MOLDOVA FACING CHALLENGES TO INSTALLING A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000302

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA FACING CHALLENGES TO INSTALLING A
NEW GOVERNMENT Q April 13

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect
Accordingly.


1. (SBU) Summary: With the immediate threat of
street violence diminished, Moldova continues to
face a political crisis which will preserve a state
of uncertainty until the vote recount is finished,
the Parliament meets and a new President and
Cabinet is put in place. Parliament faces
significant obstacles even before the selection of
a new President. A temporary location must be
found for the body to hold its plenary session.
Once the Parliament convenes, the lack of three-
fifths majority will make it difficult for the
Party of Communists (PCRM) to elect its candidate
for President. The extreme political polarization
resulting from the demonstrations and violence will
make it difficult for PCRM and opposition to
cooperate. If a compromise presidential candidate
is not selected within three tries, repeat
elections will be necessary. Meanwhile, in
Tiraspol the Transnistrian authorities are pointing
to the events as proof of why they cannot reach a
settlement with Moldova. End Summary.

The New Parliament Faces Extreme Challenges
--------------


2. (SBU) In a major concession to opposition
demands, President Voronin has ordered a recount
and examination of voter lists. This will delay
for some days the ability of the newly-elected
parliament to convene. With the parliament
building in need of massive repair, the legislative
body will have to find another location for its
inaugural sessions. A parliamentary session could
be held in the Presidency, where previous such
meetings occurred, or in some other government
building. Another obstacle to reestablishing the
parliament's full functionality will be locating
office space and computers for Members of
Parliament (MPs) and their staff so that real work
could recommence. With much of the official
archives destroyed in the fires that engulfed the
bottom floors of the Parliament, we presume that
most original copies of legislation were burned.
According to Moldovan law, there must be originals
of the bills to solve discrepancies between
electronic versions.


3. (SBU) The next task for the parliament will be
the election of a Speaker. The PCRM has enough
votes to elect the Speaker of its choice, as 52 out
of 101 are needed, and the party earned 60 seats.
The party could take this opportunity to make a
conciliatory move toward the opposition MPs and
offer a candidate who would appease, rather than
ostracize, the opposition. There have been
repeated suggestions that Voronin himself might be
interested in this position, but, it is too early
to say.


4. (SBU) The selection of a new president will be
the biggest challenge for the new parliament.
First, there is an internal process within the PCRM
to determine who they will nominate. With 60
seats under PCRM control and 61 seats needed, this
process will reveal the strength of opposition
conviction, or Voronin's success in persuading one
opposition parliamentarian to join his ranks. As
the opposition as whole will not support a PCRM
candidate, the task of gaining one additional vote
will likely be done very privately in meetings with
individual MPs. Cynical observers in Chisinau
speak of offers of dachas, large sums of cash, or
high-ranking future post to help sway the one
essential parliamentarian. The consistently-cited
proof that even radical anti-Communists can be
bought is the case of Iurie Rosca, once the young,
flaming anti-Communist leader of the Popular Front,
and now the Deputy Speaker of Parliament.

The Opposition is Weak but Still a Force
--------------


5. (SBU) The opposition's chance to ride the wave
of popular support after questionable elections is
waning. To the extent that their names have been

CHISINAU 00000302 002 OF 002


linked with the violence, a drop in popularity
resulted. The degree of leadership among the
three, and their chances to present a unified
position in parliament, is still questionable.
The opposition failed to jointly take advantage of
the momentum of last week's demonstrations on the
main square, though they successfully demonstrated
strength and organizational skills in the
demonstration on Sunday April 12. By gathering a
large crowd and maintaining order, the opposition
showed that they have support and are capable of
peaceful demonstration. Their focus on the theme
of human rights for the detainees and Voronin's
"reign of terror" gives some moral high ground and
captures the national revulsion at use of excessive
force against the detainees.

Voronin's Search for Culprits
--------------


6. (SBU) Voronin has not yet finished his search
for those responsible for last week's violent
protests. On April 13, Voronin gathered a group of
representatives from the Supreme Security Council,
the Prosecutor General, Interior Ministry, Security
and Intelligence Service, and the Justice Ministry
to hear reports on the violent demonstrations that
took place early last week. Voronin said that he
still intended to identify the organizers and those
active in starting the violent street riots. He
emphasized that those responsible were attempting
to thwart Moldovan democratic development and
efforts at European integration.

Transnistria Reacts to Promote its Own Independence
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) The Transnistrian reaction was prompt and
predictable. They made an initial request to
Russia to increase the size of its peacekeeping
force from 400 to 2,700 and add a helicopter unit.
Since then, several official statements have hit on
the key political themes: In official statements
and press interviews "Foreign Minister" Yastrebchak
and his Deputy Simonenko have described the events
as pro-Romanian and anti-Russian and stressed that
reintegration with Moldova will never happen. The
Transnistrians have suggested that sooner or later
Moldova will unite with Romania. Simonenko also
referred to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's
recent statement that in case Moldova loses its
identity, Transnistrians will have the right to
choose their own future. The Moldovan election and
Voronin's allegations of Romanian involvement have
given "President" Smirnov more ammunition against
reintegration and further diminished chances for
settlement. Nonetheless, the sides agreed at the
recent 2-plus-1 meeting to hold 5-plus-2 talks
before the end of June. It remains to be seen
whether the group will indeed convene by this date.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Post-electoral instability and political
uncertainty will remain a reality until the new
government is in place, but the chances of renewed
street violence are now slim, though continued
demonstrations cannot be ruled out should the
crisis continue for weeks without resolution.
Though there is general revulsion about the reports
of use of torture against the student detainees,
the GOM has successfully reasserted its control.
The accusations and counter-accusations have
hardened positions, which will make cooperation in
the parliament difficult, once the legislative body
actually convenes. The Transnistrians are taking
advantage of the situation to harden their position
and reassert their right to be recognized as an
independent entity.

CHAUDHRY