CHAVEZ SENDS TOUGH MESSAGE ON COLOMBIA PRIOR TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001137 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER CO VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ SENDS TOUGH MESSAGE ON COLOMBIA PRIOR TO UNASUR REF: CARACAS 1120 Classified By: Political Counselor Robin D. Meyer for Reason 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. During an August 25 televised address, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro to start preparations for a rupture with Colombia. This latest episode of brinkmanship appears targeted at multiple audiences -- his domestic constituency, Colombia, and Brazilian President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva. He hopes that turning up the heat with Colombia will energize his domestic base, perhaps distracting it from poor economic news and his recent, controversial series of laws that further centralize power. By threatening to curtail Venezuelan-Colombian trade, Chavez hopes to put pressure on Colombian President Uribe. Lastly, Chavez' threat may even be putting Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio "Lula" Da Silva on notice that Brazil's interests are also at risk as Lula has said his primary goal is maintaining UNASUR unity. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a televised awards ceremony for departing Cuban Ambassador German Sanchez Otero the evening of August 25, Chavez told FM Maduro to "prepare for a break in relations with Colombia. It's going to happen." Chavez has on several previous occasions used an invented external threat from Colombia to divert attention from a difficult domestic situation and to energize his base. Chavez' allegations of a vast conspiracy by President Uribe, the "Colombian oligarchs" and the "American empire" make a convenient scapegoat for Venezuela's economic troubles, including talk of a currency devaluation and increased gasoline prices, and the robust political opposition to the controversial series of laws that he has recently rammed through the National Assembly. ¶3. (C) Chavez' threat also is intended to undermine President Uribe, with whom Chavez has long had a tense relationship. Uribe deprived Chavez of his role as regional peacemaker when Chavez was dismissed as facilitator between Colombia and the FARC. The Colombian airstrike against the FARC camp in Ecuador killed Raul Reyes, "a good revolutionary" in Chavez's opinion, and revealed Venezuelan links to the FARC and provoked a mobilization on the border. The revelation that Swedish anti-tank rockets sold to Venezuela were in the hands of the FARC already led to relations being "put in the freezer." Chavez has tried to put in place replacements for the vigorous Venezuelan-Colombian trade relationship, which amounts to about $7 billion a year. ¶4. (C) Lastly, Chavez' threat indirectly challenges Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio "Lula" Da Silva, who identified regional stability and UNASUR unity as his priorities for the August 28 meeting in Bariloche, Argentina. Lula classified the meeting as a "great opportunity to show South America is working for peace. Chavez, on the other hand, has called reconciliation with Colombia "impossible" as long as there was a military agreement with the United States. Chavez's threat of breaking relations with Colombia, with the possible concurrence of his client states Bolivia and Ecuador, would be a significant blemish on UNASUR and Lula's leadership in the region. By announcing the "rupture" in advance, Chavez may also have intended to pressure Lula to be supportive of the Venezuelan position on the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) or risk his goal of UNASUR unity. ¶5. (C) Comment: Chavez' threat to "rupture" relations with Colombia does not appear to be succeeding in revving up his base, if the poor pro-government turnout at the August 22 demonstrations is any indication (reftel). However, the DCA has dominated the government-controlled television channel, which has the widest reach within Venezuela. and it seems likely that Chavez will continue to hammer away at Colombia no matter what comes out of the UNASUR meeting in Bariloche. End Comment. DUDDY