DPM DODON STILL CONSIDERING SPLIT WITH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000714 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD SUBJECT: DPM DODON STILL CONSIDERING SPLIT WITH COMMUNISTS Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Ref (A): Chisinau 643 (B) Chisinau 700 ¶1. (S) Summary: In a September 15 meeting with Ambassador Chaudhry, outgoing First Deputy Prime Minister Dodon spent an hour talking of his current indecision about whether to split with the Communist Party. he claimed that a group of 4-5 MPs could leave with him, including the former Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii. However, Dodon said he was hesitating, and uncertain about timing. He said that he would come to a decision within the next two-three weeks. End Summary. Trying to Decide What to Do - PLDM or PD Make Sense -------------- -------------- - ¶2. (S) In a September 15 meeting with Ambassador Chaudhry, a seemingly tortured Deputy Prime Minister Dodon spent an hour talking of nothing but his indecision about what to do. He kept circling around the question of breaking with the Communist Party (PCRM),as if he was hoping the Ambassador would tell him what to do. Dodon said that at first he thought he could stay put and try to reform the party from the inside, but it now seemed that "the Old Man" (i.e. Voronin) was not ready to give up his grip on the party and thus such reform would not be possible. More precisely, continued Dodon, it was not really Voronin holding tight to the reins of power, but, Vladimir Turcan and others in the inner circle. Dodon, on the other hand would like to reform the PCRM into a modern Social Democratic party. ¶3. (S) Dodon said that he could foresee three possible scenarios for himself: (1) stay in the PCRM and hope for the best; (2) leave politics and go into business; and (3) take a group of friends and form a new faction to ally with Lupu. In the latter scenario, this group would form a centrist party, and would claim that they were the real Communist Party but would call it something else. ¶4. (S) Dodon then acknowledged that possibility of a fourth option, breaking with the PCRM and joining another faction, but questioned which faction would be best for him to join. He mentioned the Liberal Party and noted that at a recent event he was joking with Liberal Party Mayor of Chisinau Dorin Chirtoaca about leaving the Communist Party. The next morning Chirtoaca had called him to ask if he was serious, and proposed that Dodon join the Liberals. Although Dodon thought that the economic policies he supports were liberal policies, he though that either Filat's Liberal Democrats (PLDM) or Lupu's Democratic Party (PD) made more ideological sense for him. A Question of Timing -------------- ¶5. (S) Still uncertain about what to do, but feeling that he should do something, Dodon also wondered when to take action. He said that at first he thought no one in the PCRM would vote for Lupu, but that another possibility also existed, that Voronin would look the other way, and allow eight PCRM MPs to vote. Dodon noted that people were starting to feel that new elections could result in further losses for the PCRM. Dodon said he was still pondering the best timing for making a break with his group, and was thinking of doing it after the Presidential elections, but then acknowledged that his break could be more effective if done before the vote for President. ¶6. (S) Dodon told the Ambassador that within the next two-three weeks he would make a decision about the future -- for himself and his friends. Who Would Join Dodon? Who would Support? -------------- ¶7. (S) Dodon said that he had 4-5 deputies who CHISINAU 00000714 002 OF 002 were ready to leave the PCRM faction with him. He noted that one of these was former Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii. When asked if he was sure, Dodon responded that actually she was the one who had helped put this idea in his head. In response to the Ambassador's question, Dodon said that Gregorie Petrenco was not among the potential defectors, as he was too loyal to Mark Tkaciuk. Dodon stated that he had floated the idea of party reform or parting ways with Mark Tkaciuk who did not like the idea and seemed to be distancing himself from Dodon ever since. ¶8. (S) Dodon noted that he spoke French and said that he recently met with the French Ambassador. Dodon believed that the French would offer him some support. He then asked the Ambassador openly -- if I separate from the PCRM, will I have your support? The Ambassador explained that the USG is supportive of a democratic process and those who believe in it. However, the U.S. does not provide financial support to any political party. Dodon explained that he had funding but what he needed would be training and political support, not financial support. Comment -------------- ¶10. (S) As reported in Refs A and B, for the past few weeks, Dodon has been actively considering the idea of splitting from the PCRM. While he continues to ruminate, he still lacks the resolve necessary to take this dramatic step. If done from strength, he could trigger an avalanche and help change the course of Moldova's political evolution. However, if done prematurely or clumsily, Dodon could find himself labeled a traitor and isolated. Dodon is still sitting on the fence, but politics within the party could shift rapidly in the coming days once the new government is formed. However, if Dodon does decide to take the step, he will have to do it firmly and decisively, without looking back. Dodon's statements seem to confirm what Voronin told the Ambassador in a recent meeting that Lupu is a traitor and thee are others who had been close to PCRM for medals and positions and might jump ship now that we are not in power. CHAUDHRY