MOLDOVA ELDERLY TRAVELERS B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000721

DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/VO/F/P

DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC

POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS

FRANKFURT FOR RCOS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: CVIS, KFRD, CMGT, ASEC, MD

SUBJ: MOLDOVA ELDERLY TRAVELERS B1/B2 VALIDATION

STUDY

REF: 07 BUCHAREST 001336

1. SUMMARY: Embassy Chisinau conducted a

validation study of B1/B2 issuances to applicants

over 60 years of age. Post combined the results

from DHS's Arrival Departure Information System

(ADIS) with follow-up telephone calls. The study

covered 100% of B1/B2 issuances in CY 2008 to

applicants who were at least 60 years of age

within that year. The sample group consisted of

289 applicants. The study showed 5.2% of

travelers over 60 overstayed or adjusted status.

Furthermore, only 2% of travelers over 65

overstayed. END SUMMARY.

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Data Collection and Methodology

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2. Elderly applicants are often seen as possibly

problematic. Potentially of use as long-term

babysitters, and with limited disposable income or

other economic ties to their country of origin,

they are often seen as likely to remain in the

U.S. for extended periods. To evaluate such

assumptions, post looked at all the B1/B2 visa

issuances from January 1 to December 31, 2008, to

any applicant who reached at least the age of 60

years by December 31, 2008.

3. The total sample group was 289 individuals

whose travel patterns were examined with the use

of ADIS and the use of follow up phone calls.

Post looked at the numbers of people who traveled

or did not travel on the visa they were issued,

the length of time it took applicants to travel on

the visa they were issued, and the length of stay.

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Analysis

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4. Of the 289 people issued visas, 3.1% presented

Russian passports, 1% Ukrainian, with the

remainder traveling on Moldovan Passports.

(COMMENT: The absence of Romanian passports in

this population is notable given the large numbers

of Moldovan citizens who hold them. END COMMENT)

About 12% of the sample had traveled to the US

prior to the visa issuance in 2008.

5. Post examined the patterns of visa use for the

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CY 2008 issuances. Thirty-five of the people

issued visas in 2008 (12%) have not used their

issued visa by the time of the study. Of the 254

travelers, 42% traveled within 30 days of

receiving the visa, 70% within two months, 90%

within six months. Almost all traveled within a

year of issue, with only two people waiting for

more than a year to travel.

6. To date, of the 254 travelers, 88% have only

traveled once, 12% have traveled twice, and two

people have gone three times. Over 72% of all

travelers have not spent more than three months in

the United States at any one time. Of those who

traveled, 25 are currently in the U.S., but only

seven of them have overstayed or adjusted status.

7. Fifteen travelers (5.2% of issuances) spent

more than six months in the U.S. (NOTE: one of

the travelers with no departure record was reached

by phone at her Chisinau residence, and after

getting over her surprise at hearing from post,

immediately requested information on potential

future visa issuances. END NOTE) Nine travelers

had overstayed according to ADIS, but had left the

U.S. at the time of the study. Seven people are

assumed still to be in the U.S. Of these, two

people have adjusted status, as has one person not

currently in the U.S. Illegal overstays for this

population amount to 13 people, or 4.5% of

issuances. Today, only 1.7% of the people in the

study sample are in the U.S. illegally.

CHISINAU 00000721 002 OF 002

8. Of those who traveled once, almost 94% were in

the U.S. for less than six months. 38% spent 31

days or less in the US, 22.5% spent between 32 and

62 days there, 12.6% people spent between 63 and

92 days, and 19.8% spent three to six months (93-

182 days) in the U.S. Of the 30 people who

traveled twice, only one overstayed, with trips of

184 and 187 days.

9. Advanced age was not a significant factor in

overstay rates. Only two of the 16 people over 80

overstayed, while the remaining overstays were all

under 70. Overstays over 65 were only 2% of all

issuances for this sample.

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Comment

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10. The low number of overstays in this target

group shows that most applicants issued visas

after the age of 60 (and especially over 65)

continue to have strong ties to Moldova, even if

they do not have a significant amount of

disposable income, or have family members in the

U.S. Apparently family, community, cultural and

habitual ties, as well as those to land or other

real estate, are quite strong for this population.

11. The relatively low number of people who made

multiple use of the visas, and their generally

positive travel history, further demonstrates that

most applicants in the sample did not use a

multiple entry visa to spend the preponderance of

their time in the U.S.

12. The results of this study show that Moldovan

pensioners are only marginally riskier issuances

than their Romanian counterparts (REFTEL),and

that shows that in absolute terms, Moldovan

pensioners are low-risk applicants, especially

those over 65 years of age. This initial

conclusion, however, should be reviewed over a

longer time horizon, and post intends to conduct a

study of longer term visa usage by this population

in the near future.

CHAUDHRY

MOLDOVA ELDERLY TRAVELERS B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY

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