HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR THINKS LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHISINAU 000061 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE E.O. 12958: Declassify 01/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PINR MD SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR THINKS LIKELY OPPOSITION VICTORY BODES ILL FOR MOLDOVA Classified by Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry under 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 22 meeting, Hungarian Ambassador to Moldova Gyorgy Varga shared Ambassador Chaudhry's concerns that the Government of Moldova (GOM) was backsliding on media, political, and economic freedoms in the run up to elections. Varga told the Ambassador that President Voronin, in taking anti-democratic measures, was setting the Party of Communists (PCRM) up for a loss, and that probable opposition victory in parliamentary elections would harm Moldova's neutrality and chances for a Transnistria settlement. End summary. ¶2. (C) The opposition, Varga stated , had been keeping its desire for Moldova's NATO accession and unification with Romania quiet, but would come out in favor of both if they won a majority and formed a government after elections (widely predicted for April 5). Those two goals, said Varga, would result in a reversal of Moldova's constitutional provision of neutrality, irritate the Russians mightily, and constitute an abandonment of Transnistria and eventual territorial reunification. Varga rightly noted that unification with Romania would always be at the cost of sinking a possible Transnistrian settlement. ¶3. (C) Varga also told the Ambassador that Russia was trying to be pragmatic, and would welcome a deal in which, for the next ten years, NATO would not invite Georgia or Ukraine to join, in exchange for which Russia, assured of a buffer in its "near abroad," would agree to withdraw troops from Transnistria. Varga pointed out that Russia had been frightened by NATO and EU enlargement to the east, and needed the reassurance. ¶4. (C) Varga stated that on Saturday, January 17, First Deputy Prime Minister Dodon requested from the European Commission and the Czech ambassador representing the EU presidency a donation of USD 1.6 million for heating oil, in case the Russian- Ukrainian gas dispute was not resolved. Varga noted that, if Moldova did not have sufficient float for such a small amount of deficit spending, then the economy must be in a very fragile state. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Varga, unusually for a Hungarian, appears to have a soft spot for Russia--or perhaps is reflecting Hungary's traditional Habsburg inclination to achieve an equilibrium among many competing groups. Both his children studied in Russia, and one works in Moscow for a multinational. It is not clear whether his warning about the consequences of an opposition victory was a message to us from the Russians, or a product of his own understanding of what the Russians want. It is certainly a useful warning that the Russians, as they have in the past, will take sides in Moldova's parliamentary elections. ¶6. (C) We are not as confident as Varga about the prospects of an opposition election victory, given the PCRM's solid 30-35 percent vote base, its experience in forming coalitions, and traditional animosities among opposition leaders. Even if the opposition did manage to cobble together a ruling coalition in the Parliament, it is not certain that so controversial an issue as reunification with Romania (supported by only single-digit percentages in polls here) would find a place on the new government's agenda. CHAUDHRY