JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE DRIVES ETHNIC KAREN INTO THAILAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000076 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/8/2019 TAGS: PREL PREF MOPS TH BM SUBJECT: JUNTA-LED OFFENSIVE DRIVES ETHNIC KAREN INTO THAILAND CHIANG MAI 00000076 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary and Comment -------------- ¶1. (C) An offensive launched by the Burma Army in early June against the anti-regime Karen National Union (KNU) has driven at least 3,000 ethnic Karen across the border into Thailand. The attack, led by the Burma Army and the pro-junta Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA, a KNU rival),is reportedly flagging. However, the resulting exodus of Karen is believed to be the largest since 1997. Thai authorities are providing temporary shelter, seeking assistance from NGOs, and have provided access to UNHCR. Thai officials have assured the displaced Karen that they may stay in Thailand until the situation across the border is safe. This suggests the RTG wishes to keep open the option of returning them to Burma rather than integrating them into the existing 135,000-plus Burmese refugee population. While the RTG has generally not/not forced refugees who have fled fighting to return to Burma, the large number this time combined with crowded conditions in Thailand's existing refugee camps may be pressuring Bangkok to consider alternatives. ¶2. (C) Comment: KNU sources publicly, and Thai military sources privately, say the offensive appears to be aimed at pressuring the KNU and eliminating its remaining bases in Burma to pave the way for implementing a rumored Burmese plan to create a new border defense force that would integrate armed ethnic cease-fire groups (like the DKBA) under the Burma Army's command. DKBA leaders are believed to be split over whether to sign up, and have reportedly engaged in secret talks about possibly rejoining the KNU. The latest offensive may reflect a regime tactic to force the DKBA's hand against the KNU and toward the rumored border force. Meanwhile, the new influx of ethnic Karen into Thailand presents resource challenges both to the host Thais and to already-stretched NGOs. End Summary and Comment. -------------- -------------- Junta-led Offensive Against Karen Bogs Down . . . -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) An offensive launched by the Burma Army in early June against the anti-regime Karen National Union (KNU) has driven at least 3,000 ethnic Karen across the border into Thailand, according to press reports, NGOs, and RTG sources. (Note: The Karen Refugee Committee reports a figure of 6,800, but UNHCR sources believe the number is lower). The attacks, in eastern Burma's Karen State, began on June 1, led by the Burma Army and the pro-junta Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). The DKBA split several years ago from the KNU, which has fought against Burma's military regime for over 50 years. ¶4. (C) Our contacts in the Royal Thai Army (RTA) and Thai National Intelligence Agency (NIA) see the offensive as an attempt to eliminate the remaining base inside Burma of the KNU's armed wing - the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). Militarily, however, the attackers have not achieved their objective due to hindrances including mountainous and heavily mined terrain, as well as inclement rainy season weather. As a result, the attacking ground troops have made little progress in advancing toward the target KNLA base, resorting instead to long-range mortar shelling. The mortars have inflicted neither casualties nor substantial damage on the KNLA, whose counterattacks have reportedly killed a half-dozen of the 600-troop Burma Army/DKBA force. Our RTA contact predicts the attacking force will pull back in the next few days, given the terrain and climate obstacles. Moreover, re-supply logistics are problematic since most local villagers, typically forcibly recruited as porters, have fled to Thailand. -------------- -------------- CHIANG MAI 00000076 002.2 OF 002 . . . But Drives Thouands of Ethnic Karen into Thailand -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Nearly a week of fighting, however, has driven at least 3,000 ethnic Karen to seek refuge across the border in Thailand (Tak province) - reportedly the largest such exodus since 1997, when a large Burma Army offensive in Karen State forced tens of thousands of ethnic Karen into Thailand. Our RTA and NIA sources report that about 1,300 of this group had been residing in Burma's Ler Per Her internally displaced persons (IDP) camp, which is close to the targeted KNLA base. The balance fled from nearby villages inside Burma. Thai authorities have provided temporary shelter at schools and temples to all. The IDP group is being housed at Nong Bua village, and the others at Mae Salit village. Both are in Tak province's Tha Song Yang district. ¶6. (C) The RTA Third Area Commander, who has responsibility for most of Thai-Burma border, visited the district where the fleeing Karen are being sheltered on June 5. During his visit, Thai authorities reportedly assured the displaced Karen that they would be able to stay in Thailand until the situation across the border was safe. ¶7. (C) Comment: This implies the RTG is keeping open the option of returning the 3,000-plus Karen to Burma, rather than integrating them into existing refugee camps in Tak province, the largest of which is the Mae La camp, about 25 miles south of Tha Song Yang district. While the RTG - currently host to over 135,000 Burmese refugees - has generally not/not forced refugees who have fled fighting to return to Burma, the large number this time combined with crowded conditions in Thailand's existing refugee camps may be pressuring Bangkok to consider alternatives. While we cannot predict what the RTG will decide in this case, a possible influential factor will be the stressed state of the Mae La camp, which faces overcrowding and food shortages. Other refugee camps could be considered, but are much farther away. End Comment. -------------- NGOs Look to Assist -------------- ¶8. (SBU) NGOs on the Thai side, such as the Thai Burma Border Consortium, Solidarites Thailand, and Partners Relief and Development, are taking steps to assist the displaced Karen. Also, UNHCR reports that Thai authorities have given it access to them. These groups are taking a census of the new arrivals, conducting needs assessments, and beginning to provide basic necessities such as food, medicine, clothing, and plastic sheeting. Local authorities have reportedly asked for assistance in constructing emergency latrines. ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Rangoon, and with Embassy Bangkok Refugee Coordinator, who is currently in Tak Province. MORROW