DID LUPU GO TO MOSCOW? IF SO, WHY?

S E C R E T CHISINAU 000644 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB /// C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - PARA RENUMBERED/// E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MD SUBJECT: DID LUPU GO TO MOSCOW? IF SO, WHY? Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S) Summary: On August 12 Marian Lupu publicly denied a news item claiming that he had traveled to Moscow the previous day, saying he had been in Budapest. However, in an August 13 meeting, Marian Lupu (strictly protect) confided to the Ambassador that he had indeed been in Moscow. He claimed to have gone for personal family reasons, but that once in Moscow he was "invited" to a meeting with two interlocutors he said he would prefer not to name. In what Lupu described as something akin to a "job interview" or an in-depth political and psychological assessment, Lupu was asked a series of questions to determine his positions on issues such as immunity for Voronin, Moldova's neutrality and Russian-language schools in Moldova. Lupu also told the Ambassador about problems in the coalition, particularly the lack of trust between Filat and Lupu. End Summary. Did Lupu Go to Moscow? He claimed Budapest -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 12, a news item appeared in the local news service, Unimedia, claiming that former Speaker and Democratic Party leader Marian Lupu had traveled to Moscow the previous day (August 11) and showing a picture of him at an airport counter. Contacted by Unimedia, Lupu denied rumors he traveled to Moscow, saying he had been in Budapest. Later that day PLDM leader Vlad Filat told the Ambassador that he had personally asked Lupu whether he went to Moscow, and Lupu had responded that he went to Budapest. Filat appeared visibly concerned, and told the Ambassador that he was worried and did not trust Lupu. ¶3. (C) On the morning of August 13, the Ambassador met with Foreign Minister Andrei Stratan. Stratan discussed post-elections politics, warning that we should be prepared for "a surprising new scenario." He said that Voronin would not give up power and that the Russians would not want him to. Stratan confided that there were discussions already going on between the two sides. When asked about Lupu, Stratan said he believed that Lupu had gone to Budapest and met with the Russians there. However, Stratan suggested that Mark Tkaciuk had been to Moscow on either the 11th or 12th. Lupu Confirms Moscow Trip, Asked Many Questions -------------- -- ¶4. (S) In a highly confidential conversation August 13, Marian Lupu (strictly protect) confided to the Ambassador that he actually had gone to Moscow (he added that he had transited through Budapest, so had told the truth when he said he had been to that city). He claimed to have been in Russia for personal reasons related to his father's health (his father had prostate cancer and was now weaker after an operation in Moscow), but confirmed that once in Moscow he was invited to "a meeting." Lupu would not say who he met with (only that there were two interlocutors),but said it was a two-hour meeting at a hotel, i.e. a somewhat clandestine meeting, rather than an open one in a ministry. ¶5. (S) Lupu said he felt the meeting was either a psychological exam or a detailed interview. He was asked a series of questions about topics such as relations with Romania, his statements about balancing relations between East and West and his opinions about his coalition partners. Lupu said he also was asked about whether he would give immunity to Voronin and immunity to Voronin's family members, to which he had responded that he would. The interlocutors asked Lupu about Russian-language schools in Moldova, and Lupu's thinking on Moldovan neutrality. ¶6. (S) Lupu felt some questions were designed to probe his responses. For example, his interlocutors asked Lupu when he had last met with Acting President Voronin's advisor Mark Tcaciuk, to which he responded late-May or early-June, but he remained puzzled by the question. Lupu said they also asked if he knew why Filat was trying to contact them. As Lupu thought this might be a provocation to test whether Lupu would speak against his coalition partner, he said he had remained neutral and said he had no idea why Filat might be trying to contact them. ¶7. (S) Lupu said that the Russians had asked about the possibility of a coalition with the PCRM. He said they had not told him he should make a coalition, but merely asked. Lupu told the Ambassador that he had responded that coalition talks were going on right now, and thus dodged the question; the Russians never returned to it. Finally the Russians asked him if there was anything they could do, to which Lupu had responded that that they could tell Voronin to give eight PCRM votes in parliament to make sure there was no extended political crisis in Moldova. Lupu said that his interlocutors made no small talk. They launched into their questioning suddenly, asked their questions for two hours, and then stopped. Lupu Concerned about Lack of Trust -------------- ¶8. (C) Turning to Moldovan internal politics, Lupu told the Ambassador that he was troubled by a serious problem within the coalition. Though the group was still moving in the same direction, Lupu was concerned that his coalition partners, particularly Filat did not trust him. Lupu believed that Filat thought he was obsessed with being President, and said he was so sick of it that sometimes he considered just waiting four more years and offering the Presidential position to Filat and volunteering himself to be the Speaker of the Parliament. The Ambassador noted that a coalition has to be built on trust. Though the USG had refrained from becoming a mediator in the negotiations, the Ambassador suggested that the two leaders needed to find a way to build trust or else the success of the coalition could be endangered. ¶9. (C) Lupu said that the lack of trust was so bad that he was concerned Filat was plotting against him, possibly in a scenario involving former Prime Minister Ion Sturza. Lupu believed Filat wanted to get himself elected for Speaker but that if Lupu did not gain the necessary 61 votes in the first round, Filat would propose Sturza for president. ¶10. (S) The Ambassador asked about relations with First Deputy Prime Minister and PCRM MP Igor Dodon. Lupu responded that Dodon was trying to get the Lupu group to join the PCRM in a coalition. Asked whether Lupu would consider that option, he responded most emphatically that at this point he would not. Lupu said that Dodon was still young and was looking for a scenario in which he could promote himself. Comment -------------- ¶11. (S) The Ambassador has developed an excellent working relationship with Lupu, who has been surprisingly open with us about his political concerns. There is press speculation about why Lupu would have gone to Moscow, and innuendo that that the Russians are pushing him to join up in coalition with the PCRM. However, Lupu's own story suggests that this is not the case (as he told it, it appeared that the Russians were trying to assess what it would mean for politics in Moldova if Lupu were to succeed in becoming President). In the meantime, for the coalition to succeed in working together, it will be necessary for Filat and Lupu to move beyond their mistrust for each other and learn to work as part of the same team. CHAUDHRY