TAMIL NADU QUIET AFTER PRABHAKARAN'S DEATH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000151 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREL IN ASEC CE SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU QUIET AFTER PRABHAKARAN'S DEATH ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Mixed but moderate responses in Tamil Nadu followed the news of the death of Velupillai Prabhakaran, leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),from relief to indifference to occasional outright denial. Despite the efforts of political parties to turn concern over the Sri Lankan war into votes in Tamil Nadu, the issue had little impact on the recent elections. Fears of organized uprisings for the defeated LTTE turned out to be unwarranted, as sporadic and ineffectual episodes of protest fizzled out, and Tamils were left with only colorful conspiracy theories to mark the passing of the famed chief of the Tigers. The historic ties between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, only 30 miles apart, failed to inspire both voters and potential protesters, but security concerns still muted the commemoration of the 18th anniversary of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by an LTTE suicide bomber. Unease remains over what the few remaining LTTE supporters in the state might do. End summary. Sri Lanka was not an election issue -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The AIADMK-led coalition tried to make heavy weather of the LTTE cause during the recent election campaign, hoping to capitalize on rising pro-Tamil sentiment in the state as images of civilian casualties dominated the state's airwaves and newspapers. But the electorate did not buy it. The AIADMK alliance lost badly, falling far short of expectations it would win at least 30 seats in Tamil Nadu. The parties that most aggressively sought to take advantage of the Sri Lankan cause fared worst at the polls: the PMK lost all seven of the seats it contested; MDMK leader Vaiko could not even win in his hometown. With the just-released images of LTTE leader Prabhakaran's body flashing on the television in front of him, PMK Member of Parliament Ambumani Ramadoss said that "Sri Lanka is a non-issue in Tamil Nadu. The elections proved it." Ramadoss told us that he did not expect any widespread reaction to the LTTE leader's death and the end of the island nation's civil war. An editor with The Hindu echoed Ramadoss's remarks, saying that he feels there is little political support for the LTTE in the state. Prabhakaran's death doesn't provoke much reaction -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Some Indian Tamils and Sri Lankan Tamil refugees were reportedly upset by the news of Prabakharan's death, but fears of mob violence turned out to be unjustified. Security was tightened throughout Tamil Nadu, especially in coastal areas and around refugee camps. But 25 students blocking traffic, some apathetic stone-throwing, and one attempt to light a bus on fire and at self-immolation (the pro-LTTE protest technique most frequently used in the past) were the sum of local reaction. S.C. Chandrahasan, a leader of Tamil Nadu's Sri Lankan refugee community, said that news of Prabhakaran's death was met with sadness by many of the refugees who, despite their distaste for the LTTE's tactics, believe that Sri Lanka's Sinhala community will treat Tamils even more poorly with Prabhakaran gone. Chandrahasan added that the dominant sentiment is resignation, and that he does not believe there will be unrest in the refugee community in the wake of the LTTE's defeat. The fate of the Tamil internally displaced persons (IDPs),and not a Tamil "Eelam" or separate state, has now become the main rallying cry for the Sri Lankan Tamils Protection Movement, which organized rallies in Tirunelveli and Tuticorin (in southern and coastal Tamil Nadu), peaceably calling for UN intervention to monitor the treatment of Tamil IDPs in Sri Lanka. Diehards refuse to believe he's dead -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Some die-hard Prabakharan supporters in Tamil Nadu refuse to accept that the LTTE leader is dead. Assurances that Prabakharan was "hale and healthy" came from the Tamils' Protection Movement, as the MDMK's Vaiko refused to accept that the LTTE commander had been killed, and many speculated that the image shown on television was of one of Prabhakaran's body-doubles. Pro-LTTE voices first insisted on footage of the body, then denied that the footage was genuine, and now are demanding DNA verification of the remains. "It is a ploy," one refugee told reporters. As with sightings of Elvis, glimpses of the man Indian military experts call a "slippery character" are predicted but have not yet been confirmed. Security concerns lead to low-key Rajiv Gandhi commemoration -------------- CHENNAI 00000151 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) May 21 marked the 18th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi by an LTTE suicide bomber just outside of Chennai in Sriperumbudur, Tamil Nadu. This year no member of the Gandhi family traveled to the site to mark the anniversary. Media speculation centered around two possible explanations: that either the Gandhi family wanted to avoid the potential embarrassment of facing pro-LTTE protests or that security considerations kept them away. Karti Chidambaram, son of Home Minister P. Chidambaram, cited "security concerns" as the reason for the absence of the Gandhi family at the Sriperumbudur memorial. Chidambaram told us he believes the general public in Tamil Nadu is opposed to the LTTE, but that there are a thousand or so "radicalized young men" who could prove dangerous. B. Raman, a former Research and Analysis Wing official who follows the LTTE closely, wrote, "there are elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of Prabhakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger through terrorism. There is a need for a heightened alert for at least some months." ¶6. (SBU) Comment: The Sri Lankan civil war has long cast a shadow over Tamil Nadu. Revulsion over the Rajiv Gandhi assassination in 1991 moved support for the LTTE from polite society to the fringes of political discourse. Sentiment shifted temporarily back in the direction of the LTTE last year as Tamil civilian casualties mounted in Sri Lanka. The change in sentiment was shallow and short-lived: the parties that most vocally took up the Tamil cause lost badly in the recent elections. But the refusal of some in Tamil Nadu to believe Prabhakaran is dead demonstrates the depth of pro-LTTE sentiment on the far periphery of the state's political culture. Their numbers are likely quite small, but they may be willing to extend aid and comfort to elements of the LTTE fleeing their military defeat on the island. Tamil Nadu, which is a short boat ride away and where Sri Lankan Tamils can fairly easily blend, is a logical destination for the remnants of the defeated terrorist organization. End comment. KAPLAN