MOLDOVA FACING CHALLENGES TO INSTALLING A

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000302 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MD SUBJECT: MOLDOVA FACING CHALLENGES TO INSTALLING A NEW GOVERNMENT Q April 13 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With the immediate threat of street violence diminished, Moldova continues to face a political crisis which will preserve a state of uncertainty until the vote recount is finished, the Parliament meets and a new President and Cabinet is put in place. Parliament faces significant obstacles even before the selection of a new President. A temporary location must be found for the body to hold its plenary session. Once the Parliament convenes, the lack of three- fifths majority will make it difficult for the Party of Communists (PCRM) to elect its candidate for President. The extreme political polarization resulting from the demonstrations and violence will make it difficult for PCRM and opposition to cooperate. If a compromise presidential candidate is not selected within three tries, repeat elections will be necessary. Meanwhile, in Tiraspol the Transnistrian authorities are pointing to the events as proof of why they cannot reach a settlement with Moldova. End Summary. The New Parliament Faces Extreme Challenges -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a major concession to opposition demands, President Voronin has ordered a recount and examination of voter lists. This will delay for some days the ability of the newly-elected parliament to convene. With the parliament building in need of massive repair, the legislative body will have to find another location for its inaugural sessions. A parliamentary session could be held in the Presidency, where previous such meetings occurred, or in some other government building. Another obstacle to reestablishing the parliament's full functionality will be locating office space and computers for Members of Parliament (MPs) and their staff so that real work could recommence. With much of the official archives destroyed in the fires that engulfed the bottom floors of the Parliament, we presume that most original copies of legislation were burned. According to Moldovan law, there must be originals of the bills to solve discrepancies between electronic versions. ¶3. (SBU) The next task for the parliament will be the election of a Speaker. The PCRM has enough votes to elect the Speaker of its choice, as 52 out �A;of 101 are needed, and the party earned 60 seats. The party could take this opportunity to make a conciliatory move toward the opposition MPs and offer a candidate who would appease, rather than ostracize, the opposition. There have been repeated suggestions that Voronin himself might be interested in this position, but, it is too early to say. ¶4. (SBU) The selection of a new president will be the biggest challenge for the new parliament. First, there is an internal process within the PCRM to determine who they will nominate. With 60 seats under PCRM control and 61 seats needed, this process will reveal the strength of opposition conviction, or Voronin's success in persuading one opposition parliamentarian to join his ranks. As the opposition as whole will not support a PCRM candidate, the task of gaining one additional vote will likely be done very privately in meetings with individual MPs. Cynical observers in Chisinau speak of offers of dachas, large sums of cash, or high-ranking future post to help sway the one essential parliamentarian. The consistently-cited proof that even radical anti-Communists can be bought is the case of Iurie Rosca, once the young, flaming anti-Communist leader of the Popular Front, and now the Deputy Speaker of Parliament. The Opposition is Weak but Still a Force -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The opposition's chance to ride the wave of popular support after questionable elections is waning. To the extent that their names have been CHISINAU 00000302 002 OF 002 linked with the violence, a drop in popularity resulted. The degree of leadership among the three, and their chances to present a unified position in parliament, is still questionable. The opposition failed to jointly take advantage of the momentum of last week's demonstrations on the main square, though they successfully demonstrated strength and organizational skills in the demonstration on Sunday April 12. By gathering a large crowd and maintaining order, the opposition showed that they have support and are capable of peaceful demonstration. Their focus on the theme of human rights for the detainees and Voronin's "reign of terror" gives some moral high ground and captures the national revulsion at use of excessive force against the detainees. Voronin's Search for Culprits -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Voronin has not yet finished his search for those responsible for last week's violent protests. On April 13, Voronin gathered a group of representatives from the Supreme Security Council, the Prosecutor General, Interior Ministry, Security and Intelligence Service, and the Justice Ministry to hear reports on the violent demonstrations that took place early last week. Voronin said that he still intended to identify the organizers and those active in starting the violent street riots. He emphasized that those responsible were attempting to thwart Moldovan democratic development and efforts at European integration. Transnistria Reacts to Promote its Own Independence -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Transnistrian reaction was prompt and predictable. They made an initial request to Russia to increase the size of its peacekeeping force from 400 to 2,700 and add a helicopter unit. Since then, several official statements have hit on the key political themes: In official statements and press interviews "Foreign Minister" Yastrebchak and his Deputy Simonenko have described the events as pro-Romanian and anti-Russian and stressed that reintegration with Moldova will never happen. The Transnistrians have suggested that sooner or later Moldova will unite with Romania. Simonenko also referred to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's recent statement that in case Moldova loses its identity, Transnistrians will have the right to choose their own future. The Moldovan election and Voronin's allegations of Romanian involvement have given "President" Smirnov more ammunition against reintegration and further diminished chances for settlement. Nonetheless, the sides agreed at the recent 2-plus-1 meeting to hold 5-plus-2 talks before the end of June. It remains to be seen whether the group will indeed convene by this date. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Post-electoral instability and political uncertainty will remain a reality until the new government is in place, but the chances of renewed street violence are now slim, though continued demonstrations cannot be ruled out should the crisis continue for weeks without resolution. Though there is general revulsion about the reports of use of torture against the student detainees, the GOM has successfully reasserted its control. The accusations and counter-accusations have hardened positions, which will make cooperation in the parliament difficult, once the legislative body actually convenes. The Transnistrians are taking advantage of the situation to harden their position and reassert their right to be recognized as an independent entity. CHAUDHRY