CHAVEZ GOES AFTER OPPOSITION LEADER ROSALES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000418 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2029 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ GOES AFTER OPPOSITION LEADER ROSALES REF: CARACAS 000322 CARACAS 00000418 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) continues to go after emblematic targets among the democratic opposition, including Maracaibo Mayor and 2006 opposition presidential candidate Manuel Rosales. As of March 31, rumors abound regarding whether Rosales, who is being tried on politically-motivated corruption charges, has fled Venezuela to seek political asylum. Opposition contacts have made informal inquiries about USG asylum policy, ostensibly on Rosales' behalf. Rosales' flight or arrest would be damaging to an opposition already suffering from infighting and an ongoing campaign by the GBRV to harass and undermine opposition state and local governments elected in November 2008. End Summary. -------------- ROSALES READY TO FLEE VENEZUELA? -------------- ¶2. (C) As of mid-day March 31, rumors were swirling that Rosales had fled the country and may be planning to seek political asylum. United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) National Assembly Deputy Carlos Escarra announced late on March 30 that Rosales had fled to Panama by sea, and PAO received similar information from opposition-oriented Globovision media outlet the following day. However, Globovision owner Alberto Federico Ravell told PAO March 31 that Rosales had not, in fact, left Venezuela. A Zulia State government official confirmed the same privately to Poloff, and Zulia Governor Pablo Perez publicly rejected the rumor, telling Union Radio March 31 that "Manuel is working and of course meeting with his defense lawyers, awaiting the judge to fix his preliminary (court) hearing." ¶3. (C) Ravell had previously contacted PAO March 29 and raised the possibility of Rosales seeking asylum in the United States. He presumably would enter the United States on his recently renewed B1/B2 visa. PAO emphasized that DHS adjudicates asylum cases. Ravell said that Rosales' political advisors had counseled him to remain in Venezuela and take a stand against Chavez's intimidation tactics, but his friends and family were advising him not to be a political martyr. Ravell personally favored Rosales staying, but noted that there was no unity within the opposition and nobody was willing to sacrifice themselves on Rosales' behalf. He added that Rosales' chief political strategist, Timoteo Zambrano, may contact WHA A/S Shannon directly to discuss the issue further. ¶4. (C) Globovision foreign policy commentator Julio Cesar Pineda pressed the Charge late on March 30 at a public event for information on U.S. asylum policy and visas. Charge stressed that the Embassy does not offer asylum and referred him to the DHS for more information on how those in the U.S. may claim asylum. Pineda then turned his attention to the Austrian Ambassador, also asking about political asylum. The Ambassador finally conceded that he was unaware of European Union law that automatically grants asylum, but said that if someone showed up in the Austrian Embassy, he would have to seek guidance from Vienna on how to proceed. Pineda appeared to be seeking information in a professional rather than personal capacity, and could be intending to use it for his popular daily show on Globovision, "Brujula Internacional." -------------- THE CHARGES -------------- ¶5. (C) After months of threats from Chavez, a prosecutor issued a request for an arrest warrant for Rosales March 19 for allegations of illicit enrichment during his tenure as governor of Zulia State (2000-2008). (Note: To the best of our knowledge, no judge has yet acted on this request. In fact the head of CICPC, the Venezuelan equivalent of the FBI, announced March 31 that he had not received an arrest warrant but would proceed with the arrest once he receives it. End Note.) Even if the charges are valid, the GBRV's selective prosecution of Rosales appears to be strictly politically motivated. Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party has called the warrant request "political persecution" and criticized the movement of the court proceedings from Maracaibo to Caracas -- on the grounds that Rosales and his supporters would be able to influence local judges in his home state of Zulia. In an interview with state-owned Venezolana de TV, PSUV National Assembly Deputy Mario Isea announced March 27 that Rosales was seeking to "victimize" himself in order to justify his hiding or flight from the country. The same day, Chavez called Rosales' opposition supporters "immoral" and "mafiosos" and asserted that Rosales "is an example of the degradation of ethical values." ¶6. (C) Finger-pointing within the opposition continues to undermine its efforts to unify. UNT foreign policy advisor Yenny De Freitas privately complained March 25 that Carabobo Governor Henrique Salas Feo had not stepped up to support Rosales and was hurting efforts to form cohesion within the broader opposition movement. Other political pundits have similarly questioned the extent of Nueva Esparta Governor Morel Rodriguez's solidarity. He is widely perceived as an outlier within the opposition who may be seeking some accommodation with the central government. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The political opposition looks particularly vulnerable right now, and the flight of opposition leader Rosales -- if it happens -- will make him look both guilty and extremely weak. His absence, be it from flight or arrest, would greatly undercut Zulia State Governor Pablo Perez, who is widely perceived to be a stand-in for Rosales (who was ineligible to run for a third gubernatorial term). Chavez could also decide to issue arrest warrants for other prominent members of the opposition to keep them cowed, including reinitiating the legal proceedings against Miranda State Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski for charges that he was involved in inciting violence outside of the Cuban Embassy during the April 2002 coup. CAULFIELD