Post Meets Disaffected Politicians in All

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CHISINAU 000273 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL MD SUBJECT: Post Meets Disaffected Politicians in All 32 Districts of Moldova Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly. REF: Chisinau 268 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to the April 5 parliamentary elections in Moldova, Pol/Econ officers visited all 32 raions to meet members of political parties and to assess the overall conduct of the campaign. The political parties all reported that they had been actively engaged in reaching out to voters. We sensed tremendous frustration with the ruling party at the raion level and the Party of Communists (PCRM)- controlled central government. Opposition interlocutors attacked pervasive corruption, misuse of administrative resources, and intimidation tactics used by those in power especially the police and fiscal-inspection powers controlled by the central government. They also reported that the electorate appeared confused and intimidated. While many felt the results would be too close to call, some of those we spoke to expected that anti-PCRM parties, combined, would win a greater number of seats than the PCRM in Parliament after April 5. End Summary. Methodology -------------- ¶2. (U) To standardize our research, we used the same set of questions in each raion visit: what is distinctive about this raion? How is the campaign going? What problems have occurred? What methods are you using to reach voters? What specific effects of the global economic crisis are you seeing? What is your prognosis for the outcome of the elections? Recovering from the Soviet Hangover -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Moldova is emerging from the shadow of its Soviet past, and while it is not a fully democratized country, it is not an authoritarian state either. (Note: The accusations we recorded are impossible to verify, but the numbers and consistency of the accusations countrywide appear to enhance their validity. End note). People fear law-enforcement authorities, whose presence at campaign rallies serves as a reminder of the government's watchful eye. Authorities also have been known to conduct drawn-out administrative checks on businesses and make "invitations" to police stations to discuss matters. Public workersQmostly doctors, teachers, professors, and inspectorsQare told that they must attend PCRM rallies and meetings if they want to keep their jobs. State officials, including Members of Parliament and high Government of Moldova officials, use state resources, such as official cell phones and cars, to support the PCRM campaign. ¶4. (SBU) On the positive side of the ledger, opposition parties have been actively holding rallies and meetings, talking with voters, and spreading their messages door-to-door. They have been putting up their campaign posters and billboards in cities and villages, and openly criticizing authority. Some expect to land seats in the parliament. Parties Face Campaign Limitations -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In almost every raion, participants complained about the lack of space for their partyQs posters, and about other parties putting posters on top of theirs. According to the regulations, campaign posters are only permitted on designated placard frames that are often too small to enable all parties to hang a poster. Party activists therefore feel forced, or provoked, to place their posters in illegal places such as telephone poles, and court police responses with a certain sense of righteousness. CHISINAU 00000273 002 OF 004 ¶6. (SBU) Some party members we met spoke of difficulties in conducting their campaigns, both in their ability to hold meetings and in getting their message out. The PCRM has gone to great lengths to hamper the opposition parties' ability to campaign through tactics that border on the quasi-legal: denying permission to use public buildings such as schools for campaign meetings; distributing "aid" in the form of sugar, firewood, and oil; and indirectly threatening opposition members with job loss. There have only been a few cases of truly illegal behavior, and the PCRM has been careful to limit these incidents. The most severe case we heard involved one raion PPCD party member's brother, who was brutally beaten. (Note: Again, we have no empirical evidence to back up such charges. End note.) Local police reportedly failed to respond. A criminal case was opened. Four different prosecutors in succession had been assigned to and then taken off the case. We were made aware of only a few cases where violence was used, but even one or two known instances could be effective in intimidating voters and preventing them from lodging formal complaints with the Central Election Commission (CEC). ¶7. (SBU) The ruling party in many of the raions has effectively impeded the opposition parties' access to voters. Numerous party representatives throughout the country expressed frustration at the obstacles they faced in educating voters. Some complained that people were not attending opposition-sponsored rallies and meetings, though it was not clear if this was because of fear of the authorities or ineffective outreach. And because of parties' limited access to the media (especially national broadcast media from which most voters get their information) and the prohibitively high cost of TV air time, door-to- door campaigning has been the common way to reach voters in all of the raions. We heard overwhelmingly that parties had to compete for the extremely limited space on official billboards. Furthermore, party representatives in some raions criticized the ruling party for preventing free access to public buildings to use for campaign meetings leaving them with the only alternative of congregating outdoors which, in winter, reduced attendance. Where opposition parties such as the Our Moldova AllianceQAMNQwere in charge of villages and raions, activists lodged similar charges against AMN authorities. In other raions, such as Causeni and Soroca, where a high level of political maturity and inter-party cooperation are evident, party members noted that they had been able to hold their meetings in schools after the school day was over. Some parties chose to use private facilities for their meetings with voters, such as a restaurant or other hall. ¶8. (SBU) The most blatant incidents came up in raions where people were most aware of their democratic rights and exercised their freedom of expression. In these areas, such as the PCRM- controlled Balti, right-bank Moldova's second largest city, the Ministry of Interior and security services have allegedly worked alongside local police to harass and intimidate voters and party members. In several cases, parties reported incidents of harassment by law enforcement of the business sector. Several raions reported that the ruling party had targeted businessmen, many of whom were active opposition party members, and created legal and financial headaches for the businesses. The numbers of random audits have increased substantially in recent months, and tax authorities visit some businesses two to three times in one month. ¶9. (SBU) Some of the criticisms we heard against the ruling party seemed petty, leaving the impression that certain opposition members were complainers, not doers. For example, some opposition party representatives complained that their party was not allowed to hold meetings in schools. They then admitted that they had not even bothered to ask for permission to hold such a meeting, as they were sure it would have been CHISINAU 00000273 003 OF 004 denied. Other party reps sitting at the same table reported they had no problem using the schools. Generally, in most raions, the opposition has been able to stage unimpeded rallies and meetings with voters, and to run paid advertisements in the press. ¶10. (SBU) On a positive note, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has been responsive to our requests for greater transparency. We were initially concerned that results would not be posted at each district election commission before the district sent vote totals to the CEC, leaving open the possibility for vote rigging. The CEC has agreed to make the tallying of the results transparent at all levels of vote counting, from the precinct to the district to the national level. Expected Economic Crisis on Hold for Now -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Across the board, in every raion, participants in our meetings described their raion in terms of the high number of working-age population who had left the country, the lack of jobs at home, and the grinding poverty. However, the economy is likely to have little effect on how people vote. Voters were frustrated with the level of poverty, corruption and lack of jobs, and even though many blamed the Party of Communists' poor governance, they are apathetic and feel helpless in their ability to affect political change, not to mention the fear of doing so. ¶12. (SBU) Almost everyone provided anecdotal or statistical evidence of the negative effects of the global economic crisis, usually mentioning discouraged migrants who have returned after losing jobs, layoffs in local companies, and low prices for agricultural produce. The more cynical noted that, because Moldova has no economy to speak of, the damage would be relatively minor. The raions' party representatives said each raion was feeling the effects of the economic crisis as exhibited primarily by a return of migrants, mostly from Russia, though also from Europe. Remittances are down, and many local businesses are feeling the pinch. All aspects of the local economy have been hard hit, and most people think the situation will get worse before it gets better. ¶13. (SBU) Our interlocutors' predictions were more hopeful and positive than their accounts of the campaign. The general consensus was that four parties would certainly make the six percent threshold, with the following estimated results: PCRM (30 percent plus or minus five),and the Liberal Party, Liberal Democratic Party, and AMN somewhere in the low teens. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Many people nationwide are disenchanted with the PCRM. They realize that, with a deteriorating economy, loss of jobs, ongoing emigration of Moldovans and increasingly unchecked executive-branch power, the PCRM is not the agent that will bring needed changed. The PCRM, though, is making the case that stability is what Moldova needs. Campaign ads feature a young woman with her infant and the slogan "I am voting for stability." The PCRM is covering its rhetorical bets with other posters touting "Change for the Better." ¶15. (SBU) A change in governance may bring an improvement: a stronger judiciary, legislature and media to check the formidable power of the executive; more rule of law; hope that younger leaders will modernize Moldova more quickly; and less economic gangsterism. On the other hand, a change in ruling party(ies) may bring to power a weak, ineffectual opposition coalition that gets little done. These elections are important. CHISINAU 00000273 004 OF 004 Chaudhry