NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL DELAYS DECISION ON VOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001605

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/12/31
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL DELAYS DECISION ON VOTING
DISTRICTS

REF: CARACAS 1419

CLASSIFIED BY: Robin Meyer, Political Counselor; REASON: 1.4(D)


1. (C) On December 29, Venezuela's National Electoral Council
(CNE) announced that despite its earlier promise to release
information about the revised boundaries of voting districts before
the end of 2009 (reftel),it would instead do so by January 20,

2010. The information about the revised districts has been eagerly
sought by the parties that comprise the opposition "unity table"
("mesa de unidad"). The unity table has claimed it cannot
identify potential unified opposition candidates for the September
26, 2010 National Assembly elections until the districts in which
the candidates will run are established. The redistricting exercise
was mandated by the country's new electoral law (LOPE) that was
passed in July 2009, the provisions of which enhance the potential
for gerrymandering by the CNE.




2. (SBU) In announcing the delayed release, CNE President
Tibisay Lucena affirmed that the five rectors had been working
"tirelessly" to complete their deliberations about the districts.
She also highlighted that the boundaries had already been agreed
upon for 13 of Venezuela's 24 states, such that only work on 11
states remained. (Note: The 13 states cited were Amazonas, Apure,
Cojedes, Delta Amacuro, Falcon, Merida, Monagas, Nueva Esparta,
Portuguesa, Trujillo, Sucre, Yaracuy, and Vargas. These are mostly
rural and generally more pro-Chavez states; only Nueva Esparta is
run by an opposition governor. End Note.) Citing confidential
sources, local press reported that the principal reason for the
delayed release was the rectors' lack of an agreed-upon method for
determining the boundaries. Lone independent rector Vicente Diaz
reportedly brought two possible redistricting scenarios to the
table, while the four Chavista rectors (Lucena, Sandra Oblitas,
Socorro Hernandez and Tania D'Amelio) brought three others; the
five proposals reportedly had different criteria and methods.




3. (C) Comment: While the opposition parties complained to
the media about the delay after the CNE's announcement, the
additional three weeks should not complicate matters significantly.
However, any further delay would be cause for concern, as the CNE's
proposed window for holding primaries will be open only between
March 1-April 30. The list of states that have been finalized is
more interesting for what it does not contain - the most populous
and pro-opposition states of Miranda, Carabobo, Zulia, and Tachira.
End Comment.
DUDDY