GUIYANG HOPES ARE HIGH UNDER ENTHUSIASTIC LEADER;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENGDU 000285 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/CM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EINV ELTN SOCI CH SUBJECT: GUIYANG HOPES ARE HIGH UNDER ENTHUSIASTIC LEADER; INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM COULD HELP ESCAPE FROM UNDERDEVELOPMENT REF: A) CHENGDU 237; B) CHENGDU 279; C) CHENGDU 277 CHENGDU 00000285 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (U) This cable contains sensitive but unclassified information - not for distribution on the internet. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: Brimming with confidence, Guiyang Vice-Mayor Li Zhong told Consul General recently that his city -- long the isolated capital of one of China's poorest provinces -- would catch up with the rest of the PRC over the next decade. Guiyang is now like two cities: one old and backward, hemmed in by mountains; the other new and modern, created on a huge, man-made plain. Guiyang's GDP grew 12.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009, well above the national average; Guizhou Province's GDP growth outpaced the national average in nine of the last 10 years. The Vice Mayor's optimism was based on: -- Guizhou's rich mineral (and hydroelectric) resources; --Guiyang's location at a crossroads between east and west China, and between north China and Southeast Asia; and, -- preferential national policies including the Great Western Development Strategy and the on-going stimulus plan, which have led to a road/rail infrastructure boom, and will lead to airport improvements. One negative for Guiyang is a weak university system. ¶3. (SBU) We believe the Vice Mayor's optimism is well placed, at least in the longer term: once the on-going road/rail/air build-out is completed, Guiyang will be much better positioned to finally break its geographical isolation, and attract higher-tech domestic and foreign investment to its low-wage economy. End Summary. Guiyang's Backwards Past and Hopeful Future -------------- ¶4. (U) Guiyang is a city in transition, where its backwards past collides with its future aspirations. Guiyang locals -- both in visa interviews in Chengdu, and on-the-ground in this provincial capital -- are often quick to disparage their hometown as poor and backwards relative to wealthier coastal cities, or even the southwestern cities of Kunming, Chongqing, and Chengdu. In a province that is 92 percent mountainous, the reminders of Guizhou's difficult topography are everywhere. The old part of town looks like a poor, mountainous, cramped, 700 year-old city with winding roads. Decrepit tenements are carved awkwardly into Karst rock formations, while even the modern buildings that have sprout up are often adjacent, to dusty, run-down alleys. Yet this old part of Guiyang is also undergoing large-scale up-grading of its major traffic arteries -- leading one to cautious optimism that life will improve, while for now leading to some of Southwest China's worst traffic congestion. (Note: As with many other Chinese cities, there is a car boom underway in Guiyang, with several hundred new cars registered daily. End Note.) ¶5. (U) Guiyang also has another, completely different face: modern and spacious, built on a man-made plateau 30 minutes from the old city. The new part of town has row after row, complex after complex, of tall, modern apartment and office buildings. A real estate boom is on-going, our Foreign Affairs Office (FAO) handlers told us, with a rapid rise in prices. Some of this boom (and speculation) is fueled by wealthy, out-of-province buyers, many of them older and retired or on the verge of it, who buy second (pied-a-terre) apartments so that they can enjoy the cool, pleasant summers in higher-altitude Guiyang. The city hall complex, designed by an American architectural firm, was grassy, treed, and spacious -- quite a contrast to the huge concrete boxes in other cities. Overall, we came away pleasantly surprised by Guiyang's potential, while also recognizing its persistent challenges. Guiyang's Vice Mayor: An Out-of-Province Party Apparatchik, But Still Impressive CHENGDU 00000285 002.2 OF 003 -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Li, a native of China's northern Shanxi province, was infectious in his optimism about Guiyang's future and, speaking without notes, displayed an impressive understanding of the issues facing his adopted city. Guiyang has 3.6 million people in its urban center, representing 64 percent of the overall population under the city's urban-rural administrative region. Through the first three quarters of 2009, Guiyang's total GDP reached 63.6 billion RMB, a 12.4 percent increase for the year. Li stated that, so far in 2009, the city had grown about two percentage points faster than Guizhou province, whose growth, in turn, was above the national average of 7.7 percent. ¶7. (SBU) 53.5 billion RMB in fixed asset investment was made in Guiyang in the first three quarters of 2009 to stimulate the economy and revitalize infrastructure, Li said. (Comment: Li's figures seem incongruous in that they imply that 84 percent of Guiyang's GDP in the first three quarters of 2009 were fixed asset investment. This fixed asset figure may be calculated differently from in the U.S., perhaps reflecting fixed investment project started (but not completed) during this period. Nevertheless, this huge figure -- and the bustle of construction cranes and road-building projects that we witnessed -- are suggestive that Guiyang, like many other cities in China, is in the midst of a stimulus-package-fueled infrastructure boom. End Comment.) Can Guiyang Catch Up? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Is Li right about Guiyang catching up? One thing for sure is that the city started from a low base. Guiyang is still significantly poorer than most provincial capitals, with urban per capita income of only 11,000 RMB, and rural per capita income of 4,033 RMB. While Guizhou province outpaced the national GDP growth rate nine of the last ten years, the gap in absolute inequality between Guizhou and the coastal provinces continued to grow wider over the past decade. Li acknowledged this gap, but expressed confidence that during the next decade, Guiyang (and Guizhou) would be able to catch up with wealthier cities and provinces. His optimism was based on: a. Preferential National Policies: Guizhou continues to benefit from China's "Great Western Development Strategy" which funnels resources into improved infrastructure, ecological protection, and commerce. Guizhou, which only represents three percent of China's population, also received a disproportionate four percent of the central government's recent economic stimulus package. (Note and Comment: Premier Wen Jiabao said October 16 in Chengdu that Beijing planned to increase fiscal transfers and preferential tax and other policies in a new 10-year western China development plan starting January 1, 2010 (ref A). This bodes well for beneficiary cities and provinces such as Guiyang and Guizhou. End Note and Comment.) b. Rich Natural Resources: With over 240 different types of mineral deposits, Guizhou is one of China's richest provinces in mineral resources -- wealth that benefits its provincial capital. Coal and phosphorous are especially important; for example, Guizhou has the largest phosphorus mine in Asia. (See also ref B, which discusses Guizhou's huge hydroelectric potential.) c. Infrastructure: Guizhou has made huge improvements to its infrastructure over the past 10 years, which much more on the way. 87 counties in Guizhou will be connected with expressways, most that link up with Guiyang, which will aid their nascent tourism industry. Beijing recently approved the construction of a new Guiyang Airport, which will bring in 3.7 billion RMB in investment to create Guizhou's first truly international airport. CHENGDU 00000285 003.2 OF 003 d. Good Location: Guiyang (and Guizhou) are at a geographic crossroads connecting east and west China, as well as northern China with Southeast Asia. Officials hope to capitalize on the city's (and province's) geographic position through improved infrastructure. New Development Zones Bring Hope of Higher Tech in Future -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Two new national-level development zones also underlie Li's hopes for a modern (and ecologically-friendly) city: the Guiyang High-Tech Zone and the Guiyang Economic Development Zone. The former primarily emphasizes high-tech companies, while the latter emphasizes manufacturing and industry. There are currently 57 high-tech companies operating in the High-Tech Zone, none of them large and famous, including several from the UK, Singapore, and Taiwan. Many of these "high-tech" companies are in the pharmaceutical sector, including producers of traditional Chinese medicines. Guiyang is home to over 70 pharmaceutical factories, Li explained, but they lack the necessary technology and management skill to compete in foreign markets. ¶10. (SBU) Guiyang officials hope to leverage these economic zones to attract more foreign investment in the future, particularly in the area of technology. Li pointed out that more and more companies are migrating from China's eastern provinces further inland to the western provinces including Guizhou. He made an interesting aside, stating that projects in heavy-polluting sectors are "not welcome" in Guiyang due to its "Ecologically Civilized City" initiative (ref C). (Comment: The fact that Li was unable to cite any well known multinationals as having located manufacturing or R&D facilities in these high-tech zones suggests that they have not been very successful. However, we believe that once the on-going road/rail build-out is completed, Guiyang and Guizhou will be much better positioned to attract high-tech foreign investment to its low-wage economy. End Comment.) One Drag on Economy: Weak University System -------------- ¶11. (SBU) One weak point of Guiyang (and Guizhou) is the poor quality of its relatively small network of universities. Guiyang only has 12 colleges and universities, Li lamented, and none is considered a "National Key University" (Comment: "Guojia Zhongdian Daxue" is a now defunct term which used to refer to prestigious universities that received direct support from the central government. In this context, Li likely meant that Guizhou lacks any universities directly managed by the Chinese Ministry of Education. End Comment.) ¶12. (SBU) Li said that Guiyang was trying to upgrade its higher-educational system. Guizhou University recently became a top-100 university in the rigid Chinese ranking system. Five years ago, no colleges or universities were under the management of the Guiyang city government, but now the city government manages Guiyang University and Guiyang Technical College. Guiyang needs more support from Beijing on higher-education, however, to help it catch up. BROWN