TRANSNISTRIANS CALL FOR RUSSIANS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000829 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PARM PBTS MARR PINR RS MD SUBJECT: TRANSNISTRIANS CALL FOR RUSSIANS TO INCREASE SIZE OF PEACEKEEPING FORCE Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) REF: CHISINAU 801 ¶1. (C) Summary: Following the October 14 grenade blast in Chisinau (reftel),on October 15 the Transnistrians issued a call for the Russians to make a fivefold increase to the size of its peacekeeping contingent, enlarging the group from 400 to 2,400. The Transnistrians cited the recent events in Chisinau and the possibility of a destabilized situation as proof of their need for extra security. This is not the first time they have made such a call, as a similar request was made in April, following the April 7 violence. Calls for an increase in the size of the Russian contingent are an ongoing part of Transnistrian policy, but the Russians are unable to respond without Chisinau's approval. It is possible that the Russians are using Tiraspol to voice their own desire to increase the size of their force. End Summary. Tiraspol Calls for Russians to Deploy More Troops -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On October 15, following the grenade blast in the center of town on the evening of October 14, the Transnistrian delegation to the Joint Control Commission (JCC) released a statement requesting that Russia deploy 2,000 extra peacekeeping troops and a helicopter squadron. The document stressed that this request was in response to recent statements made by the new Moldovan authorities, in particular comments about the need replace the current peacekeepers with European civilian observers. The Transnistrian request stated that any external presence except for the Russian one would "be perceived by Transnistrians as an absolutely negative and hostile one." ¶3. (U) The JCC, which includes delegations from Moldova, Russia and Transnistria, is the supervising body of the peacekeeping contingent which consists of three battalions - Moldovan, Russian and Transnistrian. It is deployed in the Security Zone (SZ),a demilitarized buffer zone between Transnistria and the rest of Moldova. Background on Russian Deployment of Peacekeepers -------------- --- ¶4. (SBU) After the Moldovan and Russian presidents signed the ceasefire agreement in 1992 putting an end to war in Transnistria, Russia deployed some 2,400 peacekeepers with heavy equipment and a helicopter squadron in the Security Zone. By the late 1990s it was apparent that resumption of armed hostilities was unlikely, and in 1998 Russia unilaterally reduced its peacekeeping presence to one battalion (some 400 troops),and withdrew its heavy equipment and the helicopter squadron. Transnistrians Request Likely Russian Policy -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Appeals to the Russian Federation to restore its peacekeeping contingent to its initial size have been an element of Transnistrian leadership policy for some time. However, Tiraspol has become more vocal about this desire following the April 7 unrest in Chisinau. Igor Smirnov also voiced such a desire following the declarations made on September 29 in Brussels and New York by representatives of the Moldovan government concerning the necessity of withdrawing the Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria as quickly as possible. ¶6. (SBU) An Embassy contact in the Moldovan delegation to the JCC told us with certainty that he believed Moscow was using Tiraspol to voice its own desire to deploy extra troops in Transnistria. No side in the JCC can deploy additional peacekeepers without the consent of the other two delegations. Such a decision-making principle makes it impossible for Moscow to enhance its military presence in the region, as Chisinau is unlikely to agree. Comment CHISINAU 00000829 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (C) Though Voronin signed the March 18 declaration approving of the presence of Russian peacekeeping troops, the Russians cannot increase the size of its contingent without Chisinau's approval. We believe that Tiraspol is likely to keep insisting on an increase of the size of the Russian contingent as a means to put pressure on Chisinau. Any attempts in Chisinau to discuss a revision of Moldova's neutral status or any closer cooperation with NATO will likely trigger repeated Transnistrian appeals to Russia to build up its military contingent back to its original size. We do not doubt that the Russians would seek to use the events in Chisinau to their own advantage - Tiraspol's calls to enhance the Russian presence are one way of doing so. CHAUDHRY