ZULIA'S ECONOMY STRUGGLES WITH ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001091 SIPDIS ENERGY FOR CDAY AND ALOCKWOOD HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD TREASURY FOR MKACZMAREK NSC FOR RKING USDOC FOR 4332 MAC/ITA/WH/JLAO E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: ECON PGOV VE SUBJECT: ZULIA'S ECONOMY STRUGGLES WITH ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND EXPROPRIATIONS REF: A. CARACAS 581 ¶B. 2008 CARACAS 1453 ¶C. CARACAS 368 ¶D. CARACAS 1055 ¶E. CARACAS 994 ¶F. CARACAS 330 Classified By: Economic Counselor Darnall Steuart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The economy of Zulia, a major oil-producing area and Venezuela's most populous state, is suffering from long-standing Venezuelan government (GBRV) economic policies, the current economic downturn, and GBRV actions that appear to target Zulia specifically, such as the recent expropriation of dozens of oilfield services companies. While two years ago the country's booming economy, fueled by high government spending and private consumption, masked the impact of GBRV economic policies, today's outlook is grim for Zulia. Economic activity is down, and the state and municipal governments are having to cut back significantly on infrastructure investment spending. While many in Zulia believe the GBRV is purposefully exacting revenge on the state for voting against President Chavez, there have been no widespread protests against GBRV policies, in part because those affected fear they will be further punished for protesting. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Econoff visited Zulia August 12-14, meeting with businesspeople affiliated with VenAmCham and the Chamber of Commerce; two representatives of small oilfield service companies (which were not expropriated); and staff from Zulia's governor's office and from the municipality of Lagunillas on the east side of Lake Maracaibo. The Zulia governor and the mayor of Lagunillas are both from the opposition. -------------- Public Sector Cutbacks -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As with other state governments, Zulia state's revenue comes almost entirely from constitutionally mandated transfers from the central government (ref B). As a result of a revision of the central government's budget in March (ref C),Zulia's revenues are down roughly 30 percent from what was budgeted in January. According to members of the governor's economic staff, the governor is trying to maintain spending on social programs, health, and security while cutting back on infrastructure spending and publicity. The local government of Lagunillas municipality, which has roughly 200,000 residents and was home to many of the service companies expropriated by the GBRV, is in a similar situation. Although it receives mandated transfers from the central government, the bulk of its revenue comes from a variety of local taxes. Thanks largely to the loss of tax revenue from the expropriated companies (as PDVSA, which confiscated the companies, is exempt from paying local taxes),the mayor's staff project municipal revenue will be 30 percent under budget for 2009. The municipality plans to cut investment spending, for example on road improvements, by 50 percent. -------------- Private Sector: Insult to Injury -------------- ¶4. (C) The businesspeople Econoff met were grim about their economic prospects. In line with national trends, they noted sales of many items were down, official dollars for imports were impossible to obtain, and they were forced to spend more and more management time on increased GBRV inspections. According to an owner of one of the expropriated companies, PDVSA has not made a compensation offer to any of the companies. The two representatives of smaller oilfield services companies which had not been expropriated said PDVSA and PDVSA-controlled joint ventures had paid arrears, although in one case PDVSA had paid the dollar portion of the arrears in bolivars at the official exchange rate (an unsustainable situation for this company). They noted that CARACAS 00001091 002 OF 002 Halliburton, a larger oilfield services company, was behind on its payments to some of its smaller contractors, presumably because PDVSA had not paid Halliburton in full. (Note: The information provided by these service company representatives, namely that PDVSA has paid off many of its smaller debts but not necessarily its larger ones (e.g., to Halliburton) is consistent with what we have heard from other sources - septel. End note.) Business and local government contacts reported PDVSA had hired some workers from the expropriated companies but was offering salaries of, in some cases, just 25 percent of what the workers had made previously. In addition to their toll on oil production (ref D),the expropriations and late payments had clearly hurt the broader economy, with Lagunillas municipality staff estimating a 40 percent decline in general economic activity in the municipality. -------------- Fearing to Speak Out -------------- ¶5. (C) Citing the expropriations, President Chavez's recent targeting of trade with Colombia (part of which passes through Zulia; ref E),and the GBRV's seizure of transportation infrastructure in Zulia and other mainly opposition states (ref F),many of our contacts claimed the GBRV was targeting Zulia economically for its history of voting against President Chavez. When asked why there was no broad public reaction against GBRV actions, most contacts responded with a single word: "fear." Business owners fear they will be targeted with inspections or worse if they speak out (or, in the case of the expropriated companies, that they will never receive any compensation),and now-unemployed workers fear they will lose any chance of being hired by PDVSA if they protest. The governor's staff said the governor had chosen to take a non-confrontational approach, seeking to "ameliorate rather than ignite" the situation. (Note: The fate of the previous governor is perhaps instructive. Faced with criminal charges over alleged corruption, he chose exile in Peru. End note.) Lagunillas municipality staff took a slightly more confrontational approach, blaming the GBRV when discussing with residents the reasons infrastructure spending was stalled. They also claimed several hundred unemployed workers had sought to travel in buses to Caracas to protest the expropriations but were turned back. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Signs of economic decline were evident to a first-time visitor to the east side of Lake Maracaibo, with few customers in stores or restaurants and several unfinished projects and closed factories visible from the roadside. The state secretary for economic development spoke of a "progressive dismantling" of industrial activity in Zulia, a process he said had been ongoing for 10 or more years and was related to Venezuela's oil-dependent economic model. In addition to this underlying process, Zulia's economy, like that of the rest of Venezuela, has been hit by an economic slowdown, greater physical and legal insecurity, and ever-increasing government control over economic activity, with the recent expropriations affecting Zulia disproportionately. Given this context, it would not be surprising if resentment against GBRV policies, and perhaps President Chavez himself, is evident, even if people are afraid to speak out. End comment. DUDDY