AMN LEADER URECHEAN BELIEVES LUPU WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000928

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: AMN LEADER URECHEAN BELIEVES LUPU WILL
BE ELECTED PRESIDENT

Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a December 2 meeting, AMN
leader Serafim Urechean told the Ambassador that
he believed that Alliance candidate Lupu would be
elected as President. He said that the process of
cutting a deal was well underway, but still needed
a few more days. Urechean suggested that a lot
depended upon Communist Party leader Voronin's
moods, but the latter had given several
indications that the Communists might
vote. Urechean was concerned about strains within
the Alliance, but remained convinced that working
together the four leaders could reach their
political goals. Urechean was aware that Prime
Minister Filat had approached AMN Deputy leader
Untila proposing a "murky partnership" which would
lead to eliminating Urechean as AMN party leader
and the merging of the two parties. Urechean had
chosen not to raise this with Filat now, as it was
preferable that all four focus on getting Lupu
elected as President. Urechean suggested that
Filat needed assurances that he would retain his
Prime Minister's seat if Lupu were elected. End
Summary

Still Possible to Elect a President
--------------


2. (C) AMN leader Serafim Urechean opened his
December 2 meeting with the Ambassador by noting
that the road towards presidential elections was a
roller coaster of positive and negative
conflicting signals. Urechean was meeting with
PCRM deputies and trying to convince them to vote.
He found that many were saying "yes" but at the
same time pointing "in fear" to the picture of
Voronin on the wall.


3. (C) Urechean said that he believed that Lupu
would be elected as President. He said that the
information continued to be contradictory, with
PCRM activities being so chaotic that it was
difficult to understand what was the truth.
Urechean noted that a lot depended upon Voronin's
mercurial moods. During the December 1 PCRM
Political Committee meeting, Voronin had been most
categorical that the PCRM would not vote, but
later that evening in another meeting, he had said
that they would vote.


4. (C) Urechean said he believed PCRM MP Turcan
(ringleader of a group of PCRM MPs backing Lupu)
had as many as 15 PCRM MPs ready to join him in
breaking from the Communist Party faction (Note: a
day earlier Turcan had told us he only had 6-
8). Urechean suggested that one PCRM deputy in
Turcan's camp was former PM Greceanii, with whom
he enjoyed very good relations. Greceanii had
been born in Siberia after her parents were
exiled, he said, and his relatives had educated
her and brought her up. Now, he said, Greceanii
was in despair. She had said to Urechean that she
was ready to switch sides if needed. Urechean
said that Greceanii had already talked with
Voronin about the group's intention to vote and
suggested that they would have more information
about Greceanii's level of commitment by the next
day.

Concern about Strains within the Alliance
--------------


5. (C) Urechean said that the Alliance needed
better coordination. He had been "astounded" and
severely disappointed by the lack of Alliance
unity displayed on the November 30 PRO-TV Talk
Show when Alliance representatives had openly
disagreed with Lupu's 12 Principles (Note: Lupu's
proposal of promises to the PCRM if they voted for
him). Urechean said he had suffered a sleepless
night worrying about what happened, and expressed
his concerns that some Alliance figures did not
understand how much a public word could count
politically. Urechean had tough discussions with
the other Alliance leaders warning them they could
lose popular support if such cracks in the
Alliance are seen publically. Urechean had warned
both Ghimpu and Filat not to talk about sensitive

issues of language and history.


6. (C) Urechean said that he personally had no
problems with the other Alliance leaders, but that
the main tension between Lupu and Filat was
palpable. Urechean noted rumors that Filat was
promoting the idea that Communists should not vote
for Lupu. He said that he personally did not
believe what was being said about Filat, but
worried that where there was so much smoke, there
might be some kind of a fire. Urechean noted that
Filat had betrayed him in 2005 when he voted for
Voronin then. Urechean confirmed that the
Alliance would have a system of control over the
voting in place on December 7, which would allow
them to check each vote and know if any MPs
betrayed Lupu.


7. (C) Urechean reported Filat's concern that if
Lupu became President, he (Filat) could be
dismissed from his position as Prime Minister.
Urechean vowed that he would never vote for
Filat's dismissal, but noted that if the
Democratic Party voted together with the PCRM,
they would have enough votes. (Comment: We note
that this would not be possible, since there are
several PD deputies who are close to Filat and
would not go along with such a scenario.)

Filat Scheming in Scenario to Merge with AMN Party
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Urechean confided that Filat had approached
AMN Deputy Untila, suggesting a "murky
partnership." Filat had shown interest in the
local structures of AMN. Urechean explained that
AMN had local branches in all raions, and was the
only party within the Alliance that had
territorial branches throughout the country.
Filat's PLDM did not have control over any local
or raion councils, whereas AMN had 2,500 local-
level officials including 220 village mayors, 7
town mayors, 14 raion chairmen and 7 deputy
chairmen. Ghimpu's PL had a few such seats, PD a
handful, but PLDM had none.


9. (C) Urechean said he knew Filat had approached
Untila offering a scenario to eliminate Urechean
as head of the party. According to this plan,
Untila would then merge the AMN party with Filat's
PLDM. In the case of early elections, Filat would
then have access to AMN's national structure,
while the PLDM's voter popularity would guarantee
Untila a seat in Parliament that AMN might
otherwise fail to win. Urechean said that Iurie
Kolesnic was also with Untila in this potential
scheme. Urechean expressed some regret that Filat
was poaching within his party, but said he had not
raised the issue with him. Urechean said he was
not concerned and that he felt strong enough not
to need to say anything to Filat about it at this
time.

Unity is Important for Reaching Political Goals
-------------- --


10. (C) Urechean's greatest concern was that if
the Alliance was discredited, they would lose the
chance for political change in Moldova. Despite
the reports of disagreements and political
scheming, Urechean remained convinced that working
together was important. He said he had told his
Alliance partners that it was important to be
honest with each other. The four had an historic
opportunity to enact positive change in Moldova.
If the opportunity was lost, then nation would not
forgive them.


11. (C) Urechean therefore believed it was
important for the Alliance leaders to do
everything possible to elect Lupu. Urechean
suggested that the Alliance needed to give
guarantees to Filat that he would not be dismissed
from his Prime Ministerial seat if Lupu were
elected President.


12. (C) Urechean said he realized that no party
was strong enough to win an outright majority and
thus Moldova would be run by a coalition for many
years to come. If the four leaders were

discredited and the current coalition failed, a
center-left coalition would come to power and the
dynamic of reform and European Integration would
be different. Urechean did not want to lose this
chance to help lead Moldova in the direction of
reform.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Urechean displayed a quiet confidence that
a President would be elected on December 7. Even
in the face of evidence that one Alliance partner
was threatening his party's interests, Urechean
remained focused on the Alliance's key political
goals of leading the country to reform and
European integration. The priorities he
articulated need to be at the core of the
Alliance's vision, that the four leaders must
remain united and work together in order to be
successful.

CHAUDHRY