MOLDOVA CIVICS 101: WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs

UNCLAS CHISINAU 000603 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MD SUBJECT: MOLDOVA CIVICS 101: WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs ¶1. (SBU) Summary: While there is a great deal of speculation about who might form a government in Moldova following repeat parliamentary elections on July 29, facts, in the form of numbers, remain stubborn things. Acting President Voronin will remain in office until 61 (out of 101) MPs vote to replace him. With 53 seats, the four non- Communist parties do not have the numbers, even though they outnumber the "plurality-minority" Party of Communists, who hold 48. The non-Communists can nominate a Speaker and appoint a cabinet, but the present numbers are a recipe for impasse. End summary. Seats ShiftQBut No Rout of Communists -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The election, while changing the PCRM from a majority of 60 seats to its present 48, was not a rout. The party's popular-vote share dropped only 4.7 percentage points, from 49.5 to 44.8 percent. That loss translated into the larger parliamentary drop because fewer "wasted" votes were available for redistribution. (Note: In July 29 elections, 4.2 percent of the vote went to parties that failed to reach the 5.0 percent threshold; on April 5, 15.2 percent of votes went to the losers. End note.) The three opposition parties that won seats in April held a combined total of 41 seats; in the latest Parliament, they hold 40. The Democratic Party, under the new management of of former Speaker and PCRM defector Marian Lupu, went from no seats in April to 13 in July. That gives the non-PCRM parties a majority of 53 seats. SoQWhat Can 53 MPs Do? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) They can do much of what a parliament does. If the four opposition parties unite in a 53-seat bloc, they can elect a Speaker, adopt and amend laws, dismiss ministers, and return a vote of no confidence against the government. However, until 61 MPs unite around a candidate, no President can be elected, and Voronin will continue in office as Acting President. Since only the President may nominate a Prime Minister, and Parliament must approve the candidate and his or her cabinet with a simple majority vote, we are likely to reach an impasse, as Acting President Voronin makes an unacceptable nomination to the 53 MPs who are not allowed to make any nomination. So, What Happens with an Impasse? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) If the two sides decide to fight over the nomination of a PM, and the process fails three times, the President must dissolve Parliament and call for new elections. It is unclear, as Moldova enters unchartered constitutional waters, how to interpret the constitutional clause that Parliament can be dissolved only once in a year is that once in a calendar year, or does the year start from another date, such as April 5 elections, or from the June 15 dissolution of Parliament? So, Is Moldova Stuck? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Given the present numbers, and the declarations from all opposition parties that they would not join an alliance with the PCRM, Moldova does appear stuck. If eight PCRP deputies defected, and they and the four opposition parties can agree on a candidate, then Moldova will have a president. We will report septel on scenarios in which the human elementQalways a strong factor in the marketplace of Moldovan politicsQmight find away to loose the surly bonds of numbers. CHAUDHRY