, the GoM has chosen to invoke Article 501 of NAFTA, which allows it to require that imported used vehicles obtain a certificate of origin from the manufacturer to claim preferential tariff treatment. According to USG sources close to the trade negotiation process with the GoM, "the USG tried to impress upon them the impossibility of producers providing a certificate of origin." The source explained that auto manufacturers are reluctant to provide certificates of origin to exporters of used vehicles largely due to the difficulty in verifying that the vehicles, after ten or more years of repair and maintenance, still meet the 62.5 percent rule of origin requirement stipulated by NAFTA. Mexico's Decree on Used Car Imports ¶6. Under NAFTA, Annex 300-A-2, paragraph 24(a),Mexico may adopt or maintain prohibitions or restrictions on imports of used vehicles, unless otherwise stipulated in NAFTA text. As such, the GoM chose to issue a presidential decree to establish the conditions for the importation of used vehicles into Mexico. The new decree governs Mexico's auto imports from January 1, 2009 until December 31, 2010. Salient Elements of the Auto Decree ¶7. The decree, inter alia, establishes Mexico's legal requirement for all imported used vehicles, ten years and older, to present the previously discussed certificate of origin. For vehicles that do not have a certificate of origin, the GoM will levy a 10 percent tariff, provided that the Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) verifies that the vehicle was manufactured in the United States or Canada. However, if the vehicle lacks a certificate of origin and a valid VIN, the importer will be required to pay a 50 percent Most Favored Nation (MFN) duty. ¶8. The decree also abolishes President Vicente Fox's decree of August 22, 2005, and the subsequent injunction (amparo) from April 26, 2006, which provided the northern border region with a preferential import duty structure for used car imports. The Mexican Automotive Distributors Association (AMIA) contends that from January 2006 to March 2008 (and this figure is supported by U.S. Department of Commerce statistics),Mexico imported over 2.5 million used automobiles under this preferential agreement. Many of these vehicles were transported out of the border area and into other regions of Mexico where the preferential duty structure did not apply. Charges of Protectionism ¶9. During periods of reduced economic growth, consumers tend to purchase cheaper, used vehicles rather than new, more expensive vehicles. Through government intervention, the GoM has distorted the market incentives for Mexican consumers. By requiring importers to obtain a certificate of origin that manufacturers are reluctant to issue, the GoM has imposed a new barrier on used vehicle imports. This barrier reduces the supply of imported vehicles, thus driving up the price for all used vehicles in Mexico. Consequently, the price difference between used and new vehicles will shrink, making Mexican-produced, new automobiles more competitive. ¶10. Among the most vocal opponents of the new decree include members of the used car industry, the National Chamber of Commerce (Canaco) and politicians from Mexico's PRI party. In a recent conversation with a Consulate officer, the Secretary of the City Council in Ciudad Juarez, Guillermo Dowell, a member of the PRI, commented that the decree issued under PAN leadership is undoubtedly designed to protect Mexico's automakers. Other groups, such as the American Salvage Pool Association (ASPA),an exporter of used vehicles to Mexico, agree. Representatives from ASPA contend that the decree is not an appropriate response to address the slowdown in the auto sector. In their estimate there is a positive correlation between used and new car sales. (Note: Other analysts respond that while a positive correlation may exist, the demand elasticity for new car sales is higher than used car sales.) Environmental Argument ¶11. Despite legal requirements in previous decrees that used vehicle imports meet U.S. environmental standards, in practice, Mexico has minimal enforcement capacity at its ports of entry. Consequently, many proponents of the current auto decree argue that a large percentage of the 2.5 million used vehicles imported from 2006 to 2008 emit dangerous levels of contaminants. As previously mentioned, despite being required to remain in the border region to receive preferential treatment, many of these vehicles were transported to the interior of Mexico, leading to greater pollution in urban centers. ¶12. Article 5 of the current auto decree reiterates the emissions standards requirement. Nonetheless, the Mexican Customs Administrator at the Cordova International Bridge in Ciudad Juarez, Ricardo Hernandez, told a Consulate officer in early January that the Customs Administration currently has no mechanism to verify the compliance of environmental standards for used vehicle imports. Decree's Impact on Chihuahua ¶13. On January 1, 2009, the Chihuahua state government implemented a "Zero Tolerance" program for unregistered vehicles operating without a license plate. The government will implement the new program within the framework of the Operacion Conjunta Chihuahua - a security program designed to combat organized crime. The "Zero Tolerance" program coincides with the State's triennial requirement for all vehicles to renew their license plates. The Secretary of the City Council in Ciudad Juarez, Dowell, explained that "the program seeks to address the security problem posed by the thousands of unregistered vehicles circulating in the streets of Chihuahua." Many of these unregistered vehicles, known locally as "carros chocolates," entered Mexico legally on temporary import permits - often with Texas license plates - and overstayed. Organized criminal organizations frequently use these vehicles to commit crimes, thus complicating Mexican law enforcement's efforts to identify and apprehend criminals. ¶14. According to Dowell, the new Certificate of Origin requirements work against the "Zero Tolerance" program by making it harder to register vehicles that were already imported but not yet registered. The President of the Juarez Customs Brokers Association, Fernando Avila, says that the decree makes the cost of legally importing used vehicles prohibitive. He added that only three vehicles were registered for importation in Ciudad Juarez from January 1 to January 15 of this year. This compares with over 150 vehicles registered during this same period in ¶2007. If these conditions continue, Mr. Avila estimates that 20,000 - 30,000 jobs related to the used car industry in Ciudad Juarez will be at risk. Meanwhile, Dowell says that authorities will not impound unregistered vehicles until the import duty issue is resolved. Next Steps ¶15. In mid-January, the Governor of Chihuahua, Jose Reyes Baeza Terrazas, and the Mayor of Ciudad Juarez, Jose Reyes Ferriz, both from the PRI, met separately with federal authorities in Mexico City to request changes to the auto decree. They requested a 50 percent reduction in the reference prices for imported vehicles, which they claim are inflated and arbitrarily determined by federal authorities. On January 21, the President of the Mexican Senate, Gustavo Madero Munoz, announced that Hacienda had agreed to lower the reference prices on imported used vehicles by 50 percent. However, there is still no agreement on the certificate of origin requirement. Guillermo Dowell claimed that if the federal government does not change its position, local authorities will file "amparos" - or injunctions - allowing importers to continue operations. Moreover, he said that the Mayor has not ruled out the possibility of filing a formal dispute against the Mexican Government in the NAFTA Disputes Resolution Forum. ¶16. Comment: Given the importance of Mexico's auto sector to the domestic economy, combined with the somber industrial production forecast for 2009, there is extensive pressure on Mexican politicians to protect the industry. Responding to this challenge has been complicated by election-year politics. (On July 5, Mexico will hold congressional elections, as well as gubernatorial elections for six states). In this recent debate, the PAN has supported the domestic auto manufacturers, while the PRI has rallied behind used car dealers, especially along the northern border. In Chihuahua, politicians from the PRI have tried to use the auto decree to portray President Calderon and the PAN as "out of touch" with the economic and security challenges along the border. Moreover, this plays into a narrative propagated by local PRI politicians that federal authorities are not effectively responding to the threat of organized crime. If the local and federal authorities are unable to reach an agreement on the import requirements for used vehicles, used auto car unions, the National Chamber of Commerce, politicians, and others have vowed to protest, possibly blocking international commercial traffic from Ciudad Juarez into El Paso. MCGRATH