OPPOSITION HAS BIG PLANS TO LEAD MOLDOVA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CHISINAU 000595 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM MD SUBJECT: OPPOSITION HAS BIG PLANS TO LEAD MOLDOVA IN NEW DIRECTION -- BUT CAN THEY SUCCEED? Classified by: Ambassador Asif J. Chaudhry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition plans to work within its narrow parliamentary majority of 53 seats to elect the Speaker and then attempt to use their legislative mandate to try to form a government. Although Voronin would continue on as Acting President, with the speaker in place (possibly Filat),the opposition would then plan to flex their muscles and use their parliamentary control to appoint several key new positions, such as Prosecutor General and Chairman of the Constitutional Court. They believe that such parliamentary appointments would send a powerful signal to Voronin. ¶2. (C) Democratic Party (PD) leader Lupu and Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM)leader Filat each told Ambassador that they believe that as a result of such dramatic steps, either Communist Party (PCRM) members would defect to their coalition, or Voronin himself would see the need to cooperate with them and vote together on electing a new President (most likely Lupu). Filat told Ambassador that the opposition leaders planned a July 31 meeting, during which he would propose they sign a written "Charter of Unity." Lupu however, expressed some doubts about the ability of the parties to work together, given the number of egos involved (especially Filat's). End Summary. Filat to lead a United Opposition -------------- ¶3. (C) Immediately following the July 29 repeat Parliamentary elections, as the preliminary results became known, Ambassador Chaudhry met on July 30 with Democratic Party (PC) leader Marian Lupu and Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM)leader Vlad Filat to discuss electoral outcomes. Filat confirmed that the four non-Communist parties who would be represented in the new parliament, PDLM, PL, AMN, and Lupu's PD, had already had contacts among themselves. He said that the four would meet on July 31 in order to decide what to do. Filat said that he would propose that they agree on concrete steps. Rather than vague statements about cooperation, he would propose that they sign a written "Charter of Unity," pledging that they would work together and stay together. (NOTE: In a meeting with Ambassador July 31, Liberal Party leader Ghimpu confirmed that the four party leaders had indeed met and agreed to work together. He said that they would meet again on August 2 to work on the details of their mutual understanding, after which they would sign something. Until they find a solution for the problems of working together, they will not say anything and these meetings will remain a secret from the public. Ghimpu meeting to be reported SEPTEL. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) Filat (on July 30) claimed that Ghimpu had already come to him acknowledging that since Filat had won the strongest showing among the opposition parties (with 18 seats),he should be the leader of the opposition parties. Filat noted to Ambassador that he admired Ghimpu for his stubbornness as a man of his word who had not bent on his promise to oppose the Communists, and hence could be expected to fulfill this pledge of support. This role as recognized "leader" of the opposition troika could be presumed to mean that Filat would be their chosen Speaker of Parliament. Filat confirmed his interest in holding this position. Opposition Vision for Taking Power -------------- ¶5. (C) Filat said that the first step when the new parliament met would be election of the Speaker. Acknowledging his own interest in that position, he went on to explain that once the Speaker was elected, the opposition would propose a series of sweeping personnel changes, using those positions that are under control of the Parliament. Both Lupu and Filat explained to Ambassador that such CHISINAU 00000595 002 OF 003 positions included the Prosecutor General, the Chairman of the Constitutional Court, the head of Teleradio Moldova as well as other posts. While the head of Security Services (SIS) Artur Resetnikov (Voronin's nephew by marriage) was not appointed by the parliament, that body did have the power to remove him. Firing such heads of power organs would shake up the status quo and be a prelude for more sweeping change. ¶6. (C) Lupu told Ambassador that after three or four such personnel changes, this would put pressure on Voronin and send a powerful signal to Voronin that he needed to support the opposition to elect the President. Filat said that he assumed that once these personnel changes took place, there would be members of the PCRM who would leave the party to join them. However Lupu mentioned to Ambassador that Voronin had purposely stacked the PCRM list with members of the Old Guard, who would not easily be pried loose. Filat, on the other hand, was more convinced that a certain number of Communists would indeed desert their party. What would be most important, said Filat, was to keep the legislative agenda under control in such a way that the Communists could not manipulate things. ¶7. (C) The opposition's ultimate scenario was to put together a new government with Filat as Speaker, Lupu as President, and a good solid administrator as Prime Minister. They hoped to create a strong, forward-leaning, modern team capable of truly changing the direction of the country. Acknowledging that the economic situation in the country was very bad now, Filat said that their challenge would be to find an appropriate Prime Minister who could effectively lead the country at a time like this. ¶8. (C) Filat was adamant that "it is time for a change." However, he said that the new coalition would look to the western forces to help them get through the difficult times. He hoped he could count on support from the United States and the European Union in a substantive way that that this fledgling project did not fail as a result of the financial crisis. Lupu Sees Possibility of Cooperation with Communists -------------- ¶9. (C) Although Lupu was on board for Filat's scenario of working with the opposition to elect a speaker, his comments to Ambassador suggest that he had not ruled out the possibility of cooperation with the Communists. He suggested a theoretical possibility of bringing the Communists into the government, but not giving them any position of authority. He was adamant that Voronin must not be allowed to have any of the key positions, either as Speaker, Prime Minister or President, or any power ministries. In this conversation, Lupu demonstrated more anger against Voronin than he had at any prior meeting with Ambassador. ¶10. (C) Lupu shared the vision of getting all four non-Communist parties together. However, he expressed some doubts about their ability to manage the take at hand, demonstrating concerns about the number of egos involved that could get in the way. He was concerned in particular, about Filat's ego, saying that now that he has the largest opposition mandate, he sees himself as the natural opposition leader. ¶11. (C) Lupu also said that he has doubts about some members on his list. Out of the thirteen MPs elected on his slate, there were four he was uncertain about. There remained a possibility that these individuals could give in to Communist pressures and switch sides. Lupuhad mentioned that he had heard from very reliabl sources that Voronin had told one of his truste aides to offer whatever had to be offered to Dicov to win the support of the Democratic Party (ith or without Lupu). This offer could even go o the extent of offering the Presidency to Lupu. If so, the CHISINAU 00000595 003 OF 003 opposition could still lose its parliamentary majority and its ability to select the Speaker. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) At this point the likely outcomes are still very unclear. It is very possible that quietly and democratically, Moldova is already in the process of having its own color revolution. If the opposition succeeds with its big plans, we could see a renovated Moldova on the path to more Western values, including democratic reforms, a more just rule of law, and freedom of the media. However, there are still some concrete obstacles to this scenario for opposition power, and we are somewhat skeptical about the ability of the opposition to successfully implement their big plans. First of all, this scenario depends upon the ability of the four party leaders to work together. Additionally, doubts remain about whether the opposition could win over the necessary PCRM votes to elect a President. Without either several Communist defections or a coalition agreement with the PCRM to elect a President, the country would remain without a new leader and with Voronin as Acting President until new elections were called in 2010. The country would thus continue in protracted leadership crisis. It is most likely that the new parliament will not meet until early September. Thus we anticipate a hot summer period until then filled with bargaining and horse trading, as both the Communists and the opposition parties each seek to win some support away from the other side. It is a high stakes game, with Moldova's future on the line. CHAUDHRY