POLLING RESULTS SHOW CONCERN,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000587

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT: POLLING RESULTS SHOW CONCERN,
POLARIZATION

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT
ACCORDINGLY

REF: Chisinau 0581


1. (SBU) Summary: Recent polling by the
International Republican Institute (IRI) on the
eve of July 29 repeat parliamentary elections,
shows that Moldovans' concerns are overwhelmingly
economic and that most people believe the country
is headed in the wrong direction. A separate
recent poll by a reputable local organization
shows similar results. Regarding the disputed
events of April 7, IRI respondents blamed
hooligans and, to a lesser degree, opposition
leaders rather than the government or foreign
factions. End Summary.

2. (SBU) The IRI-sponsored Baltic/Gallup poll was
carried out June 20-July 2 2009 with a sample of
1,227 Moldovans. This cable also draws on the
latest edition of the Barometer of Public Opinion
in Moldova, a long-running survey funded by the
Soros Foundation and organized by Moldova's
Institute for Public Policy. This survey covered
1,534 Moldovans in the period June 26-July 10

2009.
Country Seen as Headed in the Wrong Direction
--------------


3. (SBU) Both polls show very clear public unease
with Moldova's current trajectory. The IRI survey
shows a leap since November 2008 from 55 to 66
percent of respondents who believe "things are
headed in the wrong direction." The IPP results
on the same question are almost identical, at 68
percentQa ten-point rise since March 2009. In a
series of questions examining what Moldovans see
as the main problems facing the country and their
families, answers such as "poverty," "low incomes"
"unemployment" and "high prices" dominated
responses. 25 percent responding to the IPP poll
said that remittances from family members abroad
had decreased, and 72 percent said the same about
their overall household income
Who was to blame for April 7?
--------------


4. (SBU) In a group of results which underscore
Moldova's polarization on political topics, the
IRI poll included questions on the violent
demonstrations of April 7, which extensively
damaged the Parliament and presidential offices.
Respondents placed most blame on "hooligans who
took advantage of the situation," with the second
and third choices (a virtual tie) being
"parliamentary opposition parties trying to stage
a coup" and "opposition parties generally for
political purposes." Two variants blaming the
governing PCRM came next, followed by "factions
from Romania" and, dead last, "factions from
Russia." In a related item, 38 percent said that
"the damage to the Parliament/presidential
buildings on April 7" was an important factor in
deciding their vote on July 29. This was much
lower than the economy, which came in at 84
percent, but nonetheless shows the issue remains
on the minds of some. In a related question,
IRI's question "do you think the [April]
parliamentary elections were free and fair?"
produced a tie, with 41 percent saying "yes" and
an equal number "no." IPP results were similar on
this question.
Worsened mood toward Romania
--------------

5. (SBU) IRI also asked about international
relations; increased perception of problems with
Romania formed the most noteworthy shift. In
IRI's previous poll in November 2008, 49 percent
of respondents said relations with Romania were
good; by June 2009, that number had plummeted to
19 percent, with 57 percent calling them bad, up
from 25 percent in November. In a related
question, in November, 53 percent of those
surveyed saw Romania as a partner and 18 percent
as a threat. In June "partner" had dropped to 36
percent and "threat" had risen to 26 percent, the
highest score in a category of potential foreign
dangers. On the same question, Russia scored

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highest in the "partner" category in both polls
Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The numbers on the economy and the
direction of the country should frighten
incumbents, including Acting President Voronin and
the PCRM. But opposition parties may not be able
to capitalize on this for several reasons. First,
their campaigns have been largely negative,
focused on bashing Voronin rather than offering
serious platforms and solutions. In addition, the
three main opposition parties are governing much
of Moldova at local levels, including Chisinau,
and public discontent with the status quo may
extend to them as well as to PCRM. The real
beneficiary could be former Speaker Marian Lupu,
seen as one of the cleanest and most competent
leaders of the PCRM and who left that party in
June to run as a new figure in the opposition.
Chaudhry