NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RECONVENES TO CONSOLIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000312 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2029 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY RECONVENES TO CONSOLIDATE CHAVEZ'S POWER CARACAS 00000312 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: After a two-month recess to campaign for President Chavez's successful February 15 referendum, the Chavista-dominated National Assembly (AN) reconvened and announced March 10 a slate of proposed legislation intended to consolidate the Venezuelan President's power even further. The AN said it would authorize the postponement of municipal-level elections slated for August 2009 and create a new Vice President of Caracas position. This new figure, to be appointed by Chavez, would undermine the authority of the recently elected opposition mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma, as well as the four -- of five total -- borough-level Caracas mayorships held by the opposition. The AN is also dusting off the proposed Law of International Cooperation, which would give the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) considerable authority to both register (and not register) NGOs and distribute international assistance as GBRV officials see fit. The AN perceives its role as supporting Chavez unconditionally and can be expected to pass quickly any laws blessed (if not written) by Chavez. End Summary. -------------- DRAFT LAWS WOULD GIVE CHAVEZ EVEN MORE POWER -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During his March 9 broadcast of "Alo, Presidente," President Chavez sharply criticized the Venezuelan legislature, asking rhetorically "What does (the AN) do?" and suggested that he would make laws himself to accelerate his Bolivarian revolution. AN President Celia Flores subsequently denied the AN is considering another Enabling Law to allow the Venezuelan president to issue decree-laws. Instead, she rolled out the AN's 2009 agenda which includes 97 "projects" and 43 proposed new laws. Local press attention has focused on the proposed Organic Law of the Capital District to create the new post of Caracas Vice President. The new office would be appointed by Chavez and would be designed to have powers akin to a governorship. Opposition Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma called the proposal a "Ledezma law" intended to "neutralize" his election in November, in which he defeated Chavez loyalist Aristobulo Isturiz. ¶3. (C) The Foreign Policy Commission is also set to resume discussion of the controversial draft International Cooperation Law. Previous drafts of the law would require NGOs to be recognized by the GBRV and would have allowed the GBRV to distribute international assistance according to the GBRV's priorities and plans. Local analysts anticipate that such rules would discourage most international donors from trying to work with Venezuelan NGOs. It would also greatly complicate USAID's democracy and human rights promotion programs as well as NAS's demand reduction efforts. NGOs could conceivably circumvent such a law by setting up consulting firms, but they would then be subject to taxation. The AN refrained from passing this law in 2006 and 2007 after numerous foreign governments, particularly in Europe and Canada, expressed concerns. The other proposed new laws to be debated in the AN include reforms or new laws addressing the judicial process, the Supreme Court, the Venezuelan foreign service, corruption, taxes, and "social property" issues. ¶4. (SBU) Flores announced March 9 that nation-wide municipal council elections, slated for August 2009, would be postponed until the latter half of 2010. She pledged that the Organic Laws of Suffrage and of Municipal Power would be reformed by the legislative body to permit the delay. The planned election for the governorship of Amazonas State, also scheduled for August, would be postponed as well. PPT Political Secretary Simon Calzadilla criticized the decision as illegal because it would expand the term of the current Amazonas governor, Liborio Guarrulla, past the constitutionally stipulated five years. National coordinator of the opposition Primero Justicia (PJ) party Richard Arteaga called on the National Electoral Council (CNE) March 10 to comply with the Organic Law of Municipal Public Power and set a date for local council elections. Article 82 of the law stipulates that local officials are permitted a four-year term, which would expire in August 2009. Arteaga argued that only the CNE, and not the AN, has the authority to regulate electoral issues. CARACAS 00000312 002.2 OF 002 -------------- AN POLITICIZED -------------- ¶5. (C) During a March 11 meeting with Poloff, AN staffer Jesus Escalona lamented the politicization in the legislature, adding that even meeting publicly with a USG official, no matter what the reason, could cost him his job. Escalona, who joined the AN in 2004 and is a lawyer by training, said he personally reviews each proposed law to ensure it is legally sound. He complained, however, that his legal expertise is generally ignored and conceded that what eventually is promulgated often does not resemble what he has reviewed and signed off on, suggesting that Chavez amends the legislation after the fact. Escalona noted that he voted for Chavez but disagrees with radicalizing Chavez's "revolution" and expressed real concern about the AN's upcoming agenda. -------------- POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF POSTPONING ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Accion Democratica (AD) President Victor Bolivar told Polcouns March 11 that the BGRV's decision to postpone local elections could help pro-government parties in several ways. Bolivar speculated that merging local elections with those slated for the AN in 2010 would allow Chavez to campaign at a national level for his PSUV deputies, and the impact of the electoral effort would then trickle down to the community council races. Bolivar noted that many of the community councils in areas where the opposition won mayorships in November 2008 are dominated by Chavistas, so waiting a year gives them an opportunity to challenge the new mayors and presumably undermine their efforts to govern. At the same time, some pundits suggest that the extra time give the opposition more time to try to reach agreement on consensus candidates, something they generally failed to do in the November 2008 mayoral and state legislature races. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The pro-government members of the National Assembly constitute an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly after the opposition foolishly boycotted parliamentary elections in 2005. Virtually the entire body of Venezuela's unicameral legislature believes their role is to support President Chavez unconditionally, and not to provide a check on executive power. Consequently, if Chavez makes good on his promise to "accelerate the revolution," the AN can be expected to pass quickly any legislation that the Venezuelan president requests. The bulk of the proposed 2009 legislative agenda would concentrate even more authority in the presidency and weaken democratic institutions considerably. The International Cooperation Law, in particular, would severely weaken Venezuela's active NGO community and the USG's ability to support civil society. ¶8. (C) Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma has complained repeatedly -- and with justification -- that the Venezuelan government and Chavez supporters are sabotaging his efforts to govern, even preventing him from physically occupying certain mayoral offices. His position is widely considered the second most high profile political job in Venezuela, next to the presidency. Chavez's ability to appoint a Caracas VP with governor-like powers, and presumably budgetary control, will almost certainly undermine Ledezma's authority as well as his political ambitions. A Caracas VP would also weaken the four opposition Caracas borough mayors, including rising opposition star and Sucre Mayor Carlos Ocariz. CAULFIELD