POLLING RESULTS SHOW CONCERN,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000587 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD SUBJECT: POLLING RESULTS SHOW CONCERN, POLARIZATION SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY REF: Chisinau 0581 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Recent polling by the International Republican Institute (IRI) on the eve of July 29 repeat parliamentary elections, shows that Moldovans' concerns are overwhelmingly economic and that most people believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. A separate recent poll by a reputable local organization shows similar results. Regarding the disputed events of April 7, IRI respondents blamed hooligans and, to a lesser degree, opposition leaders rather than the government or foreign factions. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The IRI-sponsored Baltic/Gallup poll was carried out June 20-July 2 2009 with a sample of 1,227 Moldovans. This cable also draws on the latest edition of the Barometer of Public Opinion in Moldova, a long-running survey funded by the Soros Foundation and organized by Moldova's Institute for Public Policy. This survey covered 1,534 Moldovans in the period June 26-July 10 ¶2009. Country Seen as Headed in the Wrong Direction -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Both polls show very clear public unease with Moldova's current trajectory. The IRI survey shows a leap since November 2008 from 55 to 66 percent of respondents who believe "things are headed in the wrong direction." The IPP results on the same question are almost identical, at 68 percentQa ten-point rise since March 2009. In a series of questions examining what Moldovans see as the main problems facing the country and their families, answers such as "poverty," "low incomes" "unemployment" and "high prices" dominated responses. 25 percent responding to the IPP poll said that remittances from family members abroad had decreased, and 72 percent said the same about their overall household income Who was to blame for April 7? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In a group of results which underscore Moldova's polarization on political topics, the IRI poll included questions on the violent demonstrations of April 7, which extensively damaged the Parliament and presidential offices. Respondents placed most blame on "hooligans who took advantage of the situation," with the second and third choices (a virtual tie) being "parliamentary opposition parties trying to stage a coup" and "opposition parties generally for political purposes." Two variants blaming the governing PCRM came next, followed by "factions from Romania" and, dead last, "factions from Russia." In a related item, 38 percent said that "the damage to the Parliament/presidential buildings on April 7" was an important factor in deciding their vote on July 29. This was much lower than the economy, which came in at 84 percent, but nonetheless shows the issue remains on the minds of some. In a related question, IRI's question "do you think the [April] parliamentary elections were free and fair?" produced a tie, with 41 percent saying "yes" and an equal number "no." IPP results were similar on this question. Worsened mood toward Romania -------------- ¶5. (SBU) IRI also asked about international relations; increased perception of problems with Romania formed the most noteworthy shift. In IRI's previous poll in November 2008, 49 percent of respondents said relations with Romania were good; by June 2009, that number had plummeted to 19 percent, with 57 percent calling them bad, up from 25 percent in November. In a related question, in November, 53 percent of those surveyed saw Romania as a partner and 18 percent as a threat. In June "partner" had dropped to 36 percent and "threat" had risen to 26 percent, the highest score in a category of potential foreign dangers. On the same question, Russia scored CHISINAU 00000587 002 OF 002 highest in the "partner" category in both polls Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The numbers on the economy and the direction of the country should frighten incumbents, including Acting President Voronin and the PCRM. But opposition parties may not be able to capitalize on this for several reasons. First, their campaigns have been largely negative, focused on bashing Voronin rather than offering serious platforms and solutions. In addition, the three main opposition parties are governing much of Moldova at local levels, including Chisinau, and public discontent with the status quo may extend to them as well as to PCRM. The real beneficiary could be former Speaker Marian Lupu, seen as one of the cleanest and most competent leaders of the PCRM and who left that party in June to run as a new figure in the opposition. Chaudhry