ELECTING A PRESIDENT ONLY POSSIBLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000589

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MD
SUBJECT: ELECTING A PRESIDENT ONLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH COALITION

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ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) Summary: With 98.3 percent of the vote
counted, it is already clear that Moldova will
have a five-party parliament. With 48 seats
reported thus far out of a total of 101, the Party
of Communists (PCRM) will be unable to elect a
President, or even a Speaker, on its own. It is
still possible that the final result may turn out
to be only 47 seats for the Communists, once the
overseas voting is tallied. Barring a move to
call for a referendum on direct popular election
of the president, installing a president will
require a coalition. The two possible outcomes
would be either a coalition of one or more parties
with PCRM or a destabilizing effort by opposition
leadership to band together and boycott working
with the communists. The four other parties
elected to the parliament include the three that
were in the previous parliament -- Filat's PLDM
(17),Ghimpu's PL (15),Urechean's AMN (8) -Q plus
the Democratic Party now headed by Lupu with 13
seats. Their combined total would be too slim to
elect a president, resulting in a stalemate that
would spark new parliamentary polls in spring

2010. Marian Lupu is the kingmaker Q and a
possible future President. Any scenario involving
PCRM cooperation with the opposition would require
both sides to set aside the vituperation of the
campaign period and the mutual accusations
following the April 7 riots. End Summary.

The Preliminary Results are In
--------------


2. (SBU) Moldovan law requires simple majority of
52 parliamentary votes (one-half plus one) in
order to elect a speaker or approve the
President's nomination of a Prime Minister, but a
wider three-fifths majority of 61 votes is needed
to elect a President. As of July 30, preliminary
results based upon counting of 98.3 percent of the
votes are known; final results of the popular vote
and distribution of seats will be released July

31. The prospective seat allocation for
parliament breaks down as follows:

PCRM 48 (60 in the April 5 Parliament)
AMN 8 (11)
PL 15 (15)
PLDM 17 (15)
PD-Lupu 13 (0)


3. (SBU) Unlike the April 5 elections, in which
the Communists held enough seats to elect a
speaker and a president, in the new parliament,
the Communists alone will not be able to elect
either. The election results would allow the
four non-Communist parties to choose a speaker, if
they worked together, but not to elect a
president. If two attempts by the new parliament
to elect a President were to fail, new elections
would be required. However, since Parliament
cannot be dissolved twice in a 12-month period,
such new polls could not take place until the
spring of 2010.

Coalition with the Communists...
--------------


4. (SBU) The PCRM, in a coalition together with
any of the three largest opposition parties, could
elect both a speaker and a president. The PCRM's
48 seats plus Lupu's 13 add up to exactly 61, so
if Lupu were to agree to work with PCRM, together
they could elect a Speaker and have the "golden
vote" necessary to elect a President. However,
this might still change, as there is a possibility
that the PCRM will have only 47 seats, once the
remaining overseas votes are counted, which would
leave the PCRM plus Lupu one seat short of the
golden vote. Lupu has talked about not making a
bilateral coalition Q so, he might try to win
support from PLDM and AMN for a broader
reconciliation coalition, (and might win such
support if he were the one nominated for
President). The broader coalition would be
necessary should the PCRM have only 47 seats.

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President Voronin has already begun to make public
statements about a broad coalition. However, we
doubt that the PL would be willing to join such a
coalition with the Communists.

Coalition Without the Communists...
--------------


5. (SBU) Alternatively, all of the non-Communist
parties might try to band together. The three
opposition parties who made it into Parliament in
April were PLDM (17),PL (15) and AMN (8),for a
total for 40 seats. If those 40 votes were joined
together with Lupu's 13, that would give 53. So,
if all non-Communist parties were to form an
alliance to work together without the PCRM, with
53 votes they could elect a Speaker but not a
President. Such a coalition would then limp
along with Voronin continuing as Acting President,
with the government only able to last until repeat
elections took place in 2010. It would be a
formula for protracted crisis, as such a
government, while theoretically possible, would be
weak and contentious, vulnerable to inter-party
power struggles and spats, and would be lacking a
head.

...Or an Attempt to Change the System
--------------


6. (SBU) Another possibility is that the
opposition parties might work together, using
their majority, to vote to hold a referendum on
reintroducing direct popular election of the
President. This decision to call for a referendum
would require only a simple majority. If the
population were to approve such a change, Lupu
could be a strong candidate for popular
presidential election.

Comment: No protests anticipated
--------------


7. (SBU) We do not anticipate any violent
protests. Opposition parties have reason to be
pleased with their results. The July 29 elections
changed the non-PCRM parties from a 41-member
combined minority to a 53-member majority. AMN,
which was at risk of not passing the electoral
threshold, can breathe a sigh of relief, while
both PL and PLDM stayed close to their April
results. PD, which has never before passed the
threshold running independent of a bloc, should be
satisfied with the lift provided by its new star
player, Marian Lupu. Absent a reason to protest,
such demonstrations are less likely. We hope that
the energies spent on squabbling after the April
elections will now be devoted to difficult work of
horse-trading and reconciliation needed to provide
a viable government. The party leaders would do
best to engage in constructive dialogue and move
forward to put together a government capable of
implementing the electoral will of the people.

CHAUDRY