WHERE'S HUGO?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000680 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: WHERE'S HUGO? CARACAS 00000680 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chavez disappeared from national view May 30, missing the last half of a planned four-day marathon speech and the June 1 inauguration of the incoming President of El Salvador, Mauricio Funes. State-owned media outlets claimed technical issues were to blame for the suspension of Chavez's broadcast while Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro revived claims of an assassination plot to account for Chavez's absence from the inauguration. The local press, however, is speculating that Chavez has simply been suffering from a routine stomach bug. Chavez's preeminence is so marked in Venezuelan politics, that even when absent, he dominates the local media. End Summary. -------------- WHERE'S CHAVEZ? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Without notice, Chavez did not appear on the last two of his pledged four-day marathon TV and radio "en cadena" broadcasts May 30 and 31, which he scheduled to commemorate ten years of his weekly "Alo, Presidente" talk show. He also missed the June 1 inauguration of the new FMLN President of El Salvador, Mauricio Funes. The Venezuelan government issued no explanation for the first day of his absence, and state-owned Venezolana TV (VTV) claimed "technical reasons" for the suspension of Chavez's broadcast May 31 which was to have been given from Guarico State. Local media reported rumors that Chavez had been laid low by stomach troubles due to eating some bad cheese. ¶3. (C) Some local observers claim Alo Presidente was canceled because Chavez had painted himself into a corner. On May 27-28, a local NGO held a conference that invited leading political analysts, including Peruvians Mario and Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Bolivian Jore Quiroga and Mexican Jore Casteneda, to opine on the current state of democracy in Venezuela. During the conference, they all claimed that Chavez had limited democracy and was moving to, or had already achieved, dictatorial rule. Chavez reacted by criticizing them as aging oligarchs and political dinosaurs, and then publicly challenging them to a debate at the Miraflores Presidential Palace. They accepted, so long as it would be a one on one debate with Mario Vargas Llosa. Chavez then reneged, saying at first he was but a simple soldier and would not debate intellectuals, and then hardened his posture claiming that he'd only debate a fellow President. ¶4. (SBU) Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicolas Maduro announced the evening of June 1 that Chavez had not traveled to San Salvador as planned due to a possible threat against him, which he termed a "security risk." He blamed the alleged plot on "desperate sectors" of the Venezuelan political opposition and members of the "ultra-right." VTV followed Maduro's comments by naming several people allegedly implicated in the plot including: opposition activist Alejandro Pena Esclusa, 2002 coup participant and former Vice-Admiral Carlos Molina Tamayo (who was granted political asylum by El Salvador),and Cuban-Venezuelan emigre Luis Posada Carriles (currently in the United States). ¶5. (SBU) The local media gave prominent coverage to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's June 1 announcement that Chavez had planned to travel with Bolivian President Evo Morales to the inauguration, but that "for strict reasons of security, which we are not going to discuss in detail, Chavez isn't here, nor was he this morning or this afternoon." Ortega noted his esteem for the Salvadorian security and intelligence forces, but warned that El Salvador has been the staging ground for high-level assassinations in the past. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Given the fanfare preceding Chavez's planned four-day speech and the suspension of the broadcast without warning, it seems plausible that health reasons are to blame. Some local pundits speculate that Chavez canceled the Alo Presidente marathon to avoid facing Mario Vargas Llosa in a one to one debate, and he skipped the Funes inauguration because Funes is publicly aligning himself with Brazilian President Lula, rather than Chavez's Bolivarian revolution. The GBRV, however, appears to be making savvy use of the media speculation surrounding Chavez's disappearance by CARACAS 00000680 002.2 OF 002 turning it into yet another allegation of an opposition-sponsored assassination plot -- even managing to needle the United States indirectly with the absurd suggestion that Posada Carriles was involved. Interestingly, even when the usually loquacious Venezuelan president disappears from public view, he still dominates the local news. CAULFIELD