PARLIAMENT FAILS TO ELECT PRESIDENT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000944

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT FAILS TO ELECT PRESIDENT:
LIKELY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN 2010

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: On December 7, the Moldovan
parliament failed to elect Marian Lupu as
president, since the Communists boycotted the
vote, and Lupu fell eight ballots short. This
moves Moldova into the next phase of the
democratic process required to elect a president.
Under Moldovan legislation, parliament must be
disbanded so that new parliamentary elections can
be held, but no earlier than June 2010. As no one
wants an electoral campaign over the summer, most
observers expect new elections no earlier than
fall 2010. Alliance leaders also have been
discussing other scenarios to elect the president
such as by introducing a new constitution, or by
using a referendum to introduce direct popular
presidential elections. Despite the ongoing
political drama, nothing has substantively changed
for the Alliance government, which is functioning
and continues to hold its parliamentary majority.
End Summary.

Parliament Fails to Elect President
--------------


2. (SBU) At a special session of the Moldovan
parliament convened for the second round of
presidential voting on December 7, the Alliance
for European Integration candidate Marian Lupu,
who was the single candidate registered, failed to
garner the 61 votes needed to be elected as
President. As in the first round of voting
November 10, the Party of Communists (PCRM)
announced that they would boycott the voting and
the 48 PCRM deputies filed out of the hall. The
remaining 53 Alliance deputies proceeded with the
balloting, but without the PCRM, the vote fell
short.

No Morning-After Pill for Next Day Regrets
--------------


3. (C) PCRM MP Vladimir Turcan had talked both
privately to us and publicly to the press about
his desire to vote for Lupu. He also told us that
his vote was conditional on enough PCRM deputies
crossing the aisle with him. However, on the day
of the balloting, he mutely left the hall together
with the blockading Communists. On the day after
the balloting he announced to the press that he
regretted the PCRM decision not to vote, and that
he would be leaving the Communist faction. Former
Deputy Prime Minister Victor Stepaniuc, who was
expected to join Turcan in voting for Lupu, also
publicly announced his regrets about the PCRM
decision not to vote.


4. (SBU) PCRM faction leader Vladimir Voronin was
pleased about his party's boycott of the voting.
He was shown grinning at a PCRM press conference
and making his standard accusation that Ghimpu
that "had three brain surgeries."

New Elections for Fall 2010?
--------------


5. (SBU) According to Moldovan legislation, if the
parliament fails to elect a president in two
rounds of voting, then the parliament should be
dissolved, and new parliamentary elections held.
As parliament cannot be dissolved twice in one
year, and the parliament that was elected on April
5 was dissolved last on June 15, 2009, this means
that the current parliament will remain in power
at least until June 15, 2010. As it is widely
believed that the Moldovans will not want to carry
out an electoral campaign over the summer period,
most observers expect that the parliamentary
elections are most likely to be scheduled for fall

2010.

Alliance to Explore Other Options
--------------


6. (C) Alliance leaders also have told us that
they will examine possibilities for changing
Moldova's current, cumbersome mechanism (61 votes
in the 101-seat Parliament) of electing the

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president. The problem, however, is that this
mechanism is enshrined in the country's
constitution. And as constitutional amendments
require a two-thirds majority of 67 votes (which
is even harder to reach than the presidential
majority of 61 votes),some Alliance leaders are
considering introducing a new constitution,
although Lupu is opposed. On December 1, Acting
President Ghimpu signed a decree establishing a
Commission for Constitutional Reform to make
suggestions about constitutional change and/or
draft a new constitution.


7. (SBU) In a popular television talk show, "In
Profunzime (In Depth)" on the evening of December
7, Ghimpu noted that if the current constitution
which required the parliament to be dissolved was
no longer in force in June 2010, then it was
entirely possible to avoid dissolving the
parliament. He also suggested that before June, a
referendum could be organized to resolve the issue
of procedures for electing a president.


8. (SBU) Marian Lupu, who has publically opposed
the idea of introducing a new constitution,
suggested instead that the country hold a
referendum on constitutional changes that would
allow the Moldovan public to elect the president
through a system of direct popular voting.


Comment
--------------


9. (C) With the parliament's failure to elect a
president on December 7, Moldova will now move
into the next phase in the democratic process.
The Alliance will actively discuss constitutional
and legal measures to change the mechanism for
presidential election, although it is not clear
how cohesive their thinking is on this issue.
Looking towards the possibility of new
parliamentary elections in 2010, the Alliance
leaders may have to amend the election law in
order to run as a bloc, as currently parties can
only run separately.


10. (C) The PCRM is counting on tensions within
the Alliance to grow -- in particular, they are
hoping that the budding rivalry between PM Filat
and Lupu will lead to a split. At the same time,
the Alliance leaders are counting on a schism
within the PCRM, as Turcan and others appear set
to split from the party.


11. (C) Despite the ongoing political drama, it is
important to remember that nothing has
substantively changed for the GoM right now. The
Alliance government is functioning and legitimate.
It will remain in place as it has been since
October, with a Prime Minister, a Cabinet of
Ministers and an Alliance-controlled parliament.
They seek support from Europe and the USG to be
able to continue to demonstrate to the population
the continued benefits of a government with a pro-
Western orientation. To the extent that they can
successfully maintain their cohesion and
institutionalize reforms, the benefits of being
the incumbent running the government will accrue
before any future referendum or elections.


12. (C) While the months ahead may harden the
confrontation between the Alliance and the
Communists, this period will allow extra time for
the political tendencies in the country to
clarify. If the Alliance is successful in
demonstrating its cohesion and leadership, the
PCRM decline will likely accelerate. Though the
Communists were able to maintain party discipline
in the Parliament hall on December 7 to prevent
its deputies from voting, they are unlikely to be
able to prevent the deputies who favored voting
from breaking ranks with the party and leaving the
faction. These next months will be critical for
Moldova in determining its political future and
the strength of its desire for European
integration.

CHAUDHRY