BY-ELECTIONS, REDS AND MIGRANTS TAKE CENTER STAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000024 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KJUS KDEM SMIG ELAB ASEC TH BM SUBJECT: BY-ELECTIONS, REDS AND MIGRANTS TAKE CENTER STAGE REF: A. CHIANG MAI 18 (TOUGHER TIMES) ¶B. CHIANG MAI 10 (PRO-THAKSIN VOTE DROPS) CHIANG MAI 00000024 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary and Comment -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The past few days have seen a flurry of political activity in Chiang Mai, kicking off with a protest by pro-Thaksin redshirts on February 8. Separately, the Election Commission certified the results of January by-elections in two Northern provinces, and election officials here told us more by-elections are likely. Lastly, the February 7 rape and murder of a university student, allegedly by two Burmese migrant workers, has sparked a police crackdown on migrant workers in Chiang Mai. ¶2. (SBU) Comment: The fact that the pro-Thaksin Rak Chiang Mai 51 (RCM51) called on family members of police officers and redshirt supporters from other provinces to join its most recent protest indicates the number of the group's hard-core members may indeed be on the decline. An apparent split between RCM51 and other redshirt supporters in Chiang Mai also does not bode well for the redshirts in former PM Thaksin's home province to present a united front in their efforts to formally put Thaksin and the Puea Thai Party front and center on Thailand's political stage. End Summary and Comment. -------------- -------------- -------------- More By-Elections Likely; January Results Certified -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Chiang Mai potentially faces four by-elections in the near future, each involving a seat previously won by politicians allied with fugitive former Prime Minister Thakskin Shinawatra. Chiang Mai election officials told us on February 10 they have recommended that the daughter of former Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat be disqualified ("red-carded") for buying votes during her victorious campaign in the 2007 Parliamentary elections. That recommendation has already been forwarded to the national Election Commission, which - if it accepts the findings (an announcement is expected soon) -- will send the case to the Supreme Court's Election Division for a final decision. Separately, the cases of the son of former Justice Minister 
Somphong Amornwiwat, whose victory in the 2007 elections was invalidated ("yellow-carded"),and another Chiang Mai MP who was disqualified, are making their way through the courts. The court has already accepted the cases of these two MPs, resulting in their suspension, but has yet to decide whether to accept a third disqualification case that involves the elected provincial council executive. ¶4. (U) In an unrelated development, the press reported on February 11 that the national Election Commission has certified the results of six races contested in the January 11, 2009 by-elections, including two in the northern provinces of Lamphun and Lampang (Ref B). Both were considered Thaksin strongholds, but the Lamphun seat was grabbed by the Democrat Party, which leads the current governing coalition. -------------- -------------- Reds to Police: You're Not Welcome -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On February 8, pro-Thaksin community organization Rak Chiang Mai 51 led approximately 1,000 redshirted pro-Thaksin supporters in a protest near the Chiang Mai Governor's residence, disrupting traffic and impeding access to Chiang Mai's flower festival, which was ongoing at the time. The group voiced its strong opposition to recently-announced police reshuffles, in which several provincial and regional police commanders considered sympathetic to Thaksin and the redshirts were reassigned to inactive posts. Their replacements are seen as favoring the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The protestors threatened to physically prevent the new Police Region 5 Commissioner, who they believe has close links with the 2006 coup makers and the PAD, from entering his office building and assuming the new position. A senior police contact told us that at the request of RCM51 and several MPs from the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party, the ranks of the protestors were filled out by redshirt supporters from neighboring provinces, and by family members of junior police officers, who remain sympathetic to their cause. A journalist told us Thaksin's younger sister, Yaowapa Wongsawat, played a key role in CHIANG MAI 00000024 002.2 OF 002 marshalling the MPs to support the protest. -------------- A Split in Red Ranks? -------------- ¶6. (U) In a separate development, another pro-Thaksin radio station has sprung up in Chiang Mai. It is run by radio program hosts who split from RCM51 and disavow the group's violent tactics. Publicly, its founders said they left RCM51 due to a lack of "transparent management" on the part of the group's leader. We have requested a meeting with this new group, and will report on that Septel. -------------- -------------- Migrants Caught in the Cross Fire -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Burmese migrant workers have also been in the spotlight of late. On February 7, a university student at Chiang Mai's Mae Jo University was raped and murdered, allegedly by two Burmese migrant workers. Immigration Police have since arrested approximately 100 workers, and have threatened to dismantle makeshift shelters in which many migrants working in the construction industry reside. Burmese exile media reports claim that workers who tried to avoid arrest were shot at and beaten, but the Human Rights Development Foundation (HRDF) did not corroborate these charges. ¶8. (SBU) According to HRDF, some migrant workers were sent from Chiang Mai to the Thai-Burma border by immigration police, but allowed to return for a fee of just over $100. Their return to Chiang Mai was reportedly facilitated by another branch of the police. Some of the workers arrested were allegedly set free in exchange for paying $230. (Comment: Those extorted to pay $230 were likely undocumented, and therefore illegally present in Thailand.) The murder suspect, who is currently in police custody, has not had access to legal counsel, but HRDF is trying to arrange a lawyer for him. ¶9. (U) In the wake of the February 7 murder, university students have petitioned Chiang Mai's Provincial Government to "take resolute action" against migrant workers. Though one of Chiang Mai's Vice Governors admitted that pressure for provincial authorities to do something to alleviate public concern is mounting, he told the press that police crackdowns on illegal workers and subsequent deportations would not provide a lasting solution. Absent a single organization empowered to handle migrant worker issues, he said the present situation necessitates that all interested parties jointly work out a comprehensive, viable plan to be implemented nationwide. ¶10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and Rangoon. MORROW